MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, July 31.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
2:20 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs
While the Yankees are averaging only about 3.5 runs per game over their past 33 games, they should benefit from favorable warm and windy hitting conditions. They face Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga, who owns a 3.72 ERA and a 4.40 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Imanaga has also allowed more hard contact recently, posting a 4.86 ERA with 2.3 home runs allowed per nine innings over his past 12 appearances. Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren owns a 4.41 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.2 walks allowed per nine innings and faces a Cubs lineup that ranks second in scoring with nearly 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Yankees vs. Cubs Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.2
7:07 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy has put together a solid season with a 3.55 ERA while allowing 1.1 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks last in the league with fewer than four runs per game. Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease has been dominant with a 2.46 ERA and a 2.32 fielding independent while recording 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings and allowing only 0.6 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Blue Jays Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
7:10 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde is fortunate to own a 4.25 ERA, as his 5.45 fielding independent includes 1.8 home runs and 3.3 walks allowed per nine innings with only 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez is also pitching to a lot of contact with only 5.2 strikeouts per nine innings, making him vulnerable to regression on his 2.45 ERA since his fielding independent sits at 3.77. However, he has allowed only 0.8 home runs and 1.5 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -134 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -170 and Total 8.6
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Mitch Bratt has not provided much length in his four career MLB starts, totaling only 15 2/3 innings with a 6.32 ERA. He is backed by a Diamondbacks bullpen that ranks 17th in ERA since June 1 at 4.40. The Guardians rank ninth during that span with a 3.64 bullpen ERA and send Tanner Bibee to the mound. Bibee owns a 3.89 ERA despite recording a career-low seven strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -132
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -144
7:15 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
While Nationals starting pitcher Foster Griffin owns an outstanding 2.76 ERA, his 3.94 fielding independent points toward some regression. He faces a Braves lineup that ranks sixth in scoring with nearly 4.9 runs per game. Atlanta will send Bryce Elder to the mound, and he owns a 3.96 ERA with a 4.47 fielding independent while recording only 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings and allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings. Elder is tasked with facing a Nationals lineup that leads the league in scoring with 5.5 runs per game, but the Braves hold a clear bullpen edge, ranking first in the National League with a 3.45 bullpen ERA, while the Nationals rank last at 5.03.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -126 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -134 and Total 9.2
8:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies
The Royals rank last in the league in road scoring with fewer than 3.7 runs per game and will send Michael Wacha to the mound. Wacha owns a 3.60 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.6 walks allowed per nine innings, but pitching to a lot of contact at Coors Field can be problematic, as he is recording only 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Neither team has a strong bullpen, as the Royals rank 29th in ERA at 5.24 while the Rockies rank 27th at 5.01. Colorado will send Tomoyuki Sugano to the mound. He owns a 4.69 ERA with 1.9 home runs allowed and only 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings but is backed by a lineup that ranks fifth in home scoring with more than five runs per game.
Pick: Rockies Moneyline -108 and Over 11 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rockies -133 and Total 11.8
9:40 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Ryan Johnson has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, posting a 7.34 ERA and a 6.28 fielding independent while allowing 2.4 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that ranks fifth in scoring with nearly 5.1 runs per game. The Angels rank last in the American League in home scoring with 3.7 runs per game and will face Brewers starting pitcher Shane Drohan, who owns a 3.51 ERA and a 3.01 fielding independent while allowing only 0.7 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +100
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -1.5 -128
