Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, August 5, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Home teams in the Royals-Twins AL Central rivalry are on a 44-18 (71%, +23.89 units) run in head-to-head play
– The ROI on this trend is 38.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-116 vs MIN)
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 398-198 (66.8%) for +61.37 units and an ROI of 10.3%!
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-128 vs CWS)
Trend: Under the total is 31-16-3 (+13.20 units) when starter Nick Martinez is in higher total games (o/u >= 8.5) since start of 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-COL (o/u at 11.5)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 408-460 but for +89.40 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+138 at TEX), ST LOUIS (+144 at NYY)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 185-139 for +7.79 units and an ROI of +2.4% after a 31-17, +10.76 unit run out of the break.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-114 vs LAD), LA ANGELS (+111 at BAL), NY METS (+103 at CLE), SEATTLE (-152 vs DET), SAN DIEGO (-119 at AZ)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 48-43 for -8.90 units for an ROI of -9.8%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (-152 at MIL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 122-163 start for -5.11 units. After losing about 15 units over the seven weeks, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+174 at PHI), ATHLETICS (+137 at CIN)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 61-35 for -16.85 units, ROI -17.6%.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-205 vs TOR)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 235-282 for -19.89 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 44-35, +14.30 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+138 at TEX), LA ANGELS (+111 at BAL), NY METS (+103 at CLE), MINNESOTA (+106 at KC)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 195-122 for +49.99 units, an ROI of +15.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-114 vs LAD), ATLANTA (-117 vs MIA), SAN DIEGO (-119 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 59-82 for -22.31 units and a solid ROI of -15.8%.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+143 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 116-136 for -4.92 units. However, it has lost -18.22 units over the last month.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (+103 at CHC), WASHINGTON (+174 at PHI), ATHLETICS (+137 at CIN)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 465-490 but for +29.40 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+104 at CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 408-460 but for +89.40 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+138 at TEX), ST LOUIS (+144 at NYY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 472-453 (51%) for +16.04 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.7%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-152 vs DET)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,182-2,058 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -261.94 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-128 vs CWS), TAMPA BAY (-152 at COL), SAN DIEGO (-119 at AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2231-2796 (44.4%) for -255.94 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, WASHINGTON, ST LOUIS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MIAMI, MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH, LA DODGERS, TORONTO
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 667-560 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +15.88 units, for an ROI of 1.3%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-152 vs DET)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 398-198 (66.8%) for +61.37 units and an ROI of 10.3%!
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-128 vs CWS)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 354-316 (52.8%) for +20.94 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+112 vs SD)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 236-278 SU but for +42.37 units (ROI: 8.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+143 vs TB)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on an 43-109 skid (-41.86 units, ROI -27.5%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+174 at PHI)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 105-193 (-68.87 units, ROI: -23.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+174 at PHI)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 46-80 in their last 126 tries (-16.93 units, ROI: -13.4%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+174 at PHI)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams on 6+ game losing streaks playing in less-competitive divisional games (-150 or more favorite/+150 or more underdog) have had their totals go Over at a 67-51-8 (56.8%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-PHI (o/u at 9.5)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 323-337 run (+7.91 units, ROI: 1.2%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON (+174 at PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 204-162 (+19.18 units, ROI: 5.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-128 vs CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 259-174 in their last 433 tries (+36.39 units, ROI: 8.4%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-128 vs CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 37-75 (-10.16 units, ROI: -9.1%) in their last 112 tries.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+143 at SEA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 477-466 for +13.30 units, good for +1.4% ROI. TODAY’s MATCHES:
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TORONTO +195 (+30 diff), WASHINGTON +174 (+17), ST LOUIS +144 (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA -117 (+27 diff), CLEVELAND -110 (+24), CINCINNATI -146 (+24), BOSTON -128 (+17), MILWAUKEE -127 (+17), BALTIMORE -118 (+15), ARIZONA +112 (+14), CHICAGO CUBS -114 (+10)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where, on Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 111-86 for +14.65 units and an ROI of 7.4%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TB-COL UNDER 11.5 (-0.8), CWS-BOS UNDER 8.5 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (69-45) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (65-49)
Trend: CHC is 25-14 (+3.28 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-114 vs LAD)
(903) WASHINGTON (55-60) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (61-53)
Trend: WSH is 38-20 (+12.94 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at PHI)
Trend: WSH is 9-25 (-11.43 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+174 at PHI)
(905) MIAMI (58-56) at (906) ATLANTA (68-45)
Trend: ATL is 37-20 (+8.16 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-117 vs MIA)
(907) PITTSBURGH (57-58) at (908) MILWAUKEE (70-43)
Trend: PIT is 10-23 (-17.91 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+119 at MIL)
(909) SAN DIEGO (59-55) at (910) ARIZONA (60-54)
Trend: Under the total is 28-19-4 (+7.10 units) when AZ is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-AZ (o/u at 8.5)
(913) LOS ANGELES-AL (43-70) at (914) BALTIMORE (55-58)
Trend: LAA is 9-18 (-9.35 units) on the road in the -160 to +131 line range with starter Reid Detmers
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+111 at BAL)
Trend: Over the total is 14-3-1 (+10.80 units) in road games with lower totals (o/u <= 8) with starter Reid Detmers in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-BAL (o/u at 8)
(919) DETROIT (55-58) at (920) SEATTLE (55-59)
Trend: SEA is 21-36 (-13.34 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs DET)
Trend: SEA is 27-6 (+18.34 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-152 vs DET)
(921) SAN FRANCISCO (48-66) at (922) TEXAS (56-58)
Trend: SF is 22-39 (-15.00 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+144 at TEX)
(923) TAMPA BAY (67-46) at (924) COLORADO (45-69)
Trend: TB is 49-37 (+25.62 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 at COL)
Trend: Under the total is 31-16-3 (+13.20 units) when starter Nick Martinez is in higher total games (o/u >= 8.5) since start of 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-COL (o/u at 11.5)
(925) NEW YORK-NL (48-66) at (926) CLEVELAND (57-57)
Trend: NYM is 4-9 (-6.37 units) on the road with starter Christian Scott in his career
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+103 at CLE)
Trend: CLE is 34-20 (+12.37 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-110 vs NYM)
(929) ST LOUIS (56-58) at (930) NEW YORK-AL (64-50)
Trend: Over the total is 11-6-3 (+4.45 units) against AL teams with starter Andre Pallante since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): STL-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #4: Detroit at Seattle, Tue 8/4-Thu 8/6
Trend: Underdogs are on 19-7 (73.1%, +17.41 units) surge in the SEA-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 67%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+143 at SEA)
Trend: Under the total is 9-3 (75%, +5.80 units) in the last 12 matchups between SEA and DET in Seattle
– The ROI on this trend is 48.3%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-SEA (o/u at 7.5)
Series #9: Minnesota at Kansas City, Tue 8/4-Thu 8/6
Trend: Home teams in the Royals-Twins AL Central rivalry are on a 44-18 (71%, +23.89 units) run in head-to-head play
– The ROI on this trend is 38.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-116 vs MIN)
Series #25: LA Angels at Baltimore, Tue 8/4-Thu 8/6
Trend: BALTIMORE has won 24 of the last 32 games (75%, +15.95 units) against LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 49.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-118 vs LAA)
Series #27: Chicago White Sox at Boston, Tue 8/4-Thu 8/6
Trend: Under the total is 12-5 (70.6%, +6.39 units) in the last 17 games of CWS-BOS in Boston (total runs in these games are at 7.7 RPG)
– The ROI on this trend is 37.6%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-BOS (o/u at 8.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): LA DODGERS, ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, TAMPA BAY, CLEVELAND, ATHLETICS, ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-CIN
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
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