MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
As we begin the final regular season week before this year’s MLB All-Star break, I bring you another MLB Bullpen Systems update. This past week has been another one of just slow losses for our EASIEST system, and if you are still playing that, I encourage you to read my advisements against doing so below. For me, it is simply a starting point before narrowing down plays. Almost all of the more detailed systems are producing better and involve less risk. Let’s face it, playing almost every baseball game of a season is a challenge, particularly if you are not taking advantage by using betting shops with better odds than the big mainstream entities. In this update, I will be keeping you apprised of the latest records and highlights, plus I will be answering another important question I received from a reader this week regarding my simulation score projections on VSiN.com.
Unfortunately, with most of the systems this year performing below their standard levels, I’m left to justify playing a lot of them by the advantages they provide over average wagering rather than the actual profit amounts they are bringing. While this still does provide benefit for the VSiN reader, I’m sure, like me, you are disappointed in what we’ve seen so far from bullpen betting strategies. That said, the one angle that continues to produce each and every week has been the CORRELATION SYSTEM #2, a play against angle that states: Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse are 47-85 for -42.19 units and an ROI of -31.9%! Fading these teams is producing better than ever before. This is basically saying that good bullpens are a waste if the starting pitcher lets an opponent get too far out in front.
Back in line with the “advantage over average wagering theme”, the IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER angle continues to keep bettors afloat. This angle says to BACK teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record. So far in 2026, it is 144-116 (55.4%) for -6.73 units and an ROI of -2.6%. While not profitable, a ROI of -2.6% does provide a chance for profit if line shopping.
Now, back to the main subject I wanted to address. Last week, I received an email from a VSiN customer who has been a subscriber for many years and finally had the courage to ask me how my simulation score projections do. I thought I would add this important question and answer to this week’s bullpen systems update, as in some ways, it deals with similar subject matter, and also because I find this has been a good space to communicate with readers. The short answer to the question is similar to the way the bullpen systems are performing this year. The simulation scores are advantageous but not profitable. They are best used in conjunction with many of the other data pieces offered on VSiN, including my own Analytics Reports, the team trend analysis, Greg Peterson’s lines/scores projections, and even the Expert Best Bets. This is EXACTLY how my score projections are faring for ’26 in games through Sunday 7/5:
Using the score projections for ALL games, backing whichever team has the edge in pricing against the actual, that team’s record is 645-665 for -52.29 units for an ROI of -3.9%.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have found that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with a 10-cent edge against the actual odds have gone 368-365 for -2.27 units, good for -0.3% ROI.
More often than not, these score projections will give these 10-cent edges to underdogs, as my model, as well as my own personal wagering belief, is that underdogs and smaller-priced favorites offer the best chance at long-term success in betting MLB. This -2.27 unit tally is almost the smallest loss over a 733-game span, and I would challenge anyone’s mathematical models to beat it over the course of a half-season of baseball games.
If you’d like to try getting behind these score projections regularly, I would encourage you to visit the DAILY MATCHUP RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. When you’re there, you will find a score projection for every game plus an Eff Line (Effective Line) for the home team using my math model. When the line for either team is off by 10 cents or more, it would meet this criterion. For instance, today, my Eff Line for the Royals (against Philadelphia) is listed at +157. The actual line is +178. That means KC has a +21 cent edge here and would be considered a play.
Any further questions on the PROJECTED SIMULATION SCORES, please feel free to ask.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first half of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The EASIEST way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and an ROI of 0%. For 2026, this EASY system is off to a slower start this season, 581-555 in all for -96.37 units, and an ROI of -8.5%.
This percentage ROI loss still outperforms the average bettor loss for playing EVERY game. However, it has made big drops in back-to-back weeks and does go to prove how crucial it is to get the best lines you can for every wager you make. We are winning 51.1% of our games, but betting almost EVERY game is a tough strategy regardless. It’s usually the case that EASIEST isn’t always BEST, although the nearly dead-even returns on 2,142 games last year validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for bigger edges, and at this point I can’t honestly advise playing every game on the easiest system. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early ‘26 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in ‘25. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a GO AGAINST angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For ’26, these teams are 31-27 for –4.35 units (ROI -7.5%).
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another GO AGAINST angle that does well. To start the ’26 season, these teams are again struggling, 47-85 for -42.19 units and a ROI of -31.9%! Fading these teams is producing better than ever before.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 170-133 start for -23.72 units and an ROI of -7.8%. I might suggest leaving this one off your radar until it starts turning back around.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For ’26, they are off to a rare positive start, 99-125 for +3.74 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect. However, it has lost over 6 units the last four weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 144-116 for -6.73 units and an ROI of -2.6%.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 45-25 for -10.33 units, ROI -14.8%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 32-19 but for -14.34 units so far.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative FADE system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 22-15 start for -11.45 units, and an ROI of -30.9%.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounceback in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 174-228 for -34.59 units. This ROI of -8.6% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 148-97 for +32.68 units, an ROI of +13.3%. We are currently tracking these on the VSiN Analytics Reports daily.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-‘25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 118-144 start for -20.57 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 49-66 for -17.26 units and a solid ROI of -15%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice FADE system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in ’26, and it is now 91-91 for +13.3 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a disappointing start of 99-92 for -27.92 units. In general, there have been fewer lengthy winning streaks than usual this season.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 69-77 for -26.8 units. Recent skids by the Padres and Yankees have crushed this once strong system.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 7/5)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. ATLANTA: 3.01
2. NY YANKEES: 3.13
3. BOSTON: 3.4
4. MILWAUKEE: 3.51
5. SEATTLE: 3.54
6. NY METS: 3.72
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. MINNESOTA: 5.28
29. KANSAS CITY: 5.27
28. ATHLETICS: 5.04
27. COLORADO: 5.02
26. WASHINGTON: 4.99
25. CINCINNATI: 4.7
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 1.11
2. NY YANKEES: 1.2
3. NY METS: 1.21
4. MIAMI: 1.21
5. BOSTON: 1.22
6. LA DODGERS: 1.23
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 1.56
29. MINNESOTA: 1.54
28. CINCINNATI: 1.49
27. COLORADO: 1.48
26. WASHINGTON: 1.46
25. ATHLETICS: 1.44
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.23
2. PHILADELPHIA: 10.12
3. LA DODGERS: 9.56
4. PITTSBURGH: 9.5
5. MIAMI: 9.35
6. LA ANGELS: 9.31
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7.34
29. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.71
28. TEXAS: 7.76
27. ARIZONA: 7.77
26. KANSAS CITY: 7.86
25. COLORADO: 7.91
Top 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. TAMPA BAY: 0.86
2. MILWAUKEE: 0.91
3. HOUSTON: 0.99
4. CLEVELAND: 1.01
5. BALTIMORE: 1.01
6. ST LOUIS: 1.01
Worst 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. SAN DIEGO: 2.06
29. PHILADELPHIA: 1.71
28. MIAMI: 1.68
27. ATHLETICS: 1.62
26. NY METS: 1.57
25. PITTSBURGH: 1.54
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday (6/29):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. MILWAUKEE: +13 points
2. CINCINNATI: +8
3. ST LOUIS: +7
4. HOUSTON: +6
4. COLORADO: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. SAN DIEGO: -13 points
2. MIAMI: -9
3. NY METS: -6
3. ATHLETICS: -6
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 7/6)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. LA DODGERS: 28
2. ATLANTA: 28
3. MILWAUKEE: 22
4. NY YANKEES: 21
5. TAMPA BAY: 15
6. HOUSTON: 15
7. BOSTON: 14
8. SAN DIEGO: 14
9. MIAMI: 12
10. SEATTLE: 11
11. LA ANGELS: 1
12. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 9
13. DETROIT: 8
14. TORONTO: 8
15. CLEVELAND: 8
16. ARIZONA: 7
17. NY METS: 3
18. CHICAGO CUBS: 2
19. ST LOUIS: 0
20. TEXAS: 0
21. PHILADELPHIA: -1
22. BALTIMORE: -3
23. PITTSBURGH: -6
24. SAN FRANCISCO: -10
25. ATHLETICS: -10
26. KANSAS CITY: -15
27. COLORADO: -15
28. CINCINNATI: -17
29. WASHINGTON: -20
30. MINNESOTA: -21
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
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