Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, May 26, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Over the total is 16-3-2 (+12.70 units) when Miami is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-TOR (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 472-377 for +39.96 units and a ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+113 at DET)
* Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 525-598 SU but for +74.49 units (ROI: 6.6%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 175-194 SU for +33.94 units in the last 369 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at PIT), ST LOUIS (+158 at MIL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 93-77 start for -8.82 units and an ROI of -5.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-115 at CWS), SEATTLE (-108 at ATH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 11-12 for -3.62 units and an ROI of -15.7%.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-131 at NYM), MINNESOTA (-115 at CWS)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 34-43 for -12.46 units and an ROI of -16.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (-114 vs. AZ)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle. For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 59-71 for +9.10 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+113 at DET), KANSAS CITY (+168 vs. NYY), HOUSTON (+109 at TEX), COLORADO (+194 at LAD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 26-11 for +0.18 units and an ROI of +0.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-193 vs. STL), NY YANKEES (-205 at KC)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 27-16 but for -12.65 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-239 vs. COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 15-7 start for -1.03 units. The ROI on that is -4.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-193 vs. STL), LA DODGERS (-239 vs. COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 103-120 for -5.41 units. However, it did get back +5.24 units in the last two weeks alone.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at PIT), ATLANTA (-110 at BOS), MIAMI (+119 at TOR), NY METS (+108 vs. CIN), SEATTLE (-108 at ATH)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 63-76 start for -5.66 units (ROI -4.1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 28-35 for -4.76 units and an ROI -7.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – PITTSBURGH (-136 vs. CHC), CINCINNATI (-131 at NYM)
3+ games – WASHINGTON (+113 at CLE), LA ANGELS (+113 at DET), HOUSTON (+109 at TEX), ARIZONA (-105 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 55-60 for +1.45 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-110 vs. ATL), COLORADO (+194 at LAD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 472-377 for +39.96 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+113 at DET)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 143-185 for -39.07 units and an ROI of -11.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): NOT YET, BUT WATCH FOR BOSTON vs. ATL (-110 CURRENTLY)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 402-343 but for -83.35 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-136 vs. LAA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,063-1,956 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.95 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, WASHINGTON, HOUSTON, SEATTLE
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,090-2,662 (44%) for -269.15 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, LA ANGELS, CHICAGO CUBS, MINNESOTA, ST LOUIS
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 632-524 (54.7%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +24.57 units, for an ROI of 2.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-132 vs. HOU), SAN DIEGO (-114 vs. PHI)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams that won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 95-142 SU (-25.62 units, ROI: -10.8%) as underdogs in the follow-up game since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-107 vs. TB)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 525-598 SU but for +74.49 units (ROI: 6.6%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 175-194 SU for +33.94 units in the last 369 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at PIT), ST LOUIS (+158 at MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 40-104 skid (-40.88 units, ROI -28.4%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at PIT)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on skids have gone 19-24 (+7.91 units, ROI: 18.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 99-184 (-65.84 units, ROI: -23.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at PIT)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 41-78 in their last 119 tries (-21.65 units, ROI: -18.2%).
Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at PIT)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 296-308 run (+10.55 units, ROI: 1.7%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY METS (+108 vs. CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at PIT)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATLANTA -110 (+23 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -239 (+36 diff), SAN DIEGO -114 (+31), DETROIT -136 (+24), CLEVELAND -136 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.7), MIN-CWS OVER 7.5 (+0.7), MIA-TOR OVER 7.5 (+0.5), PHI-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SEA-ATH UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(955) ST LOUIS (29-23) at (956) MILWAUKEE (31-20)
Trend: STL is 23-13 (+4.63 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at MIL)
(957) PHILADELPHIA (27-27) at (958) SAN DIEGO (31-22)
Trend: PHI is 2-4 (-2.95 units) in the last six games vs. San Diego with starter Aaron Nola
Trend: PHI is 15-29 (-12.30 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-105 at SD)
Trend: SD is 16-3 (+12.69 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-114 vs. PHI)
(961) COLORADO (20-35) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (34-20)
Trend: COL is 12-34 (-13.52 units) on the road last few seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+194 at LAD)
(967) NEW YORK-AL (32-22) at (968) KANSAS CITY (22-32)
Trend: Under the total is 14-4-1 (+9.60 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-KC (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Bailey Falter’s teams are 15-9 (+5.88 units) when he starts in home night games in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+168 vs. NYY)
(969) MINNESOTA (26-28) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (27-26)
Trend: CWS is 15-10 (+6.13 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-105 vs. MIN)
(971) HOUSTON (24-31) at (972) TEXAS (24-29)
Trend: Under the total is 16-5-1 (+10.50 units) in TEX home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-TEX (o/u at 8)
(973) SEATTLE (26-29) at (974) ATHLETICS (27-27)
Trend: Luis Severino’s teams are 33-17 (+13.48 units) when he starts against teams with a losing record in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-112 vs. SEA)
(975) WASHINGTON (28-27) at (976) CLEVELAND (32-24)
Trend: WSH is 22-7 (+12.73 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at CLE)
(977) ATLANTA (36-18) at (978) BOSTON (22-30)
Trend: ATL is 16-5 (+10.13 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-110 at BOS)
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 20-10 (+10.24 units) when he starts in line range -115 to +115 in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-110 vs. ATL)
(979) MIAMI (26-29) at (980) TORONTO (25-29)
Trend: Over the total is 16-3-2 (+12.70 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-TOR (o/u at 7.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website before opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, MIAMI, HOUSTON, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, MIAMI
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, May 29)
