The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, April 29, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: PHI is 23-2 (+19.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-143 vs SF)

* Road teams on 5+ game losing streaks who just lost as favorites but are favored again have gone 33-13 SU (+14.44 units, ROI: 31.4%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-124 at CWS)

* Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 184-217 SU record for +39.93 units and an ROI of 10% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+104 at MIL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 61-40 start for +6.78 units and an ROI of +6.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-102 vs NYY), PITTSBURGH (-126 vs STL), NY METS (-163 vs WSH)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 15-24 for -10.86 units and an ROI of -27.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-105 vs CHC), CINCINNATI (-156 vs COL), MILWAUKEE (-126 vs AZ)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 59-36 start for +4.95 units and an ROI of +5.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-120 vs TB), SEATTLE (-136 at MIN), LA DODGERS (-232 vs MIA), SAN FRANCISCO (+119 at PHI)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 28-36 for +7.43 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+103 vs LAA), ST LOUIS (+104 at PIT)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 21-13 but for -11.97 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-232 vs MIA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slow start, 56-67 for -5.00 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-102 vs NYY), SAN DIEGO (-105 vs CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+119 at PHI), ATLANTA (+123 vs DET)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 28-39 start for -7.63 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 11-18 for -6.30 units and an ROI of -21.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – NY YANKEES (-118 at TEX), ST LOUIS (+104 at PIT)
3+ games – TAMPA BAY (+100 at CLE), KANSAS CITY (+100 at ATH)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 17-22 for -12.59 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (-120 vs TB), TEXAS (-102 vs NYY), PITTSBURGH (-126 vs STL)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 420-441 but for +32.59 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (-124 at CWS), CLEVELAND (-115 vs TB), TEXAS (+100 vs NYY)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 365-401 but for +97.45 units and an ROI of 12.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+104 at TOR)
*WATCH FOR MIAMI at LAD (+189 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 646-754 record but for +19.65 units and an ROI of 1.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (-124 at CWS), BOSTON (+104 at TOR)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2026-1922 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -270.49 units. This represents an ROI of -6.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+104 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (-126 vs AZ)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2028-2591 (43.9%) for -264.03 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, COLORADO, SAN FRANCISCO, BOSTON, WASHINGTON, DETROIT, LA ANGELS, ARIZONA, MIAMI

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4109-3568 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -514.94 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, NY METS, ATLANTA, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MILWAUKEE

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 610-503 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +32.27 units, for an ROI of 2.9%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-240 vs MIA)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 184-217 SU record for +39.93 units and an ROI of 10% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+104 at MIL)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 483-549 SU but for +71.56 units (ROI: 6.9%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 165-176 SU for +39.39 units in the last 341 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+104 at TOR), ARIZONA (+104 at MIL), WASHINGTON (+135 at NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (+119 at PHI), COLORADO (+129 at CIN), HOUSTON (+104 at BAL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Road teams on 5+ game losing streaks who just lost as favorites but are favored again have gone 33-13 SU (+14.44 units, ROI: 31.4%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-124 at CWS)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 284-298 run (+8.29 units, ROI: 1.4%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (-115 vs TB)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 246-161 in their last 407 tries (+39.38 units, ROI: 9.7%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-105 at CLE)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -126 (+31 diff), ATHLETICS -120 (+17)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-CLE OVER 6.5 (+0.9), WSH-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.9), KC-ATH UNDER 10 (-0.7)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) MIAMI (14-16) at (902) LOS ANGELES-NL (20-10)
Trend: Over the total is 10-2-2 (+7.80 units) in MIA road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-LAD (o/u at 8)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow’s teams are 14-3 (+7.20 units) vs NL East teams in the last 6+ seasons (when he starts)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow’s teams are 47-14 (+14.34 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last 6+ seasons (when he starts)
Trends Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-232 vs MIA)

(903) CHICAGO-NL (18-12) at (904) SAN DIEGO (19-10)
Trend: CHC is 5-12 (-9.22 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 at SD)

(905) SAN FRANCISCO (13-16) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (10-19)
Trend: PHI is 23-2 (+19.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-143 vs SF)

(911) WASHINGTON (13-17) at (912) NEW YORK-NL (10-19)
Trend: NYM is 20-7 (+8.48 units) as a -130 favorite or higher with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-163 vs WSH)

(913) ARIZONA (15-13) at (914) MILWAUKEE (15-13)
Trend: AZ is 11-4 (+5.20 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+1.5 at MIL)

(915) LOS ANGELES-AL (12-19) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (13-17)
Trend: Over the total is 9-2 (+6.80 units) in LAA day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-CWS (o/u at 9)

(919) SEATTLE (15-16) at (920) MINNESOTA (13-17)
Trend: SEA is 22-10 (+6.24 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-136 at MIN)

(921) NEW YORK-AL (20-10) at (922) TEXAS (14-16)
Trend: Under the total is 11-2-1 (+8.80 units) in TEX home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-TEX (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi’s teams are 28-13 (+15.04 units) in his last 41 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-102 vs NYY)

(925) HOUSTON (11-19) at (926) BALTIMORE (14-15)
Trend: Over the total is 10-3 (+6.70 units) when HOU is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-BAL (o/u at 9)

(927) KANSAS CITY (12-17) at (928) ATHLETICS (15-14)
Trend: KC is 1-8 (-6.74 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend: Luis Severino’s teams are 31-14 (+14.85 units) against opponents with a losing record in the last 3+ seasons (when he starts)
Trends Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-120 vs KC)

(929) DETROIT (15-15) at (930) ATLANTA (21-9)
Trend: DET is 12-4 (+11.67 units) with starter Tarik Skubal against teams with a >60% win pct in his career
Trend: Tarik Skubal is 22-10 (+4.51 units) in his last 32 night game starts
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-149 at ATL)

Series #7: San Francisco at Philadelphia, Tue 4/28-Thu 4/30
Trend: Home teams are on a 22-6 (78.6%, +16.08 units) run in the Giants-Phillies National League series
– The ROI on this trend is 57.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-143 vs SF)

Series #30: Boston at Toronto, Mon 4/27-Wed 4/29
Trend: Underdogs are on a 28-14 (66.7%, +21.62 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry
– The ROI on this trend is 51.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+104 at TOR)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, MIAMI, HOUSTON, COLORADO, ST LOUIS, ATLANTA, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NY METS

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, May 1)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR