MLB Best Bets Today July 21
Tuesday looks a lot like Monday on the diamond, as we’ll have 15 games that start at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. Bummer that there are no day games on the docket for those looking for a distraction from work, but that’s how most Tuesdays go and you’ll get your wish with several getaway day games on Wednesday. For now, our focus is on the July 21 slate and finding winners. Be careful with pitcher props on the East Coast, as weather threats are present in Philly, NYC, and Boston, plus we’ve got rain chances in Cleveland.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 21:
Pirates vs. Yankees Prediction
Pick: Pirates +114
We’ll see if this game does get played or not, but I do like the Pirates if it does. Bubba Chandler and Will Warren are the slated starters for this one. First thing I’ll note is that the Yankees have used Fernando Cruz and Brent Headrick back-to-back days and three out of four, so I doubt they’re available out of the pen. Tim Hill and Angel Chivilli have been used back-to-back days. Camilo Doval and closer David Bednar both threw over 30 pitches on Sunday. The New York pen is up against it a bit tonight, while the Pirates pen has everybody except for Wilber Dotel available.
Next, let’s dig into the pitching matchup. Warren has a 5.04 ERA with a 5.02 xERA and a 4.93 FIP over his last 12 starts. Like a lot of pitchers in cooler climates, he got off to a really nice start in April when the ball wasn’t carrying, but it’s been a different story since. Over those 60.2 innings, he’s allowed 41 runs, with 34 of them earned. He has just a 50/25 K/BB ratio and has allowed 10 homers with a 13% HR/FB%.
For the season as a whole, lefties are slashing .266/.332/.458 against him with a .343 wOBA. In that split, Warren only has an 18.3% K% against an 8.3% BB% and a 14.1% HR/FB%. While the Pirates have been surging against southpaws lately, they lead the league for the season in wOBA against RHP with a .266/.351/.435 slash. A couple of lefties, Spencer Horwitz and Oneil Cruz are out, but they’ve found ways to overcome those absences.
Chandler is certainly a risk heading to Yankee Stadium with a 4.77 ERA, 4.14 xERA, and a 4.59 FIP. He has walked 55 in 94.1 innings and the high BB% is easily his biggest problem area. But, he does have just an 8.5% HR/FB% and has done a really good job of minimizing hard contact with a 37.3% Hard Hit%.
Without Judge, the Yankees walk a lot less, as they have just a 7.6% BB% against RHP here in the month of July. Over his last 10 appearances, one as a bulk reliever, Chandler has a 4.47 ERA, but a 3.43 xERA and a 3.58 FIP with just a 5.2% HR/FB%. He’s cut the walk rate down a little. We’ll see if a rested Chandler coming out of the All-Star Break has better control.
But, I think the Pirates are worth it tonight given a good matchup for their lineup and the bullpen dynamics I mentioned earlier. This line did get hit this morning while writing, so somebody else agrees.
Giants vs. Royals Prediction
Pick: Royals -105
The Royals won on a walk-off squeeze bunt last night, so it was a thrilling ending to what was a low-scoring affair throughout, as the Giants scored two in the top of the ninth to tie the game before the Royals celebrated with a run of their own in the ninth. The biggest story from that game is that Bobby Witt Jr. got pulled due to back tightness and probably won’t be in the lineup tonight.
Here’s the thing about that, though. Witt is slashing .196/.250/.286 this month anyway, as clearly the back has been barking for a bit now. He may be slated for an IL stint, but that’ll just force everybody else to step up a bit and also should put a healthier guy in the lineup. I do think that the Royals will be available at a better price later on when the modeling crowd updates with the lineups and Witt isn’t in it. You’ll surely get a plus-money price on KC at that point.
But, this is what is available to us now, so we soldier on. With a big boost from Jac Caglianone, the Royals are seventh in wOBA against RHP this month at .339 with a 114 wRC+. That’s not a good sign for Tyler Mahle, who has been bombed on the road this season. In just 33 innings pitched, Mahle has an 8.45 ERA away from pitcher-friendly Oracle Park with a .350/.399/.577 slash against and a .415 wOBA against. Both righties and lefties have found plenty of success against him. Outside of 5.1 random shutout innings in Tampa, in another pitcher’s park by the way, he’s allowed 5, 4, 8, 5, 4, and 6 runs in his road outings.
Luinder Avila won’t be winning any pitching awards, as he has a 5.09 ERA with a 4.77 xERA and a 5.20 FIP in his 35.1 innings as a starter, but let’s dig deeper. He allowed eight runs on five hits and three walks on June 12 over just 0.2 innings of work. We can’t remove the bad ones, but he has a 3.12 ERA across his other seven starts with that complete disaster out of the equation.
The biggest problem for Avila is that he’s walked 22 batters as a starter, but the Giants have the lowest BB% against RHP for the season at just 6.7%. They’ve walked a bit more of late, but it isn’t a big part of their offense.
Neither bullpen has been that good this month, both coming in with ERAs over 5.00. I do hope that Royals “closer” Alex Lange is not used in that role after blowing back-to-back saves, but I do think KC will have a lead to protect.
Cardinals vs. Angels Prediction
Pick: Angels -118
It is another wasted season for the Angels, but they’ve at least found some wins on the pitching development side with guys like Jose Soriano, Reid Detmers, and tonight’s starter, Walbert Urena. The 22-year-old has a 2.88 ERA with a 3.31 xERA and a 3.94 FIP over his 81.1 innings of work. Walks are an issue for him with 46 of those, but the Cardinals are dead last in wOBA against RHP this month and some of that has to do with a 7.1% BB%.
Since moving into the rotation on April 19, Urena has allowed more than three earned runs in a start just twice. One was a seven-run blow-up against the A’s and the other was in his second start back on April 25. Otherwise, the extreme groundballer has been really good. His 54.8% GB% makes it tough to score on him, even with the walks, especially because he has only allowed five home runs this season.
Even with his worst start of the season coming at The Big A, Urena has allowed just a .186/.295/.244 slash pitching at home over 43.1 innings and 183 batters faced. The Angels have also reshuffled their bullpen and top closing option Ryan Zeferjahn is now in that role, which should stabilize the group as a whole.
Matthew Liberatore gets the call for the Redbirds today and it’s been a rough season for him. He has a 5.00 ERA with a 5.27 xERA and a 4.87 FIP over 93.2 innings across 19 starts. The long ball has been a major problem for him with a 14.8% HR/FB%. Given how the ball is carrying as the MLB season rolls along, that’s a number of great concern.
Also, not surprisingly, Liberatore has been worse on the road, posting a .293/.370/.512 slash against with a .380 wOBA. He has a 5.44 ERA in that split and has allowed eight homers. Furthermore, righties on the road have slashed .293/.362/.488 and the Angels can throw as many as nine righties at the southpaw, but I assume it will be eight. Regardless, it’s not a great matchup for him.
The Cardinals have used George Soriano and Ryne Stanek back-to-back nights. Gordon Graceffo would be working a third time in four days. Riley O’Brien got the loss and blown save yesterday. I like where the Angels pen is at in a relative sense.
