Today we wrap up the unofficial first half of the MLB regular season with a 15 game slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles (-150, 9.5)
The Orioles (45-51) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-3 as -160 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 6-1 as -165 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Royals (38-58) hand the ball to righty Seth Lugo (3-6, 4.56 ERA) and the Orioles counter with fellow righty Shane Baz (4-9, 4.21 ERA).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -140 home favorite and Kansas City a +120 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Orioles to complete the sweep, steaming Baltimore up from -140 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Orioles were taking in 77% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Baltimore is taking in 43% of moneyline bets and 47% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Sunday home favorites off a win facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Orioles here, are 42-21 (67%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Home favorites with a below .500 record off a win who missed the playoffs the previous season facing another below .500 team who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 33-20 (62%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Lugo has struggled on the mound as of late, allowing 16 earned runs over 15.1 innings pitched in his last three starts (9.54 ERA). He has posted a 5.48 ERA on the road (compared to 3.83 at home) and a 5.82 ERA in day games (compared to 3.92 at night).
The Orioles are 27-25 (52%) at home. Meanwhile, the Royals are 17-32 (35%) on the road, the 3rd worst road team in MLB.
1:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays (-140, 7.5)
The Rays (56-37) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 7-2 as -130 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 6-1 as a -110 home pick’em.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Mariners (47-49) start righty Emerson Hancock (6-4, 3.23 ERA) and the Rays go with lefty Ian Seymour (6-1, 4.11 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -125 home favorite and Seattle a +105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Rays to finish off the sweep laying short home chalk, driving Tampa Bay up from -125 to -140.
At DraftKings, Tampa Bay is receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Rays are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home team.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the Rays here, are 95-66 (59%) with a 4% ROI this season.
Tampa Bay offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays have the edge offensively, hitting .260 with 423 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .229 with 384 runs scored.
Seymour has posted a 3.05 ERA at home compared to 5.87 on the road. The Rays are 5-1 in his last six starts.
Tampa Bay is 35-14 (71%) at home and 25-8 (76%) as a home favorite, both of which are the best records in MLB.
On the other hand, Seattle is 20-29 (41%) on the road, the 8th worst road record in MLB.
2:10 p.m. ET: Athletics at Chicago White Sox (-130, 8.5)
The White Sox (49-45) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, dominating the opener 14-1 as -185 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 1-0 as -130 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Athletics (41-54) start righty J.T. Ginn (7-5, 3.10 ERA) and the White Sox tap lefty Noah Schultz (2-6, 6.00 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -115 home favorite and the Athletics a -105 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the White Sox to post another victory and complete the sweep, steaming Chicago up from -115 to -130.
Pros have also sided with Chicago on the run-line (-1.5 at +155), as the White Sox are receiving 61% of spread bets and 66% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the White Sox here, are 95-66 (59%) with a 4% ROI this season.
Home favorites -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 112-71 (61%) with an 11% ROI. Sunday home favorites off a win facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 42-21 (67%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Chicago is hitting .249 at home (13th in MLB) while the Athletics are hitting .224 on the road (28th).
The White Sox have the better bullpen, sporting a 3.96 ERA (13th in MLB) compared to 5.23 for the Athletics (29th).
Chicago is 30-17 (64%) at home this season, the 2nd best home team in MLB. The Athletics are 22-26 (46%) on the road.
