Today we kick off a new week with a smaller than usual 8 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-200, 8.5) at Kansas City Royals
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Phillies (50-40) won the opener 6-1, taking care of business as -160 road favorites. Then the Royals (36-54) bounced back with a 5-2 win yesterday, cashing as +115 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Phillies hand the ball to lefty ace Cristopher Sanchez (10-3, 2.00 ERA) and the Royals counter with fellow southpaw Noah Cameron (4-6, 4.95 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -165 road favorite and Kansas City a +145 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Phillies to earn a win and take the series, steaming Philadelphia up from -165 to -200 and even -210 across the market.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are receiving 88% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
Monday favorites coming off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Phillies here, are 31-17 (65%) with an 8% ROI this season.
Monday favorites -200 or more are 11-2 (85%) with a 21% ROI this season.
The Phillies have the better bats, posting a .404 slug with 402 runs scored compared to the Royals posting a .387 slug with 369 runs scored.
Philadelphia is 10-2 in Sanchez’s last 12 starts.
Meanwhile, Cameron posted a 5.52 ERA in six June starts, giving up 19 earned runs in 31 innings pitched. He has a 5.44 ERA at home compared to 4.38 on the road.
The Phillies are 25-19 (57%) on the road, the 4th best road record in MLB, and 22-17 (56%) off a loss, 6th best in MLB.
7:15 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-130, 9)
This is the final game of a four-game series.
The Braves (52-36) won the first two games, taking the opener 5-3 as -115 home favorites and then winning the second game 14-3 as -200 home favorites. Then the Mets (37-53) clawed back with a 10-9 win yesterday, coming through as -115 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Mets send out righty Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.81 ERA) and the Braves turn to fellow righty Reynaldo Lopez (4-1, 3.31 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -125 home favorite and New York a +105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly laid the short chalk with the Braves at home, pushing Atlanta up from -125 to -130.
Wiseguys have also targeted Atlanta on the run-line (-1.5 at +150), as the Braves are taking in over 90% of spread bets and dollars at Circa, indicating heavy support from the pros in the desert.
Home favorites priced -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 105-65 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season.
The Braves have the edge at the plate, hitting .248 with 431 runs scored compared to the Mets hitting .231 with 362 runs scored.
Lopez is 3-0 with a 3.19 ERA at home this season.
Meanwhile, the Mets are 1-4 in Peralta’s last five starts. He is 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA on the road.
The Braves are 27-17 (61%) at home (6th best in MLB) and 22-13 (63%) off a loss (2nd best).
On the other hand, the Mets are 18-29 (38%) on the road (5th worst) and just 2-13 (13%) as a road underdog (2nd worst).
10:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (-230, 9.5)
The Rockies (37-54) just took two of three against the Giants, winning yesterday’s series finale 7-6 as +105 home dogs. Similarly, the Dodgers (59-32) just took three of four against the Padres but failed to complete the sweep, dropping yesterday’s series finale 5-2 as -230 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rockies tap lefty Kyle Freeland (2-7, 7.25 ERA) and the Dodgers rebuttal with fellow southpaw Eric Lauer (4-5, 4.84 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -180 home favorite and Colorado a +160 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive price and have laid the wood with the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -180 to -230.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are receiving 91% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe split in their favor.
Home favorites priced between -200 and -240 receiving at least 15-cents of steam in their favor, like the Dodgers here, are 113-45 (72%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
Monday home favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season are 31-17 (65%) with an 8% ROI this season. Monday favorites -200 or more are 11-2 (85%) with a 21% ROI this season.
Lauer posted a 3.18 ERA in five June starts (all wins), allowing only 10 earned runs in 28.1 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Freeland is 0-5 with an 8.31 ERA on the road this season.
The Dodgers are 29-15 (66%) at home this season, 3rd best in MLB. Conversely, the Rockies are 14-27 (34%) on the road, 2nd worst in MLB.
Los Angeles is 22-9 (71%) off a loss, the best bounce back team in MLB.
