Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games today.
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2:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-190, 8)
This is the third game of a four-game series. The Reds (38-44) took the opener 11-4, cashing as +120 road dogs. Then the Cardinals (42-39) bounced back with a 1-0 win yesterday, taking care of business as -125 home favorites. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Reds hand the ball to righty Carson Spiers (1-1, 3.45 ERA) and the Cardinals counter with fellow righty Sonny Gray (9-4, 2.81 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -170 home favorite and Cincinnati as a +145 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Cardinals, steaming St. Louis up from -170 to -190. The Cardinals are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. St. Louis has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Cardinals are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .269. The Reds are 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .249. Cincinnati is 18-21 on the road. St. Louis is 23-17 at home. Spiers has a 2.82 ERA at home but a 5.00 ERA on the road. Gray has only given up four earned runs in his last three starts (all Cardinals wins). He has a 1.51 ERA at home compared to 4.54 on the road.
4:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-110, 8) at New York Mets
The Mets (40-39) took last night’s Interleague series opener 7-2, cashing as a -110 home pick’em play. In today’s rematch, the Astros (40-41) start lefty Framber Valdez (6-5, 3.68 ERA) and the Mets rebuttal with righty Tylor Megill (2-4, 4.81 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -120 road favorite and New York a +100 home dog. The public is leaning on the Astros to bounce back with a win. However, despite receiving 56% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Houston fall from -120 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Mets, as the line is moving in favor of New York (+100 to -110). Essentially, smart money has gotten down on the Mets and driven this line down to roughly a pick’em. New York is 16-4 over their last 20 games. The Mets are hitting .318 over their last ten games, outscoring their opponents by 39 runs. Megill has a 2.61 ERA at home compared to 8.31 on the road. The Mets are hitting .263 against lefties this season, ranking 8th-best in MLB. Pros also seem to be leaning over, as the total is 8 with the over juiced to -115. The over is receiving 76% of bets and 85% of dollars. The forecast calls for 15 MPH winds blowing out at Citi Field.
