Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 30, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are an absurd 27-4 (+20.48 units) when he starts as a road favorite of -133 or higher in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-142 at ATH)
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-230 or more) have gone 53-13 SU (+19.17 units, ROI: 29%) since the start of the 2020 season.
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-235 vs COL)
Since the start of the 2025 season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) but a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 263-349 for -86.19 units (ROI: -14.1%) when not matched up against the same.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+111 at NYM)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 199-156 for +4.44 units and an ROI of +1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-119 at STL), BOSTON (-135 at NYY), NY METS (-119 vs HOU)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 57-50 for -9.52 units for an ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+142 at CHC), SEATTLE (-129 at TOR)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 79-123 for -47.83 units and an ROI of -23.7%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+111 at NYM)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 134-198 start for -24.18 after losing about 33.5 units over the last ten weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+111 vs PIT), ATHLETICS (+132 vs BAL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 42-21 but for -9.8 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (-235 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 35-22 start for -15.73 units, and an ROI of -27.6%!
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-235 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 279-334 for -18.73 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 88-87, +15.46 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+104 at WSH), TORONTO (+121 vs SEA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+106 at MIN), SAN DIEGO (+148 at TB), LA ANGELS (+158 vs PHI)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 233-155 for +49.96 units, an ROI of +12.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-119 at STL), NY METS (-119 vs HOU)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 72-95 for -23.02 units and a solid ROI of -13.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-112 vs MIA), TAMPA BAY (-159 vs SD), KANSAS CITY (+168 at CLE), PHILADELPHIA (-170 at LAA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 140-163 for -1.67 units. However, it has lost -14.97 units over the last month and a half.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+217 at ATL), SEATTLE (-129 at TOR), MINNESOTA (-114 vs CWS), TEXAS (+147 at MIL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 478-501 but for +32.97 units and an ROI of 3.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+217 at ATL), SEATTLE (-135 at TOR), MINNESOTA (-114 vs CWS), TEXAS (+151 at MIL), LA ANGELS (+158 vs PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 417-473 but for +88.85 units and an ROI of 10% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+168 at CLE), TEXAS (+151 at MIL), HOUSTON (+111 at NYM), CINCINNATI (+142 at CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 172-71 for +13.48 units and an ROI of 6.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-181 vs KC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2216-2091 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.67 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (+111 vs BOS), CHICAGO CUBS (-153 vs CIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2281-2865 (44.3%) for -269.91 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+207 at ATL), LA DODGERS (-154 at DET), BOSTON (-119 at NYY), HOUSTON (+111 at NYM)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 678-571 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +14.71 units, for an ROI of 1.2%.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (+111 vs BOS)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 400-200 (66.7%) for +61.16 units and an ROI of 10.2%!
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-153 vs CIN)
Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 43-146 SU for -44.45 units (ROI: -23.5%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+217 at ATL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 335-344 run (+14.79 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-114 vs CWS), LA ANGELS (+158 vs PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 274-177 in their last 451 tries (+46.29 units, ROI: 10.3%).
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-235 vs COL)
Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-230 or more) have gone 53-13 SU (+19.17 units, ROI: 29%) since the start of the 2020 season.
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-235 vs COL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 573-565 for +18.43 units, good for +1.6% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: COLORADO +217 (+24 diff), TORONTO +121 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE -158 (+33 diff), PITTSBURGH -119 (+21), PHILADELPHIA -170 (+16)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 21-14-2 for +4.68 units and an ROI of 13.4%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: PHI-LAA OVER 7.5 (+1.2)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 117-92 for +13.55 units and an ROI of 6.5%. TODAY’s MATCHES:
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIA-WSH UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), HOU-NYM UNDER 9 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(955) PITTSBURGH (66-71) at (956) ST LOUIS (68-69)
Trend: Over the total is 19-7 (+11.40 units) with starter Braxton Ashcraft since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-STL (o/u at 7.5)
(957) CINCINNATI (64-72) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (77-59)
Trend: CIN is 32-49 (-8.91 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend: CHC is 42-19 (+14.36 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-153 vs CIN)
(961) SEATTLE (64-72) at (962) TORONTO (67-70)
Trend: SEA is 25-43 (-20.06 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at TOR)
Trend: Max Scherzer’s teams are 26-11 (+10.40 units) in the last 37 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+121 vs SEA)
(967) BALTIMORE (67-69) at (968) ATHLETICS (53-83)
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are an absurd 27-4 (+20.48 units) when he starts as a road favorite of -133 or higher in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-142 at ATH)
Trend: Over the total is 39-26-3 (+10.40 units) in ATH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-ATH (o/u at 10)
(969) SAN DIEGO (72-64) at (970) TAMPA BAY (81-54)
Trend: Under the total is 23-14-2 (+7.50 units) when TB is a home favorite of -115 or higher with starter Drew Rasmussen since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-TB (o/u at 7)
(975) PHILADELPHIA (76-60) at (976) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-84)
Trend: PHI is 32-13 (+12.08 units) in the last 45 day game starts by Zack Wheeler
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-170 at LAA)
Trend: PHI is 26-40 (-16.48 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at LAA)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi’s teams are 17-14 (+9.89 units) when he starts as a day game underdog of +105 or more in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+158 vs PHI)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #21: Colorado at Atlanta, Fri 8/28-Sun 8/30
Trend: ATLANTA has won 25 of the last 31 games against Colorado (80.6%, +8.87 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 28.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-235 vs COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:05 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-159 vs SD), LA DODGERS (-154 at DET), MILWAUKEE (-162 vs TEX), NY METS (-119 vs HOU), PHILADELPHIA (-170 at LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-114 vs CWS), NY METS (-119 vs HOU)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, August 31)
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