Sunday Night MLB: Mariners vs. Astros
For the second week in a row, the Astros take center stage on Sunday Night Baseball on NBC. This time, instead of facing an NL West opponent, they will face an AL West opponent in a big division matchup with the Mariners. This is a big game, as it is the rubber match of the series, with Seattle entering the day five games back of the Astros, who also had a two-game lead over the Rangers. We’ll see if this Mariners vs. Astros game follows suit in regards to the first two in the series, as those had 17 and 15 runs, so they were high-scoring affairs.
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See player prop projections for Mariners vs. Astros from OptaAI.
How to Watch Mariners vs. Astros
Where: NBC
When: Sunday August 16, 7:20 p.m. ET
Mariners vs. Astros MLB Odds
Houston Astros -118 // Seattle Mariners +110
Total: 8 (-105/-114)
Mariners vs. Astros Prediction
Pick: Astros -118
We’ve got a top-tier pitching matchup here, as Bryan Woo goes for the visitors and Hunter Brown toes the rubber for the hosts. Woo is having a bit of a down year from an ERA standpoint, as sequencing luck has not been on his side with a 65% LOB%. He has a 4.15 ERA, but a 3.59 xERA and a 3.14 FIP, suggesting that better fortunes are on the horizon. However, his .290 BABIP against is also a byproduct of a career-worst 43.5% Hard Hit%. Last season, with a 41.8% HH% against, he only had a .238 BABIP against, so it seems like things are leveling off a bit.
Not surprisingly, it has been the road that has been unkind to Woo. In the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park, Woo has a 1.96 ERA over 64.1 innings of work with a .164/.215/.243 slash against. Away from Seattle, however, he has a 6.22 ERA in 68 innings with a .292/.334/.466 slash against. He’s given up nine of 13 homers and 15 of 21 doubles on the road, plus all three triples he has surrendered. He’s given up 15 runs on 37 hits at home and 50 runs on 81 hits on the road.
However, Woo is coming off of five shutout innings at Yankee Stadium earlier on this road trip back on August 11. That was on the heels of seven shutout frames against the Tigers at home on August 5. Prior to that, he had allowed 13 runs on 20 hits in 16 innings, including five runs apiece in roadies at the Dodgers and Rangers.
Brown made two starts and then missed two-and-a-half months, returning on June 16. Since coming back, Brown sports a 4.25 ERA with a 4.08 xERA and a 5.03 FIP over his 53 innings of work across 10 starts. He’s struck out 50 and walked 29, which is why his FIP is as high as it is. He’s only allowed eight homers, but that is a pretty high number given a 56.7% GB%. His contact management numbers do suggest better times ahead with a 37.1% HH% and a 7.7% Barrel% in that span. He’s just not getting a lot of chases with a 26.8% Chase Rate over those 10 starts.
But, the Mariners have the fourth-highest Chase Rate in the second half at 33.9%, so perhaps Brown will get some more swings on pitches that aren’t in the zone. That said, he just faced the Giants, who have the eighth-highest Chase Rate in the second half and he only had a 20.9% O-Swing%, the second-lowest in this span of 10 starts.
Houston does appear to have a pretty big offensive advantage here. Against righties in the second half, Houston is eighth in wOBA at .330 and Seattle is 25th at .295. The Astros own a .260/.334/.425 slash, while the Mariners have a .229/.301/.367 mark. Even if we adjust for park factor and run environment, the Astros have been 19% better against RHP in the second half per wRC+.
From a reliever standpoint, both teams are on fairly equal footing here, but there is a slight edge to Houston. Mariners closer Andres Munoz would be working for a third time in four days, while Jose Ferrer and Eduard Bazardo would be working for the fourth time in six days, with Ferrer on a back-to-back if called upon. On the Astros side, they used five relievers on Friday and seven on Wednesday, but Bryan King was the only noteworthy arm called upon yesterday, as Ronel Blanco ate some mop-up innings.
Mariners vs. Astros Prediction
With Woo’s road struggles, which have to be mental at this point, and Seattle’s heightened Chase Rate that should work in Brown’s favor, I have to side with the favorites here. Dating back to May 24, Woo has allowed 0, 5, 5, 4, 5, 7, 5, and 4 runs in his road starts. If the Astros can give Brown that sort of support and turn it over to a rested bullpen, they should be in good shape.
Mariners vs. Astros Player Props
Hunter Brown Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-102)
This is a chance to push the Mariners another game back in the standings and I would expect Joe Espada to manage it pretty aggressively with a rested bullpen and an off day tomorrow. Brown has failed to complete six innings six times out of his 10 starts since coming back and the high walk rate certainly has a lot to do with it. We’ll see if the Mariners have some extended plate appearances and deep counts in this one today. They have not seen him yet this season, but have seen him a lot in previous seasons, so they should have pretty accurate scouting reports and pitch tendencies.
