Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, May 27, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 33-6 (+17.40 units) in his last 39 starts vs AL Central opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-157 at KC)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 381-417 but for +98.98 units and an ROI of 12.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+153 at CLE), ST LOUIS (+128 at MIL)
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more are on a 40-105 skid (-41.88 units, ROI -28.9%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PIT)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 95-77 start for -6.82 units and an ROI of -5.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-126 at ATH), MINNESOTA (-109 at CWS)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a GO AGAINST angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 13-12 for -1.62 units and an ROI of -6.5%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): LA ANGELS (-107 at DET)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 34-45 for -14.61 units and an ROI of -18.5%!
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+119 vs PHI)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 60-74 for +7.24 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+128 at MIL), BALTIMORE (-109 vs TB), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-110 vs MIN), WASHINGTON (+154 at CLE)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 28-16 but for -11.65 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-411 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 105-124 for -7.51 units. However, it did get back +3.14 units in the last two-and-a-half weeks alone.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-101 vs AZ), SAN DIEGO (+119 vs PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (-110 at BAL), MINNESOTA (-109 at CWS), MIAMI (+129 at TOR), ATLANTA (-102 at BOS)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 65-76 start for -3.66 units (ROI -2.6%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 31-36 for -2.53 units and an ROI of -3.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – PHILADELPHIA (-143 at SD), BALTIMORE (-109 vs TB)
3+ games – WASHINGTON (+154 at CLE), ARIZONA (-120 at SF), PITTSBURGH (-119 vs CHC), LA ANGELS (-107 at DET), CINCINNATI (-102 at NYM)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 55-62 for -0.67 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+128 at MIL), BOSTON (-118 vs ATL), COLORADO (+315 at LAD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 433-454 but for +30.27 units and an ROI of 3.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+128 at MIL), SAN DIEGO (+119 vs PHI), TAMPA BAY (-110 at BAL), NY METS (-120 vs CIN), COLORADO (+315 at LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 381-417 but for +98.98 units and an ROI of 12.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+153 at CLE), ST LOUIS (+128 at MIL)
*WATCH FOR CINCINNATI at NYM (-101 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 165-66 for +17.11 units and an ROI of 7.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-411 vs COL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,066-1,957 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -265.86 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (-107 at DET), PITTSBURGH (-119 vs CHC), NY YANKEES (-157 at KC), TEXAS (-144 vs HOU), LA DODGERS (-411 vs COL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,093-2,664 (44%) for -268.01 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-110 at BAL), ST LOUIS (+128 at MIL), MIAMI (+129 at TOR), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PIT)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 375-189 (66.5%) for +50.42 units and an ROI of 8.9%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-411 vs COL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 338-302 (52.9%) for +21.21 units and an ROI of 3.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+129 vs NYY)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 525-599 SU but for +73.49 units (ROI: 6.5%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 175-195 SU for +32.94 units in the last 370 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+129 at TOR), ST LOUIS (+128 at MIL), HOUSTON (+119 at TEX)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more are on a 40-105 skid (-41.88 units, ROI -28.9%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PIT)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 19-24 (+7.91 units, ROI: 18.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 99-185 (-66.84 units, ROI: -23.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PIT)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 41-79 in their last 120 tries (-22.65 units, ROI: -18.9%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at PIT)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 296-310 run (+8.55 units, ROI: 1.4%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NY METS (-120 vs CIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 36-71 (-7.16 units, ROI: -6.7%) in their last 107 tries.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+153 at CLE)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 161-156 (-58.98 units, ROI: -18.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+153 at CLE), LA DODGERS (-411 vs COL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +315 (+65 diff), ATLANTA -105 (+35), ATHLETICS +108 (+17)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS -144 (+30 diff), MILWAUKEE -154 (+28), NY YANKEES -157 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-CWS OVER 7.5 (+1.2), AZ-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.7), STL-MIL OVER 8 (+0.5), PHI-SD OVER 7 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHC-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.5), NYY-KC UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) ST LOUIS (29-24) at (902) MILWAUKEE (32-20)
Trend: STL is 23-14 (+3.63 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at MIL)
(905) PHILADELPHIA (28-27) at (906) SAN DIEGO (31-23)
Trend: PHI is 17-27 (-15.32 units) in line range of -145 or worse (towards underdog) with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-143 at SD)
(909) CINCINNATI (29-25) at (910) NEW YORK-NL (22-33)
Trend: NYM is 3-11 (-13.30 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-120 vs CIN)
(913) SEATTLE (27-29) at (914) ATHLETICS (27-28)
Trend: SEA has a 12-3 record when facing the Athletics with starter Logan Gilbert in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-126 at ATH)
(917) LOS ANGELES-AL (21-34) at (918) DETROIT (21-34)
Trend: DET has a 4-1 record when they’ve faced LAA with starter Casey Mize in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-112 vs LAA)
(919) NEW YORK-AL (33-22) at (920) KANSAS CITY (22-33)
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 33-6 (+17.40 units) in his last 39 starts vs AL Central opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-157 at KC)
Trend: Under the total is 14-5-1 (+8.50 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-KC (o/u at 9)
(923) HOUSTON (24-32) at (924) TEXAS (25-29)
Trend: Under the total is 16-6-1 (+9.40 units) in TEX home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: TEX is 14-5 (+5.13 units) in the last 19 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-144 at HOU)
(925) MIAMI (26-30) at (926) TORONTO (26-29)
Trend: Over the total is 17-3-2 (+13.70 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-TOR (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 17-25 (-23.29 units) when he starts at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-156 vs MIA)
(927) WASHINGTON (29-27) at (928) CLEVELAND (32-25)
Trend: WSH is 23-7 (+13.73 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at CLE)
(929) ATLANTA (37-18) at (930) BOSTON (22-31)
Trend: ATL is 17-5 (+11.13 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-105 at BOS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): ST LOUIS, LA ANGELS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, WASHINGTON, LA ANGELS
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next few Friday, May 29)
