The MLB All Star Break is over and the regular season is back in full swing with 14-games to choose from today. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
Top MLB Resources:
2:20 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs (-145, 7.5)
The Diamondbacks (49-48) ended the unofficial first half by taking two of three against the Blue Jays but lost the series finale 8-7 as -155 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cubs (47-51) just dropped two of three against the Cardinals but won the series finale 8-3 as +105 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series opener, the Diamondbacks hand the ball to righty Ryne Nelson (6-6, 4.98 ERA) and the Cubs counter with lefty Justin Steele (2-3, 2.71 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -115 road favorite and Chicago a +105 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on Chicago, triggering massive line movement in their favor (+105 to -145). Essentially, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement on Chicago. The Cubs are receiving 61% of moneyline bets but 82% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team favored to win. The Cubs also have value as non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity also favoring the team expected to win. Steele posted a 2.13 ERA in six June starts and a 0.56 ERA in two July starts. The Cubs are 25-21 at home. The Diamondbacks are 23-24 on the road.
6:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-165, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Phillies (62-34) just dropped two of three against the Athletics, losing the series finale 18-3 as -245 home favorites. On the other hand, the Pirates (48-48) just swept the White Sox, winning the series finale 9-4 as -165 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies go with righty Aaron Nola (11-4, 3.38 ERA) and the Pirates rebuttal with lefty Martin Perez (1-5, 5.15 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -135 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +120 home dog. Wiseguys have jumped on the Phillies laying modest road chalk, steaming Philadelphia up from -135 to -165. The Phillies are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars, indicating one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp action from both pros and the betting public. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 55-33 (62%) with a 5% ROI this season. The Phillies are 54-26 (68%) as a favorite this season, the second best chalk team in MLB. Philadelphia has the edge at the plate, hitting .259 with 118 homers and 477 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .231 with 99 homers and 402 runs scored. The Phillies have additional betting system value as a non-division favorite and a favorite in a low total game (8). Philadelphia is 15-4 in Nola’s 19 starts this season. Pittsburgh is 4-10 in Perez’s 14 starts. The Phillies are hitting .262 against lefties this season, 7th-best in MLB. The Phillies are 25-18 on the road. The Pirates are 22-24 at home.
7:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians (-160, 7.5)
The Padres (50-49) just dropped two of three against the Braves, losing the series finale 6-3 as +140 home dogs. Similarly, the Guardians (58-37) just lost two of three against the Rays, falling in the series finale 2-0 as +110 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Padres tap righty Matt Waldron (5-8, 3.71 ERA) and the Guardians go with fellow righty Tanner Bibee (7-4, 3.77 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -125 home favorite and San Diego a +115 road dog. Sharps have jumped on the Guardians laying modest chalk at home, steaming Cleveland up from -125 to -160. The Guardians are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, signaling both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 35-cent steam move in their favor. Cleveland has value as a favorite with 10-cents of steam or more playing a team who missed the postseason the previous year (161-104, 61% this season) and a favorite with a winning record off a loss (194-130, 60%). The Guardians are 42-18 (70%) as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in baseball. Cleveland has additional value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Cleveland also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Guardians are 30-11 at home, the best home team in MLB.
