Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 7 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:05 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals (-135, 9.5)
The Rockies (52-81) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 3-1 as +145 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 13-1 as +120 road dogs.
In this early afternoon series finale, the Rockies start righty Gabriel Hughes (0-5, 6.54 ERA) and the Nationals (62-73) rebuttal with fellow righty Jake Irvin (2-8, 5.82 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -115 home favorite and Colorado a -105 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Nationals to earn a victory and avoid the sweep, steaming Washington up from -115 to -135, with some shops touching as high as -140.
At Circa, the Nationals are only receiving 33% of moneyline bets but a whopping 85% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy contrarian split in their favor from the Vegas pros.
Washington offers betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Hughes has gotten roughed up in four August starts (10.80 ERA), allowing 22 earned runs in 18.1 innings pitched. He has posted a 9.47 ERA on the road compared to 4.18 ERA at home.
The Rockies have gone 24-41 (37%) on the road, the 4th worst road record in MLB.
7:05 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at New York Yankees (-155, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Astros (66-67) won the opener 9-7, coming through as +125 road dogs. Then the Yankees (75-57) bounced back with a 9-3 win yesterday, taking care of business as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Astros hand the ball to Hayden Wesneski (3-1, 4.23 ERA) and the Yankees turn to fellow righty Gerrit Cole (7-6, 3.11 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -150 home favorite and Houston a +130 road dog.
Sharps have quietly laid the wood with the Yankees to earn a win and take the series, pushing New York up from -150 to -155, with some shops touching as high as -160.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
New York offers correlative betting value as a moderate-to-high favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Cole has pitched well in four August starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 24.2 innings pitched (1.82 ERA). New York is 4-1 in his last five starts.
On the other hand, Wesneski has posted a 4.09 ERA in four August starts, giving up 10 earned runs in 22 innings pitched.
The Yankees have the better bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 3.04 (2nd in MLB) compared to 4.13 for the Astros (17th).
7:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves (-115, 6.5)
The Braves (78-55) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 4-3 as +140 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 6-5 as +110 home dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Dodgers (80-53) send out righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-7, 2.61 ERA) and the Braves counter with lefty Chris Sale (12-9, 2.20 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds, while a few books opened the Dodgers a slight -115 road favorite and the Braves a short -105 home dog.
The Gambler’s Fallacy-minded public says there’s no way the mighty Dodgers get swept and 69% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are backing Los Angeles at a virtual coin-flip price.
However, despite the public pounding Los Angeles to avoid the sweep we’ve seen the line tick up a bit in favor of the Braves (-105 or -110 to -115 or even -120 at some shops).
This signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement in favor of Atlanta to earn another win and complete the sweep.
The Braves are the top “bet against the public” play of the night as Atlanta is receiving less than one-third of tickets in the most heavily bet game of the night.
At Circa, Atlanta is only receiving 25% of moneyline bets but a massive 91% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the home team.
Sale is 7-3 with a 1.65 ERA at home compared to 5-6 with a 2.71 ERA on the road.
Atlanta has the edge in the bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA 3.43 (4th) compared to 3.97 for Los Angeles (13th).
