Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, June 25 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Swerve (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Swerve
2. About Face
3. Olivetti
SWERVE is 8-1 on the line but looks the most likely winner on turf even with a wide draw. Granted, Supercharger got another great pace setup, but he did come back to win at the next allowance class and validate the race in which he beat Swerve. Moreover, Swerve wound up moving a touch early into the overheated pace and held well all things considered. Didn’t come from nowhere – been trending that direction since he set foot on grass. Cut back to one mile doesn’t hurt. How good is the first-time starter who wired his field and beat runner-up ABOUT FACE by more than two lengths? TBD. AF didn’t quicken all that much but ran fine and will contend on turf or dirt. OLIVETTI got bet in his lone start, last summer at SAR, but didn’t deliver. Career reset. Likely lower than 10-1 if live.
Here are Marcus’s thoughts on the other seven races on Thursday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Imminent Risk
2. Nola Louise
3. Beauxbatons
Four starts, one claiming tag for IMMINENT RISK, that $50K in her most recent race. Connections basically giving up on her dropping to $12.5K – but also note the low $13K purchase price. Dirt? No clue. Intent? Pretty sure positive – barn in race for leading trainer final week of meet. Liked NOLA LOUISE coming back from the long layoff last out – nada. Possibly just 100% ring rusty and will show improvement concurrent with class drop to lowest level. And, finally, BEAUXBATONS another dropper along the lines of Imminent Risk. This horse we have at least seen on dirt – what we’ve seen less than IR has showed not on dirt.
Second Race
1. Awesome Ruta
2. Welaka
3. Clooney
What sort of horse most likely to hold form over a sustained run? A starter-allowance horse! In races like this, you can find a superior animal who never has to move up in class – a horse like AWESOME RUTA. Until he starts to show any cracks in the foundation, it’s going to take someone better than, say, WELAKA, to knock him off his throne. Moreover, looks like he can dictate tempo from an inside draw. Welaka comes out of a tough N3X allowance with a $100K claiming option, but to be fair, he was nowhere near winning. Got some good starter form not too far back either, but what he doesn’t have is Awesome Ruta’s speed. Suppose one could argue that CLOONEY, refugee from the SoCal circuit, will be better second time at CD this meet than first – he was pretty good in the first, but nowhere close to the top pick.
Third Race
1. Memory
2. Honey Dutch
3. Maui Strong
It’s not a great race for the level, and while MEMORY did not hit his level last out, I think it’s fair to say his better races on dirt would make him a win contender here on turf – and I think it’s fair to say the pedigree offers enough turf suggestions that at anything near the morning-line odds he’d be value. Funny – HONEY DUTCH is like the turf version of his 3yo dirt stablemate Ocelli. HD actually has been more consistent – but also consistently coming up short. No doubt fits with this group. MAUI STRONG has some slightly hidden upside, but enough to win? Maybe.
Fourth Race
1. Real Macho
2. Groveland
3. Couperin
REAL MACHO in a vacuum looks like a horse who can run better this start than he did in his last – and that sense grows even stronger looking back at the charts the day of his last race. An overwhelming strong outside and off-the-pace flow to the dirt races – which is how the horse who beat him ran. One workout video since his race – looked pretty decent for a horse of his ilk. GROVELAND claimed in November and … just now runs back. Hard to know which way to think with these waived claiming prices – sometimes it means they don’t want to lose the horse in the comeback race that he “needs.” I think this one is relatively well meant. Don’t have to go back far in the form to find COUPERIN looking much stronger than the 30-1 at which he sits on the line.
Fifth Race
1. Another Monarch
2. Xcel
3. Na Pali Joe
Puzzled through this one – and still murky. ANOTHER MONARCH seems like he has something better than his last two somewhere near the surface of his form? Not just the $10K higher tag, but thought his last start was a considerably tougher race than this. Seems to be in the right spot if he can run his race. XCEL cast off from the E Coast, but while dismal last time, has a contending performance just two races ago at this same one-turn mile trip. Pretty confident NA PALI JOE exceeds his last-start performance level – not confident to what degree. Has a competitive run in him.
Seventh Race
1. Munnings Challenge
2. It’s Our Time
3. Lincoln’s Law
Inside draw to outside draw could make all the difference for MUNNINGS CHALLENGE, who wants to show speed but will be more comfortable as the one pressing up from the outside than being pressed while racing inside. Thought the winner last out was quite good, at least on the day. Don’t know which way to go with IT’S OUR TIME – obviously a special debut at SAR, but that’s a fairly early 2yo race, and who knows how he’s matured. Can make excuses for his next two, and breeze video at least moderately encouraging – not encouraging is the rail draw. LINCOLN’S LAW cuts back to what might be a more suitable distance, ran into the very talented Canoneer two back, and can at least pick up some pieces.
Eighth Race
1. Daisy Flyer
2. Night of Rose
3. Evershed
DAISY FLYER clearly is capable of much more than she showed in the KEE comeback run – where she didn’t show much of anything. Had she not trained out of that race like a horse who still “had it,” trainer would not have her back in action. She”ll generally be dismissed and stands a good chance of outrunning her odds. While Pretty Picture did not come back to cover herself in glory in the G1 New York, she’s a graded stakes horse and NIGHT OF ROSE nearly beat her at KEE while making her N American debut. No fluke – she was good in Brazil, too. Little hiccup after that race but seems back on track now. EVERSHED off since November but this stable obviously can have a horse ready returning from a long break. Don’t judge her on her most recent run – the form through Laurelin stamps her as a contender.
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