Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Chicago Cubs (-145, 9.5)
The Mariners (37-36) just dropped two of three against the Red Sox, losing the series finale 3-1 as +100 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cubs (45-29) just split a two-game series against the Brewers, falling 8-7 yesterday as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Mariners hand the ball to righty George Kirby (1-3, 5.96 ERA) and the Cubs counter with lefty Matthew Boyd (6-3, 2.79 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -125 home favorite and Seattle a +105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cubs laying short chalk at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -125 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of Chicago.
When both teams missed the postseason the previous year, the Interleague home favorite is 48-25 (65%) with a 6% ROI this season. The Cubs are 36-15 (71%) with a 14% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in MLB. Chicago is also 21-5 (81%) with a 44% ROI off a loss, the best “bounce back” team in MLB.
The Cubs have the better bats, hitting .254 with 102 homers and 397 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .242 with 91 homers and 317 runs scored.
Boyd has a 1.86 ERA in three June starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 19.1 innings pitched. He is 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA at home this season.
7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-145, 9) at Miami Marlins
The Braves (34-39) just swept the Mets, winning 7-1 yesterday as -140 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Marlins (29-44) just dropped three of four against the Phillies, losing 2-1 yesterday as +120 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Braves start righty Didier Fuentes, who is making his MLB debut, and the Marlins turn to fellow righty Janson Junk (1-0, 2.78 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -135 road favorite and Miami a +115 home dog.
Sharps are banking on the Braves staying hot, steaming Atlanta up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Braves are receiving 74% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Atlanta is taking in 86% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Favorites who made the postseason the previous year receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their direction are 202-160 (66%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Atlanta has the more explosive bats, hitting 78 homers and scoring 307 runs compared to Miami hitting 64 homers and scoring 295 runs.
The Braves are playing well as of late, going 7-3 with a 2.83 team ERA over their last ten games compared to the Marlins going 5-5 with a 4.40 team ERA.
Atlanta has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.80 compared to 4.52 for Miami (8th worst in MLB).
7:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-145, 9)
The Reds (39-36) just took two of three against the Twins but failed to complete the sweep, losing 12-5 yesterday as -115 home favorites. On the flip side, the Cardinals (40-35) just swept the White Sox, winning yesterday’s doubleheader 5-4 as -145 road favorites and then winning again 8-6 in extra innings as -175 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Reds tap righty Brady Singer (7-4, 4.34 ERA) and the Cardinals trot out fellow righty Andre Pallante (4-3, 4.83 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -130 home favorite and Cincinnati a +110 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 moneyline bet split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Cardinals jump up from -130 to -145.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with the home chalk Cardinals, triggering a 15-cent adjustment in their direction.
At DraftKings, St. Louis is only taking in 50% of moneyline bets but 67% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the more respected wiseguy wagers in their favor.
Home favorites -130 or more in the opening game of a new series are 114-59 (66%) with a 3% ROI this season. St. Louis is 13-5 (72%) with a 37% ROI at home when receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their direction.
The Cardinals are hitting .275 at home this season (3rd best in MLB) and .261 against righties (3rd best).
