Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-140, 7.5) at New York Yankees
The Yankees (65-51) rallied for a 3-2 win in extra innings in last night’s series opener, coming through as -125 home favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Braves (70-46) start lefty Chris Sale (12-6, 2.08 ERA) and the Yankees rebuttal with righty Gerrit Cole (5-5, 3.42 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -130 road favorite and New York a +110 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Braves to bounce back with a win, pushing Atlanta up from -130 to -140 across the market.
At DraftKings, the Braves are receiving 69% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Atlanta is receiving 56% of moneyline bets and 77% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road chalk.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor is 164-105 (61%) with an 11% ROI this season.
National League road favorites off a loss in Interleague play, like the Braves here, are 23-12 (66%) with a 13% ROI this season.
The Braves are 27-17 (61%) with a 13% ROI off a loss this season, the 4th most profitable “bounce back” team in MLB.
Atlanta offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Sale has posted a 1.65 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing only 7 earned runs in 38.2 innings pitched. He also pitches on extended rest, having last taken the mound on July 29th.
Atlanta has the better bats, hitting .250 with 570 runs scored compared to New York hitting .231 with 525 runs scored.
The Yankees are hitting just .236 against lefties, ranking 21st in MLB.
6:45 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (-140, 8.5) at Washington Nationals
The Nationals (57-61) took yesterday’s series opener 5-3, cashing as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Reds (56-59) send out righty Chase Burns (13-1, 2.35 ERA) and the Nationals go with lefty Andrew Alvarez (2-3, 3.94 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -135 road favorite and Washington a +115 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the road chalk, driving Cincinnati up from -135 to -140 or even -145 at some shops across the market.
At DraftKings, the Reds are taking in 82% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cincinnati is receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road chalk.
Saturday teams off a loss receiving line movement in their favor facing a team who failed to make the playoffs the previous season, like the Reds here, are 48-31 (61%) with an 8% ROI this season.
The Reds are 16-5 in Burns’ 21 starts this season. He is 6-0 with a 2.51 ERA on the road.
On the other hand, the Nationals are 1-4 in Alvarez’s last five starts. He has posted a 4.63 ERA at home and a 4.81 ERA at night compared to a 3.10 ERA on the road and 2.14 ERA during the day.
The Nationals are 24-34 (41%) at home, the 2nd worst home record in MLB.
Meanwhile, the Reds are 11-5 (69%) as a road favorite, the best win percentage in MLB.
The Reds are hitting .242 against lefties this season, ranking 13th in MLB.
7:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (-145, 7.5)
The Rangers (58-58) won yesterday’s series opener 2-1, taking care of business as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Orioles (56-60) hand the ball to righty Kyle Bradish (7-10, 3.79 ERA) and the Rangers counter with fellow righty Jacob deGrom (7-7, 3.96 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -135 home favorite and Baltimore a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Rangers to stay hot laying modest chalk at home, pushing Texas up from -135 to -145.
At Circa, the Rangers are only receiving 33% of moneyline bets but a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Saturday home favorites who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Rangers here, are 44-26 (63%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Texas offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
deGrom has posted a 3.04 ERA at home compared to 4.87 on the road. Meanwhile, Bradish has posted a 4.23 ERA on the road compared to 3.34 at home.
The Rangers are 31-26 at home. The Orioles are 24-30 on the road.
