Today we have a loaded slate of midweek MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays (-175, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Mets (62-77) won the opener 3-2, hanging on as +165 road dogs. Then the Rays (83-55) bounced back with a 6-2 in yesterday, taking care of business as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Mets hand the ball to righty Justin Hagenman, who is making his 2026 debut after going 0-1 with a 4.56 ERA in nine appearances last year. Meanwhile, the Rays counter with fellow righty Griffin Jax (6-9, 3.63 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -160 home favorite and New York a +140 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Rays to earn a win and take the series, steaming Tampa Bay up from -160 to -175.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 74% of moneyline bets and 77% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tampa Bay is taking in 88% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Tampa Bay offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays 56-35 (62%) with an 11% ROI against below .500 teams this season, the 2nd best mark in MLB. If also coming off a win, they improve to 38-18 (68%) with a 23% ROI this season.
When favored and receiving line movement in their direction, the Rays are 43-24 (64%) with a 10% ROI this season, the best mark in MLB.
Tampa Bay has the better bats, hitting .261 with a .329 OBP and 624 runs scored compared to New York hitting .235 with a .305 OBP and 567 runs scored.
The Rays are 47-24 at home, the 2nd best home record in MLB. The Mets are 30-38 on the road.
8:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros (-140, 8.5)
This is the third game of a four-game series.
The Astros (70-69) won the opener 6-3, cashing as -130 home favorites. Then the White Sox (73-65) posted a 5-1 win yesterday, coming through as a -115 road favorite.
In tonight’s rematch, the White Sox send out righty Davis Martin (9-6, 4.32 ERA) and the Astros tap fellow righty Hayden Wesneski (4-1, 3.86 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -130 home favorite and Chicago a +110 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Astros laying modest chalk at home, pushing Houston up from -130 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Astros are receiving 66% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action.
Home favorites priced -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Astros here, are 156-102 (61%) with a 10% ROI this season. If they’re also coming off a loss, these teams improve to 78-43 (65%) with a 17% ROI this season.
The Astros are 39-29 (57%) with a 15% ROI off a loss this season, the 2nd most profitable “bounce back” team in MLB.
Houston is 5-1 in Wesneski’s six starts this season. He has allowed 3 earned runs or less in five of his six starts overall.
Meanwhile, Martin is returning from the Injured List and has posted a 5.32 ERA on the road compared to 3.20 at home.
9:38 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-165, 7) at Los Angeles Angels
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Angels (53-86) dominated the opener 10-1, cruising as +110 home dogs. Then the Yankees (79-60) got back on track yesterday with a 7-3 victory, taking care of business as -195 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Yankees start righty Cam Schlittler (12-6, 2.09 ERA) and the Angels trot out lefty Reid Detmers (4-8, 3.54 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -160 road favorite and Los Angeles a +140 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Yankees to earn a win and take the series, pushing New York up from -160 to -165 and even as high as -170 at some shops across the market.
At DraftKings, New York is taking in 91% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in their favor.
New York offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a super low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Yankees here, are 81-45 (64%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Schlittler is 8-2 with a 1.14 ERA on the road this season.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles is just 1-9 in Detmers’ last ten starts.
New York has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.08 (1st in MLB) compared to 4.33 for Los Angeles (21st).
The Yankees are hitting .243 against lefties (12th in MLB) while the Angels are hitting .236 against righties (24th).
New York is 42-29 on the road, the 2nd best road record in MLB. Los Angeles is 30-43 at home, the 2nd worst home record in MLB.
