Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, August 12, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: COL is 1-11 (-9.10 units) in road divisional games with starter Ryan Feltner in his career
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+153 at AZ)
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 68-46-5 (59.6%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 38-19 Over streak in the last 57).
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-WSH (o/u at 9.5)
Trend: Under the total is 44-17-2 (+25.70 units) when starter Zack Wheeler is on the road and faces teams within 41.5-62% win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-STL (o/u at 8)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 192-146 for +7.66 units and an ROI of +2.3% after a 38-24, +10.63 unit run out of the break.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-101 at MIA)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as valuable as, or more valuable than, systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 50-45 for -9.49 units for an ROI of -10%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-158 at STL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 72-113 for -45.91 units and an ROI of -24.8%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-141 vs CIN)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a 125-173 start for -10.63 units. After losing about 20.5 units over the last eight weeks, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+195 vs TB), COLORADO (+153 at AZ), SAN FRANCISCO (+137 vs HOU), WASHINGTON (+148 vs CHC)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 37-21 but for -14.8 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-210 at ATH), LA DODGERS (-207 vs KC)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 30-20 start for -16.08 units and an ROI of -32.2%!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-207 vs KC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 254-298 for -10.31 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 63-51, +23.88 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-101 at MIA), LA ANGELS (+120 vs TEX)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 200-125 for +51.41 units, an ROI of +15.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-112 at SD), DETROIT (-119 vs CLE), NY YANKEES (-124 vs SEA), BOSTON (-119 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 147-181 start for -26.87 units (ROI -8.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 61-86 for -24.37 units and a solid ROI of -16.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TORONTO (+111 vs BOS)
3+ games – SAN DIEGO (+104 vs MIL), MIAMI (-106 vs PIT)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 123-145 for -5.42 units. However, it has lost -18.72 units over the last six weeks.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+111 at DET), SEATTLE (+116 at NYY), KANSAS CITY (+192 at LAD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 467-493 but for +28.65 units and an ROI of 3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+192 at LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 791-1,035 but for +22.64 units and an ROI of 1.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+163 at AZ), NY METS (+158 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 410-465 but for +87.15 units and an ROI of 10% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+158 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 172-70 for +15.30 units and an ROI of 6.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ARIZONA vs COL (-175 CURRENTLY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,190-2,069 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.10 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+105 vs MIL), TAMPA BAY (-210 at ATH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,247-2,819 (44.4%) for -256.61 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, SEATTLE, NY METS, PHILADELPHIA, TEXAS, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 68-46-5 (59.6%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 38-19 Over streak in the last 57).
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-WSH (o/u at 9.5)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 327-338 run (+11.79 units, ROI: 1.8%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+116 at NYY), BOSTON (-119 at TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 265-175 in their last 440 tries (+39.62 units, ROI: 9%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-210 at ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #9:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks who are coming off scoring 5+ runs have trended Over the total when playing in less-competitive (-215 or more favorite/+150 or more underdog) DAY games, going 39-21 (65%) to the Over since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR TB-ATH (-210 CURRENTLY, O/U 9.5)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 510-492 for +26.37 units, good for +2.6% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LA ANGELS +120 (+37 diff), SAN DIEGO +104 (+22), TORONTO +111 (+19), WASHINGTON +148 (+15), SEATTLE +116 (+14)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ARIZONA -165 (+32 diff), DETROIT -119 (+21), MIAMI -106 (+14)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 113-88 for +14.35 units and an ROI of 7.1%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: TEX-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.8)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (64-57) at (952) ST LOUIS (60-60)
Trend: PHI is 21-37 (-19.69 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at STL)
Trend: PHI is 32-12 (+13.71 units) in the last 44 day game starts by Zack Wheeler
Trend: Zach Wheeler’s teams are 5-2 (+1.88 units) in his last seven starts vs St Louis
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-158 at STL)
Trend: Under the total is 44-17-2 (+25.70 units) when starter Zack Wheeler is on the road and faces teams within 41.5-62% win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-STL (o/u at 8)
(953) COLORADO (47-73) at (954) ARIZONA (64-57)
Trend: COL is 1-11 (-9.10 units) in road divisional games with starter Ryan Feltner in his career
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+153 at AZ)
Trend: Under the total is 27-14-4 (+11.60 units) in AZ day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-AZ (o/u at 9)
(955) MILWAUKEE (74-46) at (956) SAN DIEGO (64-57)
Trend: Robbie Ray’s teams are 29-12 (+18.87 units) when he starts against NL opponents since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+104 vs MIL)
(959) CHICAGO-NL (70-50) at (960) WASHINGTON (59-62)
Trend: WSH is 27-13 (+12.36 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 vs CHC)
(967) CLEVELAND (58-62) at (968) DETROIT (59-60)
Trend: Foster Griffin’s teams are 11-4 (+9.55 units) when he starts as a plus-money underdog since the beginning of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+111 at DET)
(969) SEATTLE (56-64) at (970) NEW YORK-AL (67-52)
Trend: SEA is 5-13 (-9.27 units) with starter Bryce Miller vs AL East opponents the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+116 at NYY)
(973) TEXAS (60-60) at (974) LOS ANGELES-AL (46-74)
Trend: Under the total is 38-22 (+13.80 units) in LAA home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-LAA (o/u at 9)
(975) HOUSTON (61-60) at (976) SAN FRANCISCO (50-70)
Trend: Under the total is 35-23-7 (+9.80 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SF (o/u at 8.5)
(977) CINCINNATI (57-61) at (978) CHICAGO-AL (61-57)
Trend: CIN is 27-41 (-7.82 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+131 at CWS)
(979) KANSAS CITY (49-72) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (72-48)
Trend: LAD is 48-68 (-24.47 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs KC)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #30: Boston at Toronto, Mon 8/10-Thu 8/13
Trend: Underdogs are on a 32-19 (62.7%, +21.23 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry
– The ROI on this trend is 41.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+111 vs BOS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-165 vs COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): BALTIMORE (-101 at MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-210 at ATH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-210 at ATH), HOUSTON (-141 at SF), KANSAS CITY (+192 at LAD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BAL-MIN (o/u at 9), TB-ATH (o/u at 9.5), COL-AZ (o/u at 9), TEX-LAA (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Friday, August 14)
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