WNBA Picks
We cashed yet another winner last night in our only play of the night, with Golden State easily covering the -9.5 in a twenty-point win over Chicago at home. We’re onto Thursday with a three-game slate featuring the Connecticut Sun hosting the Atlanta Dream, the New York Liberty hosting the LA Sparks, and the Washington Mystics playing the Aces in Vegas for a second straight game. Here are the TSI projections for Thursday, August 13th.
Connecticut Sun (+10.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 174.5
On the surface, it looks like Atlanta has the upper hand here, as the last three games’ data indicates the Dream are playing three points above their season average while the Sun are playing a hair below theirs; however, looking at the recent home/road splits, we see that Atlanta’s last three road games have been about average for them, while the Sun have actually been about 2.5 points above their season average in their last three home games. TSI projects Atlanta -7.5 with a total of 166, and it’s also worth noting that the last three Sun home games have only averaged 156 total points. I like the Sun and the Under here, as Atlanta is just not the same team on the road, where they average nine fewer points per game.
Bet: Sun +10.5 (Play to +9.5)
Bet: Under 174.5 (Play to 172.5)
New York Liberty (-9.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 186.5
The Liberty are getting pretty propped up by a dominant win against a majorly shorthanded Aces team a couple games ago, but taking away that outlier, they’ve been about four points below their season average over the last three games, and LA has been about 3.5 points better since the Kelsey Plum trade. TSI projects Liberty -12 with a total of 180.5 in this game, and while I considered playing an Under here, I think I’m going to pass because the recent home/road splits for these teams indicate it could be higher scoring than TSI is calling for, so I’m going to be more selective and pass on this game.
Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 169.5
We played the Under in this matchup just a couple days ago, and it cashed with ease. This is basically the same handicap all over again, where it mostly comes down to the Mystics just not being the same team on the road, which is to be expected from a talented but inexperienced roster. The Mystics have been three points worse on the road, and their offense has definitely struggled, scoring five points fewer per game on the road than at home. TSI projects Aces -9.5 with a total of 166, and I think the Under is the play again until Washington shows they can consistently score points on the road, as their last three road games have only averaged 160 total points.
Bet: Under 169.5 (Play to 167.5)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
SPONSORED
VSiN: This is historic! 19-2 start to his WNBA Career. AUGUST YOUNG from Doc’s Sports has now delivered 14 straight premium WNBA winners! His complete record stands at 19-2—a 91% win rate—for +6,730 in documented profit.
Review every play and result here.
New members can also get started with a free $60 account here.
