Today we kick off the month of September with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
6:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-135, 9) at Cincinnati Reds
The Padres (73-65) took last night’s series opener 5-0, coming through as -145 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Padres start righty Randy Vasquez (10-6, 4.02 ERA) and the Reds (65-73) go with lefty Nick Lodolo (3-3, 5.24 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -125 road favorite and Cincinnati a +105 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Padres to stay hot laying short chalk, pushing San Diego up from -125 to -135, with some shops inching above -140.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars, a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor, like the Padres here, are 94-59 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season.
The Padres have also cleaned up against below .500 teams, going 41-25 (62%) with a 16% ROI, the best in MLB.
San Diego has the better offense, hitting .238 with a .315 OBP and 588 runs scored compared to Cincinnati hitting .228 with a .307 OBP and 570 runs scored.
Vasquez pitched well in five August starts, allowing only 8 earned runs in 28 innings pitched (2.57 ERA). He has been better on the road (3.86 ERA) than at home (4.18 ERA).
Meanwhile, Lodolo got roughed up in four August starts, giving up 14 earned runs in 16.1 innings pitched (7.71 ERA). He has posted a 5.62 ERA at night compared to 4.82 during the day.
The Padres have a notable edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.48 (5th best in MLB) compared to 4.69 for the Reds (25th).
7:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals (-120, 9.5)
The Marlins (69-69) just dropped three of four against the Nationals, losing the series finale 6-3 as -115 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Royals (62-76) just took two of three against the Guardians but failed to complete the sweep, losing the series finale 11-1 as +165 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Marlins go with righty Tyler Phillips (3-6, 3.59 ERA) and the Royals send out fellow righty Randy Dobnak (2-2, 1.92 ERA).
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a short -110 home favorite and Miami a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Royals at a cheap chalk price at home, driving Kansas City up from -110 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Royals are receiving 66% of moneyline bets and a hefty 88% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also heavy wiseguy action in their favor.
Home favorites priced -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Royals here, are 155-101 (61%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Dobnak has allowed 1 earned run or less in 7 of his 10 starts this season.
Conversely, the Marlins are 0-4 in Phillips’s last four starts. He has posted a 5.83 ERA on the road compared to 2.12 at home.
Kansas City also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Royals were off yesterday while the Marlins played the Nationals in the nation’s capital and now travel to the midwest.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off facing an opponent who played the previous day are 41-18 (70%) with an 18% ROI this season.
The Royals are 36-30 at home this season. The Marlins are 27-42 on the road, the 6th worst road record in MLB.
10:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers (-190, 8.5)
The Cardinals (68-70) just dropped two of three against the Pirates, losing the series finale 5-4 as +110 home dogs. On the other hand, the Dodgers (82-55) just took two of three against the Tigers, winning the series finale 6-1 as -150 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cardinals hand the ball to righty Michael McGreevy (5-9, 3.86 ERA) and the Dodgers counter with lefty Eric Lauer (8-6, 4.78 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -175 home favorite and St. Louis a +155 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -175 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are receiving 90% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Los Angeles is taking in only 71% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe split in favor of the home chalk, especially the wiseguys in Vegas.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite has gone 80-47 (63%) with a 6% ROI this season.
When priced -200 or less facing a below .500 opponent, Los Angeles has gone 23-6 (80%) with a 28% ROI this season.
Los Angeles has the more potent bats, hitting .258 with a .335 OBP and 670 runs scored compared to St. Louis hitting .240 with a .315 OBP and 610 runs scored.
Lauer is 7-2 with a 3.51 ERA in night games compared to 1-4 with a 7.84 ERA in day games. Meanwhile, McGreevy has gone 3-7 with a 4.71 ERA in night games compared to 2-2 with a 2.81 ERA in day games.
