The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, June 28, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 167-91 SU (+40.22 units, ROI: 15.6%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-141 vs CIN)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 389-440 but for +85.04 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+158 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+119 at CWS), COLORADO (+143 at MIN), CHICAGO CUBS (+135 at MIL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) but a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 227-301 for -73.13 units (ROI: -13.9%).
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+101 vs ATH)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 137-111 for -6.94 units and an ROI of -2.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-198 vs WSH), TORONTO (-136 vs TEX), COLORADO (+143 at MIN)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 43-75 for -34.77 units and an ROI of -29.5%!
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+101 vs ATH)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to an 88-115 start for +0.31 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect, however, it has lost almost 9.52 units the last three weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+163 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (+119 at CWS), MINNESOTA (-173 vs COL), ST LOUIS (-126 vs MIA), ATHLETICS (-122 at LAA)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 39-22 for -9.75 units, ROI -16%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-198 vs WSH), TAMPA BAY (-198 vs AZ)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 164-206 for -23.90 units. This ROI of -6.5% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-104 at CLE), NY METS (+129 vs PHI), DETROIT (-101 vs HOU), COLORADO (+143 at MIN), LA ANGELS (+101 vs ATH), MIAMI (+105 at STL), NY YANKEES (-103 at BOS)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 103-128 start for -20.00 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 44-61 for -17.12 units and an ROI of -16.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (+117 at PIT)
3-games – TEXAS (+113 at TOR), BOSTON (-117 vs NYY)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks 
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 79-83 for +6.58 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+119 at CWS), ST LOUIS (-126 vs MIA)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 447-470 but for +28.97 units and an ROI of 3.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-142 vs TEX), KANSAS CITY (+119 at CWS), ST LOUIS (-126 vs MIA), NY YANKEES (-103 at BOS)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 389-440 but for +85.04 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+158 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+119 at CWS), COLORADO (+143 at MIN), CHICAGO CUBS (+135 at MIL)
*WATCH FOR SEATTLE at CLE (-104 CURRENTLY) and NY YANKEES at BOS (-103 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 461-443 (51.2%) for +17.74 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+118 vs LAD)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,126-2,010 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.64 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+117 at PIT), LA DODGERS (-142 at SD)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2157-2731 (44.1%) for -269.71 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY, ARIZONA, ATLANTA, ATHLETICS

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 647-537 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +24.27 units, for an ROI of 2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-143 vs KC), ST LOUIS (-126 vs MIA)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 347-310 (52.8%) for +21.51 units and an ROI of 3.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+118 vs LAD)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 102-149 SU (-23.91 units, ROI: -9.5%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+117 at PIT), WASHINGTON (+162 at BAL)

Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 167-91 SU (+40.22 units, ROI: 15.6%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-141 vs CIN)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 306-314 run (+13.67 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-136 vs TEX), ST LOUIS (-126 vs MIA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: NY METS +129 (+30 diff), WASHINGTON +163 (+25), CINCINNATI +117 (+15), ARIZONA +162 (+15)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: HOUSTON -120 (+40 diff), TORONTO -136 (+31), SAN DIEGO +118 (+21), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -143 (+17)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CHC-MIL OVER 8 (+0.8)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: PHI-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) CINCINNATI (39-42) at (902) PITTSBURGH (41-42)
Trend: Under the total is 9-2 (+7.00 units) in PIT divisional day games with starter Mitch Keller since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-PIT (o/u at 9)

(907) MIAMI (44-39) at (908) ST LOUIS (42-38)
Trend: Over the total is 22-12-3 (+8.80 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-STL (o/u at 9)

(909) ATLANTA (49-32) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (34-48)
Trend: SF is 26-11 (+16.58 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+135 vs ATL)

(913) TEXAS (41-42) at (914) TORONTO (39-44)
Trend: TEX is 19-27 (-12.11 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+1.5 at TOR)
Trend: Shane Bieber’s teams are 18-4 (+12.10 units) in his last 22 starts in the middle favorite (-140 to -155) line range
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-142 vs TEX)

(915) SEATTLE (42-42) at (916) CLEVELAND (43-40)
Trend: SEA is 0-2 (-2.00 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-104 at CLE)

(917) HOUSTON (41-44) at (918) DETROIT (35-48)
Trend: HOU is 6-11 (-7.71 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown in his career
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-120 at DET)

(919) KANSAS CITY (34-50) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (43-38)
Trend: Under the total is 23-15-1 (+6.50 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-CWS (o/u at 8.5)

(921) ATHLETICS (40-43) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (35-49)
Trend: Under the total is 25-16-1 (+7.40 units) in ATH road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-LAA (o/u at 9.5)
Trend: Aaron Civale’s teams are 25-13 (+5.97 units) when he starts against opponents with a < 43% win pct in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-122 at LAA)

(925) WASHINGTON (42-42) at (926) BALTIMORE (39-45)
Trend: BAL is 7-2 (+4.15 units) in their last nine home games vs NL opponents with starter Kyle Bradish 
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-198 vs WSH)

(927) ARIZONA (41-41) at (928) TAMPA BAY (47-33)
Trend: AZ is 12-23 (-7.96 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+158 at TB)

Series #1: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee, Fri 6/26-Sun 6/28
Trend: Over the total is 17-8-1 (68%, +8.25 units) in the last 26 games of CHC-MIL head-to-head series at Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 31.7%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 8)

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Fri 6/26-Sun 6/28
Trend: CINCINNATI is 9-20 (31%, -11.81 units) in the last 29 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -40.7%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+117 at PIT)

Series #20: Washington at Baltimore, Fri 6/26-Sun 6/28
Trend: Under the total is 20-4-1 (83.3%, +15.65 units) in the last 25 games between Washington and Baltimore
– The ROI on this trend is 65.2%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-BAL (o/u at 9)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, ST LOUIS, BOSTON

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, June 29)

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