Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 9 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:35 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-115, 7.5) at Baltimore Orioles
The Yankees (71-55) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 3-1 as a -115 road favorite and then winning again yesterday 5-3 as a -105 road pick’em.
In tonight’s series finale, the Yankees hand the ball to righty Gerrit Cole (6-6, 3.22 ERA) and the Orioles (61-66) turn to fellow righty Kyle Bradish (7-11, 3.65 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -125 road favorite and Baltimore a +105 home dog.
The public is all over the Yankees to complete the sweep laying short chalk.
However, despite receiving 75% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Yankees fall from -125 to -115, with some shops inching down to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Orioles, as the line has moved in their direction (+110 to +100) despite being the unpopular play.
Essentially, smart Baltimore money is moving this game down closer to a pick’em.
At DraftKings, the Orioles are receiving 25% of moneyline bets and 28% of moneyline dollars, making Baltimore one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day. At Circa, Baltimore is taking in 25% of moneyline bets but a whopping 92% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Baltimore offers betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and leading to more upset opportunities.
Bradish is 4-3 with a 2.97 ERA in night games compared to 3-8 with a 4.34 ERA during the day. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in five of his last six starts.
8:05 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers (-165, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Rangers (62-65) won the opener 5-0, taking care of business as -140 home favorites. Then the Nationals (61-67) bounced back with a 6-0 win yesterday, coming through as +110 road dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Nationals tap lefty Andrew Alvarez (2-4, 3.72 ERA) and the Rangers go with righty Jacob deGrom (8-8, 3.95 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -150 home favorite and Washington a +130 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Rangers to earn a home victory and take the series, pushing Texas up from -150 to -165, with some shops inching up to -170.
At DraftKings, the Rangers are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Texas is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and a hefty 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Texas offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
deGrom has gone 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA at home compared to 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA on the road. On the other hand, Alvarez has gone 0-3 with a 4.33 ERA in night games compared to 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA during the day.
