Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
6:45 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals (-140, 8.5)
The Nationals (38-35) won last night’s Interleague series opener 7-3, taking care of business as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Royals (29-44) hand the ball to righty Michael Wacha (4-5, 3.58 ERA) and the Nationals counter with lefty Foster Griffin (7-2, 3.46 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -125 home favorite and Kansas City a +105 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Nationals laying short chalk at home, steaming Washington up from -125 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Nationals are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Washington is taking in 71% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the Nats here, are 70-43 (62%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Interleague home favorites off a win priced -150 or less receiving line movement in their favor are 77-38 (67%) with a 19% ROI since 2025.
Washington has a sizable edge at the plate, posting a .422 slugging percentage with 399 runs scored compared to Kansas City posting a .377 slugging percentage with only 291 runs scored.
Wacha has struggled as of late, posting a 7.33 ERA in his last three starts. Kansas City is 0-6 in his last six starts and 2-9 in his last 11 starts. He has posted a 4.43 ERA on the road compared to 2.85 at home.
On the other hand, Griffin has posted a 1.64 ERA in two June starts. Washington is 10-4 in his 14 starts overall.
7:15 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves (-170, 9)
The Giants (29-43) just dropped two of three against the Cubs but avoided the sweep, winning the series finale 5-1 as -135 home favorites. Similarly, the Braves (46-25) just lost two of three against the Mets, dropping the series finale 8-1 as +110 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Giants send out righty Adrian Houser (2-6, 5.54 ERA) and the Braves go with fellow righty Grant Holmes (4-2, 4.05 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -150 home favorite and San Francisco a +130 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the relatively expensive price and have laid the wood with the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -150 to -170.
At DraftKings, the Braves are receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. At Circa, Atlanta is taking in 80% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Braves here, are 19-8 (70%) with a 20% ROI this season.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite is 48-27 (64%) with a 9% ROI this season.
The Braves are 18-6 (75%) with a 23% ROI off a loss this season, the 3rd most profitable bounce back team in MLB.
Atlanta is 9-3 in Holmes’s last 12 starts. He has posted a 3.75 ERA at home compared to 4.40 on the road.
On the other hand, Houser has posted a 6.69 ERA in his last three starts. He has posted a 7.62 ERA in night games compared to 3.93 during the day.
The Braves are 22-11 at home. The Giants are 15-23 on the road.
7:45 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals (-120, 8)
The Cardinals (39-31) won last night’s series opener 3-0, cashing as -160 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Padres (37-34) tap righty Michael King (4-5, 3.46 ERA) and the Cardinals rebuttal with fellow righty Andre Pallante (7-4, 3.88 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have sided with the Cardinals at a coin-flip price at home, driving St. Louis up from -110 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are receiving 57% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, St. Louis is taking in 73% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home team, especially the sharps in the desert.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor is 92-57 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the Cardinals tonight, are 70-43 (62%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites -140 or less are 200-146 (58%) with a 4% ROI this season.
St. Louis has the better bats, hitting .246 with a .323 OBP and 322 runs scored compared to San Diego hitting only .217 with a .291 OBP and 272 runs scored.
Pallante has posted a 2.31 ERA in two June starts. St. Louis is 5-1 in his last six starts. He is 6-1 with a 3.33 ERA at night compared to 1-3 with a 4.94 ERA during the day.
Meanwhile, King has posted a 6.52 ERA in his last four starts. San Diego is 3-6 in his last nine starts overall.
