MLB Best Bets Today August 27
More than half of the league is idle today, as we have seven games, including a couple of getaway day lunchtime specials. Five games are at night, including the conclusion of the Astros vs. Yankees, Brewers vs. Mets, and Dodgers vs. Braves series. That LA/Atlanta series has been some outstanding viewing and who knows if we’re watching a NLCS preview or not. Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Chris Sale is a hell of a way to finish it off, but we also get NL Cy Young odds-on favorite Jacob Misiorowski on the bump as well. Light on quantity, but high on quality today.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 27:
Royals vs. Blue Jays Prediction
Pick: Blue Jays 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-145); 1st 5 Over 4.5 Runs (-110)
Fading Noah Cameron didn’t work for me last time, but I’m going to get right back on that horse and give it a shot again. I think there are a variety of regression signs building up for him, but let’s start with this one. Out of 177 batters faced in the second half, Cameron has gone 1-0 on 74 of them. Despite being ahead in the count at the outset, opposing batters are only hitting .161/.284/.194 with two doubles and no home runs. League-wide starting with a 1-0 count, hitters are slashing .254/.382/.430 for the season.
Cameron was limited to 85 pitches last time out after throwing 101+ in his previous three starts, including 115 in his complete game effort on August 16. But, in the second half, his Ball% is 37%, so it’s not like he’s been staggeringly efficient with his pitches. He has a 20.9% K% with a 7.9% BB%, so there’s some give and take there, but his .149 BA and .185 BABIP just don’t strike me as sustainable. He’s also seen a huge uptick in ground balls in the second half paired with an increased Pull%. That normally doesn’t lead to better success on balls in play. His 2.1% HR/FB% will be on the rise as well.
So, that’s the case against Cameron. The Blue Jays haven’t been very good against LHP this month, but they do put a ton of balls in play and the Rogers Centre carpet often yields a higher batting average on grounders than most venues.
On the other side, Spencer Arrighetti gave up three runs on three hits in 3.1 innings in his Blue Jays debut six days ago. He made a couple of rehab starts at Triple-A after being acquired from the Astros and looked pretty decent in those, but getting MLB hitters out has been a chore. He has a 4.73 ERA with a 5.11 xERA and a 5.11 FIP on the season over 91.1 innings.
The Royals have been playing at a very high level lately and sit 10th in wRC+ and ninth in wOBA against RHP in the month of August. Even if the Blue Jays opt to put an opener in front of Arrighetti, it doesn’t really change my view of him here.
