MLB Best Bets Today August 20
A lot of day games are on the docket today, as we have an abbreviated schedule due to travel days for some of the league’s teams. There are only three late games, with Yankees vs. Orioles, Nationals vs. Rangers, and Angels vs. Astros, and two of those feature pretty big favorites. That doesn’t leave me a whole lot to pick from in the interest of lead time. Fortunately, Greg Peterson’s article always covers the early games and all of the games, but my focus is always on the nighttime slate and that was today’s focus as well.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 20:
Nationals vs. Rangers Prediction
Pick: Jacob deGrom (TEX) Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+182)
As noted in the intro, there isn’t a lot to pick from today, but this was a player prop that caught my eye. deGrom left his last start against the Angels due to triceps tightness. He was cleared to get the start tonight, but, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News noted in his daily Rangers Report, the future Hall of Famer has been dealing with hip and glute soreness as well.
The Nationals were good to us yesterday with the 6-0 win against Kumar Rocker. Today’s assignment is definitely harder and their numbers against righties have dropped off since James Wood hit the IL earlier this month. But, I’m hoping that some of their hitters can exercise some patience.
deGrom has walked 2+ batters in five of his last nine starts dating back to June 19. He walked one in two innings before leaving his last start, so it could be six of nine, had he faced more than 12 batters. His 42.7% Zone% in that span is down from his 46.2% Zone% for the season.
A pitcher who is clearly not operating at 100% seems worthy of taking a shot on this prop given how big of a plus-money price we’re getting.
