Today a new week begins with a smaller than usual 8 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-135, 8)
The Cardinals (14-13) just got swept by the Mariners, losing 3-2 yesterday as +110 home dogs. On the other hand, the Pirates (16-12) just took two of three against the Brewers but failed to earn the sweep, falling 5-0 yesterday as +100 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cardinals go with righty Dustin May (3-2, 5.84 ERA) and the Pirates counter with lefty Mason Montgomery (1-0, 3.97 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -125 home favorite and St. Louis a +105 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Pirates laying modest chalk at home, pushing Pittsburgh up from -125 to -135.
At Circa, the Pirates are receiving 87% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor from the Vegas sharps.
Pittsburgh has the better bats, hitting .241 with 135 runs scored compared to St. Louis hitting .235 with 125 runs scored.
The Pirates are hitting .275 at home, tied for 2nd best in MLB. On the other hand, the Cardinals are hitting .223 on the road (24th).
Pittsburgh is 10-1 (91%) with a 71% ROI off a loss this season, the second best bounce back team in MLB following the Guardians.
May has an 8.31 ERA on the road compared to 4.50 at home. Meanwhile, Montgomery has a 1.93 ERA at home compared to 5.40 on the road.
Pittsburgh has an edge in the bullpen as well, sporting an ERA of 3.17 (5th best in MLB), compared to 5.25 for St. Louis (6th worst).
The Pirates are 10-4 (71%) with a 25% ROI as a favorite this season, the 2nd best chalk team in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (-115, 7.5)
The Cubs (17-11) just dropped two of three against the Dodgers, losing 6-0 yesterday as +105 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Padres (18-9) just split a two-game series in Mexico against the Diamondbacks, losing 12-7 yesterday as -135 neutral site favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cubs send out lefty Matthew Boyd (1-1, 5.79 ERA) and the Padres turn to righty Randy Vasquez (2-0, 1.88 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -115 road favorite and San Diego a -105 home dog.
The public is leaning toward the Cubs, who are taking in 56% of moneyline bets at DraftKings.
However, despite the majority of tickets backing Chicago we’ve actually seen this line flip in favor of San Diego, moving the Padres from a -105 home dog to a -115 home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on the Padres at home.
At Circa, San Diego is receiving 47% of moneyline bets and 57% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
San Diego has betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Padres are 5-0 in Vasquez’s five starts this season. Meanwhile, Boyd has a 6.75 ERA on the road this season.
San Diego is 11-4 (73%) with a 22% ROI as a favorite this season, the 3rd best chalk team in MLB.
