Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, June 24, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: SEA is 2-8 (-5.75 units) as a road underdog within the line range -108 to +145 with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-102 at PIT)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 445-468 but for +29.14 units and an ROI of 3.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-114 at CWS), ATLANTA (-120 at SD)
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 227-261 SU but for +47.94 units (ROI: 9.8%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+141 vs BOS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 130-104 for -4.28 units and an ROI of -1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS GAME 1 (-121 vs CHC), ARIZONA (-102 at STL), CLEVELAND (-114 at CWS), LA ANGELS (-126 vs BAL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 23-21 for –5.72 units (ROI -13%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-118 vs SEA), MINNESOTA (+144 vs LAD)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 84-109 for +1.33 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect, however, it has lost almost 8.5 units the last two-plus weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+109 vs PHI), ST LOUIS (-118 vs AZ), BALTIMORE (+104 at LAA), COLORADO (+141 vs BOS), SAN FRANCISCO (-103 vs ATH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 156-198 for -24.35 units. This ROI of -6.9% is still highly advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-102 at STL), NY YANKEES (+113 at DET), MIAMI (+101 vs TEX), SEATTLE (-102 at PIT)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 129-82 for +31.40 units, an ROI of +14.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS GAME 1 (-121 vs CHC), NY METS GAME 2 (-121 vs CHC), ATLANTA (-120 at SD), CLEVELAND (-114 at CWS), LA ANGELS (-126 vs BAL), ATHLETICS (-117 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 98-123 start for -20.14 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-105 vs CLE), KANSAS CITY (+128 at TB), SAN DIEGO (+100 vs ATL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 445-468 but for +29.14 units and an ROI of 3.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-114 at CWS), ATLANTA (-120 at SD)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 389-439 but for +86.04 units and an ROI of 10.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+104 at LAA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 460-441 (51.2%) for +18.79 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-149 vs KC), MINNESOTA (+149 vs LAD)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2115-2005 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -274.60 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, PHILADELPHIA, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,147-2,722 (44.1%) for -270.65 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, ATHLETICS
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 647-535 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.35 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+122 vs MIL)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 101-147 SU (-23.02 units, ROI: -9.3%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+134 at TOR)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a 195-228 SU record for +42.87 units and an ROI of 10.1% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+109 vs PHI), MINNESOTA (+149 vs LAD)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 227-261 SU but for +47.94 units (ROI: 9.8%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+141 vs BOS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SEATTLE -102 (+26 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -105 (+19), SAN FRANCISCO -103 (+17), CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1 +100 (+17)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -171 (+23 diff), DETROIT -136 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LAD-MIN OVER 8 (+0.7), KC-TB OVER 7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CHC-NYM GAME 2 UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), CLE-CWS UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), BAL-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.5), SEA-PIT UNDER 8 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) PHILADELPHIA (43-36) at (902) WASHINGTON (41-39)
Trend: Over the total is 29-11-1 (+16.90 units) in WSH night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 9.5)
(903) CHICAGO-NL (41-37) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (34-44) (DH Game #2)
Trend: CHC is 35-16 (+12.02 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS GAME 2 (+100 at NYM)
(909) ATLANTA (48-30) at (910) SAN DIEGO (41-37)
Trend: ATL is 32-23 (+13.06 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 at SD)
(911) CLEVELAND (41-39) at (912) CHICAGO-AL (41-37)
Trend: CLE is 32-18 (+12.33 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-114 at CWS)
(913) BALTIMORE (38-43) at (914) LOS ANGELES-AL (33-48)
Trend: LAA is 1-11 (-14.96 units) with starter Jose Soriano in home games against non-divisional opponents with a losing record since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-126 vs BAL)
(917) NEW YORK-AL (47-31) at (918) DETROIT (34-45)
Trend: DET is 12-5 (+10.24 units) with starter Tarik Skubal against teams with a >60% win pct in his career
Trend: Tarik Skubal is 23-11 (+4.08 units) in his last 34 night game starts
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-136 vs NYY)
(923) BOSTON (32-45) at (924) COLORADO (31-49)
Trend: BOS is 20-33 (-9.95 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-1.5 at COL)
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 8-13 (-15.78 units) when he starts as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-171 at COL)
(925) SEATTLE (41-39) at (926) PITTSBURGH (39-40)
Trend: SEA is 2-8 (-5.75 units) as a road underdog within the line range -108 to +145 with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-102 at PIT)
(927) LOS ANGELES-NL (51-29) at (928) MINNESOTA (38-43)
Trend: Over the total is 28-12-4 (+14.80 units) in MIN night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAD-MIN (o/u at 8)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #25: Baltimore at LA Angels, Mon 6/22-Wed 6/24
Trend: BALTIMORE has won 23 of the last 30 games (76.7%, +15.95 units) against LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 53.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+104 at LAA)
Series #33: Milwaukee at Cincinnati, Mon 6/22-Wed 6/24
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 34-13 (72.3%, +18.99 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 40.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-147 at CIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in am MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, BOSTON, PITTSBURGH, LA DODGERS, ATHLETICS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS GAME 1, LA ANGELS, DETROIT, PITTSBURGH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-COL, BAL-LAA
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, June 29)
