Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 14 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
12:15 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-115, 9)
The Nationals (65-73) have won the first two games of this four-game series, dominating the opener 9-2 as +125 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 5-4 in extras as +100 home dogs.
In this early afternoon rematch, the Marlins (68-68) start righty Janson Junk (6-8, 4.21 ERA) and the Nationals (65-73) tap lefty Andrew Alvarez (2-6, 3.72 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -105 odds.
The public is split down the middle and can’t decide who to take. However, despite this 50/50 moneyline ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Nationals move from a -105 home pick’em to a -115 home favorite.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the 10-cent move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with Washington at home.
At Circa, the Nationals are receiving 63% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Home favorites priced -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Nationals here, are 153-99 (61%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Sunday home favorites off a win who missed the playoffs the previous season are 67-31 (68%) with a 15% ROI this season. Sunday home favorites priced -150 or less are 87-57 (60%) with an 8% ROI this season.
The Nationals have the more productive offense, scoring 718 runs compared to 588 for Miami.
Alvarez has posted a 3.00 ERA in five August starts, allowing only 9 earned runs in 27 innings pitched. He has posted a 2.14 ERA during the day compared to 4.24 at night.
Meanwhile, Junk has posted a 5.12 ERA on the road compared to 3.62 at home.
Miami is only hitting .235 against lefties this season, ranking 24th out of 30 MLB teams.
1:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-185, 7.5)
The Royals (62-75) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 3-0 as +120 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 8-3 as +145 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Royals send out righty Seth Lugo (6-7, 4.61 ERA) and the Guardians (68-68) counter with lefty Parker Messick (10-8, 2.50 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -170 home favorite and Kansas City a +150 road dog.
Sharps aren’t afraid of the expensive chalk and have sided with the Guardians to secure a victory and avoid the sweep, steaming Cleveland up from -170 to -185.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are receiving 74% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is taking in 85% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Cleveland offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Home favorites looking to avoid the sweep in the third game of a three-game series, like the Guardians here, are 47-30 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season.
Messick has posted a 2.12 ERA in five August starts, allowing only 7 earned runs in 29.2 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Lugo has posted a 6.41 ERA in five August starts, giving up 19 earned runs in 26.2 innings pitched.
7:20 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (-155, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Reds (64-72) won the opener 10-8, coming through as juicy +175 road dogs. Then the Cubs (77-59) bounced back in a big way yesterday, winning 17-5 as -200 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Reds hand the ball to righty Chase Burns (14-3, 2.77 ERA) and the Cubs go with lefty Shota Imanaga (8-9, 3.78 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -135 home favorite and Cincinnati a +120 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Cubs to earn a win at Wrigley and take the series, pushing Chicago up from -135 to -155.
At Circa, Chicago is receiving 70% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
Sunday Night Baseball home favorites are 191-110 (64%) with a 7% ROI since 2010. If they are priced -175 or less and facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Cubs here, they improve to 76-39 (66%) with a 14% ROI since 2010.
Chicago has the better bats, hitting .251 with a .339 OBP and 720 runs scored compared to Cincinnati hitting .228 with a .307 OBP and 563 runs scored.
The Cubs are 6-1 in Imanaga’s last seven starts.
Meanwhile, Burns has posted a 3.53 ERA on the road and 3.46 ERA at night compared to a 2.09 ERA at home and 1.83 ERA during the day.
Chicago is 39-28 at home and 47-30 in night games. Conversely, Cincinnati is 32-36 on the road and 36-45 in night games.
