Today the workweek ends with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds (-175, 9)
The Marlins (32-61) just got swept by the Astros, losing yesterday’s Interleague series finale 6-3 as +155 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Reds (45-49) just took three of four against the Rockies, winning 8-1 yesterday as -200 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Marlins hand the ball to righty Yonny Chirinos (0-0, 4.19 ERA) and the Reds counter with fellow righty Carson Spiers (2-2, 3.64 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -145 home favorite and Miami a +130 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Reds laying moderate chalk at home, steaming Cincinnati up from -145 to -175. The Reds are receiving 90% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy one-way support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a big 30-cent steam move in their favor. The Reds have the more explosive bats, hitting 98 homers with 413 runs scored compared to the Marlins hitting only 75 homers with 323 runs scored. Cincinnati has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. When both teams are below .500, the favorite is 191-130 (60%) with a 1% ROI this season. The Reds are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .242 with a 3.40 ERA. The Marlins are 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting .237 with a 4.85 ERA. Miami is 14-30 on the road this season, the 4th-worst road record in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-120, 8.5) at San Diego Padres
The Braves (51-41) just split a four-game series against the Diamondbacks, dropping yesterday’s series finale 1-0 as -110 road favorites. On the other hand, the Padres (49-47) just got swept in a two-game series against the Mariners, losing Wednesday’s series finale 2-0 as -135 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Braves start righty Spencer Schwellenbach (2-4, 5.02 ERA) and the Padres turn to fellow righty Randy Vasquez (2-4, 4.66 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -130 road favorite and San Diego a +115 home dog. The public is laying the short road chalk with Atlanta. However, despite receiving 64% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Braves fall from -130 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement on San Diego, with pros grabbing the plus money with the Padres and triggering a line move in their favor (+115 to +105) despite being the unpopular side. San Diego is receiving 36% of moneyline bets but 52% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. The Padres have the superior offense, hitting .261 with 440 runs scored compared to the Braves hitting .242 with 395 runs scored. San Diego also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Padres were off yesterday and are in the middle of a homestand while the Braves played Arizona last night and now must travel to Petco Park on a back-to-back. The Padres are 3-1 against the Braves this season. Schwellenbach has a 6.89 ERA on the road compared to 3.68 at home. San Diego is 5-2 in Vasquez’s last seven starts. He has a 3.41 ERA at home compared to 6.15 on the road.
10:15 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (-145, 7.5) at San Francisco Giants
The Twins (53-40) just took two of three against the White Sox, winning the series finale 3-2 as -210 road favorites. On the flip side, the Giants (45-49) just dropped two of three against the Blue Jays, falling 5-3 yesterday as -130 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Twins send out righty Joe Ryan (6-5, 3.29 ERA) and the Giants rebuttal with lefty Kyle Harrison (4-4, 4.24 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -130 road favorite and San Francisco a +115 home dog. Sharps have pounced on Minnesota laying short road chalk, steaming the Twins up from -130 to -145. The Twins are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars, signaling lopsided support from both wiseguys and the public in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Minnesota has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Twins also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team as well. Minnesota has the better offense, hitting .255 with 114 homers and 459 runs scored compared to San Francisco hitting .244 with 96 homers and 415 runs scored. The Twins also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as they were off yesterday while the Giants hosted the Blue Jays. Ryan has a 2.78 ERA on the road compared to 3.81 at home. Minnesota is hitting .284 against lefties this season, ranking 1st in MLB against southpaws.
