MLB Best Bets Today July 6
With the All-Star Break just a week away, the Monday slate is fuller than we’d normally see coming out of a holiday weekend. There are eight games on the docket and only one day game, as most teams will avoid the heat of the day to play as the sun is starting to set.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 6:
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction
Pick: Padres -124
NL West rivals clash at Petco Park with the Diamondbacks and Padres, as Brandon Pfaadt and Walker Buehler are the listed starters. Buehler had some regression signs in the profile and they all hit at once with nine runs allowed in his four innings at Wrigley Field on July 1. It was a terrible day to be a pitcher, and a Padres pitcher, specifically, as the Cubs banged out 23 runs.
This should be a bounce back spot for Buehler, though. He’s back home at Petco Park, where he’s allowed a .229/.304/.313 slash with a .282 wOBA and has a 3.13 ERA in 46 innings of work. Overall, while Buehler’s ERA is up to 4.61 with that dud last time out, he still has a 3.89 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, and a 4.10 SIERA.
On the other side, Pfaadt was just recalled from a three-week calibration in the minors. He allowed a solo homer and two other hits last time out against the Giants over 5.1 innings in his first MLB start since April 11, but he only struck out two batters with a SwStr% of just 3.0% and a Chase Rate of just 15.6%. Pfaadt has a 5.40 ERA overall with a 4.95 xERA and a 5.44 FIP In 43.1 innings of work.
The Diamondbacks have been struggling offensively most of the season and sit 25th in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days at .271. They have just a .204/.273/.336 slash in that split and have had major issues with RISP for the better part of two months now. The Padres are 11th in wOBA at .338 against RHP over the last 14 days.
It seems unlikely that Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon will be available tonight for the Padres, but hopefully Buehler can give them some length back at home.
Rockies vs. Dodgers Prediction
Pick: Over 10 (-103)
Veteran southpaws Kyle Freeland and Eric Lauer match up here in what looks like a pretty good night for offense on paper. Imagine this for Freeland. He pitches in Denver for his home games and has a 6.38 ERA over 42.1 innings. Nothing is surprising about that, right? But consider this. His road ERA is HIGHER than that at 8.31.
Freeland has allowed a .331/.364/.558 slash and a .395 wOBA on the road, which is pretty similar to his .307/.358/.563 slash and .393 wOBA at home. Freeland has allowed 34 runs in 34.2 innings away from Coors this season. His K% on the road is just 17% and hitters have been very aggressive, pummeling nine homers and eight doubles in that span. He’s allowed more homers on the road than at home, but has allowed 16 doubles at home.
The Dodgers have a .415 wOBA against LHP over the last 14 days, slashing .327/.409/.562 and have the best SLG in that split by 75 points.
Lauer has some major regression signs of his own, as he has a 2.88 ERA with a 4.03 xERA and a 5.21 FIP in five starts and one no-hit relief outing for the Dodgers. He faced Colorado in his first start with LA and will get them again here. Lauer only has 18 strikeouts out of 137 batters faced.
Incredibly, the Rockies are 13th in road wOBA at .317, slashing .244/.315/.407. Given the Coors Field Effect, that’s a very good set of numbers relative to their usual baseline.
Every primary Rockies reliever but Antonio Senzatela pitched yesterday and threw at least 20 pitches. The Dodgers will likely try to save their best arms if they can.
