MLB Best Bets Today September 2
A split schedule is on tap for Wednesday, as we have a handful of day games and a bigger handful of night games on the September 2 card. That means that there are some early distractions for those who need one and some evening attention-grabbers for those awaiting the start of Week 1 college football tomorrow. Some games will grab more attention than others.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 2:
Marlins vs. Royals Prediction
Pick: Royals -112
If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. That’s the approach I’ll take today with Noah Cameron, who just seems to be locked in quite the heater. His Royals have been playing really well of late and he’s had a lot to do with that with a 1.29 ERA over his last six starts and one bulk relief outing. The sophomore southpaw has given up just seven runs on 21 hits in his last 48.2 innings of work.
The Marlins, despite drawing a lot of walks, were just 24th in wOBA against LHP in the month of August, as they didn’t really hit for much power at all. Cameron’s only blip in that sample size came against the Dodgers with four runs over 5.2 innings of work, definitely an excusable performance given the talent level in that lineup. Cameron has allowed a 35.2% Hard Hit% and just four Barrels in that span.
Eury Perez will get the call for the Fish today, as the big right-hander looks to bounce back from a tough outing against the Nationals. He allowed five runs on just two hits, but also walked four and has had a lot of control issues lately. For the most part, he had pitched around them here in the second half, but there is usually a runway for that sort of thing. Over 45 innings, he has a 2.80 ERA in the second half, but his BB% is up to 12.2% and his BABIP against of .245 is tricky to maintain.
Here, he’s out on the road where he has a 13.3% BB% against. He does have a K% of 30%, but the Royals had the fourth-lowest K% against RHP in August and finished third in wOBA and fourth in wRC+. They did really good offensively in that split and should have a big advantage tonight.
Lastly, all of the leverage arms are available for the Royals here if they do have a lead to protect and I think that they will.
White Sox vs. Astros Prediction
Pick: White Sox +118
Davis Martin and Hayden Wesneski were both Texas college baseball products when they were drafted, as Martin was taken in 2018 out of Texas Tech and Wesneski was selected in 2019 out of Sam Houston State. They’ll match up here in the third game of four in this series. So far, things are 1-1.
Martin is coming off of the IL following a finger issue. While I typically don’t like to play guys in their first start off the injured list, Martin looked great in his rehab start with five shutout innings and just one hit and one walk allowed. It was pretty clear that he needed a reset after posting an ERA of nearly 10.00 over his last five starts before landing on the IL.
That kind of submarined what was a good season for Martin, as he enters this start with a 4.32 ERA, 4.69 xERA, and a 3.72 FIP. He had a 3.31 ERA prior to that injury setback and his subsequent rough outings. I prefer to think of him as that guy.
In this start, specifically, I’m backing some awesome ratios for him against right-handed batters. He has a 22.6% K% with just a 4.5% BB%. He’s been extremely unlucky to have a .338 BABIP against them, as his Statcast numbers in that split look fine. I think the most important thing is that he has only allowed a 5.9% Barrel% to RHB.
Wesneski has some reverse platoon splits this season in that he’s been better against left-handed batters compared to right-handed batters, but that is not the case at all for his career. Lefties have a 10.2% Barrel% against him lifetime and a .442 SLG with a 16.1% HR/FB%. The White Sox are a team loaded with left-handed power and that is what they’ll be looking to use to their advantage here in this matchup.
I think Chicago has a starter advantage, a lineup advantage, and their primary relievers are all available. So are Houston’s, but at the underdog price, the White Sox have enough meat on the bone for me to back.
