The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, May 3, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 367-402 but for +99.03 units and an ROI of 12.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+153 at BOS), SAN FRANCISCO (+102 at TB), ARIZONA (+129 at CHC), KANSAS CITY (+104 at SEA)

Trend: Aaron Civale’s teams are 0-12 (-12.92 units) in home day games as a -122 favorite or worse (including underdog) in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+102 vs CLE)

Trend: CINCINNATI is 7-19 (26.9%, -13.30 units) in the last 26 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -51.2%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+100 at PIT)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a 65-46 start for +1.22 units and an ROI of +1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-149 at STL), NY METS (-136 at LAA)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 66-42 start for +2.32 units and an ROI of +2.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-110 at MIN), BOSTON (-186 vs HOU), ATLANTA (-163 at COL)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 31-41 for +5.88 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+153 at BOS), WASHINGTON (+123 vs MIL), LA ANGELS (+113 vs NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 at SD)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 22-14 but for -13.64 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NY YANKEES (-240 vs BAL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slow start, 62-74 for -5.68 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-110 at MIN), CINCINNATI (+100 at PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (+102 at TB), MIAMI (+119 vs PHI), TEXAS (+104 at DET)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 30-42 start for -8.64 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 17-21 for -1.09 units and an ROI 2.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – PITTSBURGH (-120 vs CIN), TAMPA BAY (-122 vs SF), KANSAS CITY (+104 at SEA)
3+ games – ST LOUIS (+123 vs LAD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 at SD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks 
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and the overall season record is now 33-38 for -0.35 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+194 at NYY), ARIZONA (+129 at CHC), COLORADO (+135 vs ATL)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 422-443 but for +31.03 units and an ROI of 3.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, ARIZONA, COLORADO, SAN DIEGO

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 367-402 but for +99.03 units and an ROI of 12.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+153 at BOS), SAN FRANCISCO (+102 at TB), ARIZONA (+129 at CHC), KANSAS CITY (+104 at SEA)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 648-758 record but for +17.57 units and an ROI of 1.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, NY METS, TEXAS

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2031-1926 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -269.19 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, TORONTO, PITTSBURGH, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2035-2605 (43.9%) for -270.76 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, PHILADELPHIA, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, TEXAS

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4122-3581 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -518.26 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, PITTSBURGH, ATHLETICS, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 612-504 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +31.60 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-163 vs HOU), SAN DIEGO (-186 vs CWS)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams that lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 185-218 SU record for +40.07 units and an ROI of 9.9% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+100 at PIT)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 71-43 SU for +12.53 units (ROI: 11%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-136 at LAA)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 216-249 SU but for +44.95 units (ROI: 9.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+129 at CHC), COLORADO (+135 vs ATL)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 490-559 SU but for +70.01 units (ROI: 6.7%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 166-179 SU for +37.78 units in the last 345 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+129 at CHC), CINCINNATI (+100 at PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (+102 at TB), TEXAS (+104 at DET)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 285-299 run (+8.16 units, ROI: 1.4%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-149 at STL), SAN FRANCISCO (+102 at TB)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 79-65 (+18.34 units, ROI: 12.7%) in their last 144 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 at SD)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5-games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 182-149 (+11.67 units, ROI: 3.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 at SD)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 247-162 in their last 409 tries (+39.46 units, ROI: 9.6%).
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+123 vs LAD)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 35-70 (-7.69 units, ROI: -7.3%) in their last 105 tries.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 at SD)

Winning Streak Betting System #8:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks but playing as large underdogs (+137 or more) have had their totals go Over at a 59-38-5 (60.8%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-SD (o/u at 8.5)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 152-148 (-56.16 units, ROI: -18.7%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+123 vs LAD), CHICAGO CUBS (-156 vs AZ)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +119 (+17 diff), HOUSTON +153 (+15)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE -126 (+33 diff), ATLANTA -163 (+29), TAMPA BAY -122 (+25), LA DODGERS -149 (+18)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-PIT OVER 7.5 (+0.7), TEX-DET OVER 8 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BAL-NYY UNDER 9 (-0.7), AZ-CHC UNDER 11.5 (-0.5), KC-SEA UNDER 8 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) MILWAUKEE (18-14) at (902) WASHINGTON (15-19)
Trend: MIL is 11-3 (+10.62 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at WSH)

(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (20-13) at (908) ST LOUIS (20-13)
Trend: STL is 18-8 (+6.62 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 vs LAD)

(909) ARIZONA (16-16) at (910) CHICAGO-NL (21-12)
Trend: CHC is 6-14 (-9.87 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 vs AZ)

(915) HOUSTON (13-21) at (916) BOSTON (13-20)
Trend: HOU is 5-13 (-9.08 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+153 at BOS)
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 8-12 (-13.97 units) as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range when he starts in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-186 vs HOU)

(917) BALTIMORE (15-18) at (918) NEW YORK-AL (22-11)
Trend: BAL is 0-7 (-8.10 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+194 at NYY)

(919) CLEVELAND (18-16) at (920) ATHLETICS (17-16)
Trend: Aaron Civale’s teams are 0-12 (-12.92 units) in home day games as a -122 favorite or worse (including underdog) in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+102 vs CLE)

(921) KANSAS CITY (14-19) at (922) SEATTLE (16-18)
Trend: Under the total is 11-5-1 (+5.75 units) when Luis Castillo faces teams with a <= 45% win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-SEA (o/u at 8)

(923) TEXAS (16-17) at (924) DETROIT (17-17)
Trend: TEX is 9-18 (-9.10 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+104 at DET)

(927) NEW YORK-NL (11-22) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (13-21)
Trend: NYM is 8-16 (-18.27 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-136 at LAA)

Series #3: Arizona at Chicago Cubs, Fri 5/1-Sun 5/3
Trend: UNDERDOGS are 17-11 (60.7%, +8.12 units) in the last 28 of AZ-CHC series.
The ROI on this trend is 29%.
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+129 at CHC)

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Fri 5/1-Sun 5/3
Trend: CINCINNATI is 7-19 (26.9%, -13.30 units) in the last 26 games at Pittsburgh
The ROI on this trend is -51.2%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+100 at PIT)

Series #21: Colorado at Atlanta, Fri 5/1-Sun 5/3
Trend: ATLANTA has won 22 of the last 28 games against Colorado (78.6%, +5.87 units)
The ROI on this trend is 21%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-163 at COL)

Series #31: Cleveland at Athletics, Fri 5/1-Sun 5/3
Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 23-5 (82.1%, +16.82 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022.The ROI on this trend is 60%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-122 at ATH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): LA ANGELS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, LA ANGELS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%. 
– Majority handle bettors backing home favorites in the months of May, June and July games of 2024-25 were 656-480 (57.7%) but for -137.9 units and an ROI of -12.1%, a full 3.6% worse than the normal return.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, CHICAGO CUBS, SEATTLE, DETROIT

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, it is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
    System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-LAA

    Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

    The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

    NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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