Today a new week begins with a 10-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-210, 7.5)
This is the fourth and final game of a 4-game series. The Phillies (24-11) have won the first three games, winning 5-4 on Sunday Night Baseball as -110 home favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Giants (15-20) go with righty Mason Black, who is making his MLB debut, while the Phillies turn to fellow righty Zack Wheeler (3-3, 1.91 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -195 home favorite and San Francisco a +175 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down on the Phillies, steaming Philadelphia up from -195 to -210. The Phillies are receiving 90% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy one-way support from both Pros and Joes. The Phillies have the better bats, hitting .255 with 42 homers and 172 runs scored compared to the Giants hitting .238 with 32 homers and 131 runs scored. Big home favorites -200 or more are 38-14 (73%) with a 5% ROI this season. Philadelphia is 13-6 at home. San Francisco is 6-13 on the road. The Phillies are +40 in run differential. The Giants are -36. Sharps are also leaning under, as the total has fallen from 8 to 7.5. The under is receiving 44% of bets but 58% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split.
6:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates (-160, 8)
The Angels (12-22) are just 3-13 over their last sixteen games and just dropped two of three against the Guardians, losing Sunday’s series finale 4-1 as +130 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Pirates (16-19) just took two of three against the Rockies, winning 5-3 yesterday as -160 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, Los Angeles starts lefty Tyler Anderson (2-3, 2.23 ERA) and Pittsburgh counters with righty Mitch Keller (2-3, 5.18 ERA). This line opened with the Pirates listed as a -135 home favorite and the Angels a +120 road dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on Pittsburgh laying the chalk at home, steaming the Pirates up from -135 to -160. Pittsburgh is receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy support from both wiseguys and the betting public in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Interleague favorites off a win, like the Pirates here, are 45-29 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. Pittsburgh also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Pittsburgh has the better bullpen (ERA 3.76 vs 5.24). Pros have also leaned under, as the total is 8 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall down to 7.5. The Pirates are 20-14-1 (59%) to the under this season, the 6th-best under team in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (-135, 7.5) at Oakland Athletics
The Rangers (19-16) just took two of three against the Royals, winning Sunday’s series finale 3-2 in extra innings as -135 road favorites. Similarly, the Athletics (17-18) just took two of three against the Marlins but got routed 12-3 in yesterday’s finale, losing as -140 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Texas taps lefty Andrew Heaney (0-4, 5.10 ERA) and Oakland sends out fellow southpaw Alex Wood (1-2, 6.32 ERA). This line opened with the Rangers listed as a -125 road favorite and the Athletics a +115 home dog. Sharps have jumped on the Rangers laying short chalk, steaming Texas up from -125 to -135. The Rangers are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy public support but also respected sharp action. Texas has the better offense, hitting .252 with 164 runs scored vs Oakland hitting .215 with 124 runs scored. Road favorites are 104-70 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season. Texas is 6-4 against lefties this season and 32-21 (60%) against lefties since the start of last season. Texas is 9-7 on the road. Oakland is 9-10 at home. Texas also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win.
