Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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9:38 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (-140, 7) at Los Angeles Angels
The Guardians (66-66) took last night’s series opener 4-2, hanging on as -165 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians start righty Gavin Williams (12-7, 3.72 ERA) and the Angels (52-80) tap fellow righty Walbert Urena (8-9, 2.80 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -135 road favorite and Los Angeles a +115 home dog.
Sharps have sided with the Guardians to earn another road victory, pushing Cleveland up from -135 to -140, with some shops touching as high as -145.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is taking in 83% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Cleveland offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Guardians have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.80 (9th in MLB) compared to 4.20 (20th) for the Angels.
Cleveland is 35-32 (52%) on the road, 8th best in MLB. Los Angeles is 29-37 (44%), 4th worst in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-120, 7)
The Pirates (64-69) won last night’s series opener 3-2 in extra innings, coming through as +100 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Pirates send out righty Paul Skenes (9-11, 3.95 ERA) and the Padres go with fellow righty Michael King (8-9, 3.38 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -115 home favorite and Pittsburgh a -105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided the Padres laying short chalk at home, pushing San Diego up from -115 to -120, with some books touching as high as -125.
At DraftKings, San Diego is receiving 56% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Padres are taking in 82% of moneyline bet and over 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
The Padres offer correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
King has posted a 3.21 ERA at home and a 2.81 ERA in night games compared to a 3.56 ERA on the road and a 4.34 ERA in day games.
Meanwhile, Skenes has posted a 6.46 ERA in his last five starts, giving up 17 earned runs in 23.2 innings pitched. He has posted a 4.40 ERA on the road compared to 3.59 at home.
The Padres are 40-27 (60%) at home, 6th best in MLB. Conversely, the Pirates are 30-37 (45%) on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners (-110, 7.5)
The Mariners (63-69) dominated last night’s Interleague series opener 9-2, easily cashing as +105 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies (73-59) hand the ball to righty Aaron Nola (5-9, 5.12 ERA) and the Mariners send out fellow righty George Kirby (8-10, 4.18 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -120 home favorite and Philadelphia a +100 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Phillies to bounce back with a win, dropping the line away from Seattle (-120 to -110) and toward Philadelphia (+100 to -110). Essentially, smart Phillies money has moved this game down to a virtual pick’em.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Philadelphia is taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road team.
The Phillies have the better bats, hitting .243 with 601 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .230 with 522 runs scored. The Phillies are also hitting .245 against righties (13th) while the Mariners are hitting .236 (25th).
Philadelphia has gone 3-1 in Nola’s last four starts. He has posted a 2.74 ERA in his last four starts, allowing only 7 earned runs in 23 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Seattle is 1-3 in Kirby’s last four starts. He has posted a 5.40 ERA in his last four starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 20 innings pitched.
The Phillies are 52-38 in night games. Conversely, the Mariners are 37-47 in night games.
