Tuley’s Takes: 2026 MLB World Series:
We’re as stunned as everyone else here in the Tuley’s Takes home office that the Dodgers aren’t in the World Series going for a three-peat, but it’s pretty exciting to have a first-time champion as the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays have played in the World Series before but never won it.
The Brewers had the best record in the regular season at 103-59, so they get home-field advantage, though that only really matters in the 2-3-2 format if the series goes the full seven games (though there is an advantage of playing the first two games at home, if you win both, that is). Oddsmakers opened the Brewers as pretty substantial -165 series favorites, but bettors have driven the price up to -185 as of Thursday night.
As for yours truly, Dave Tuley, I haven’t had the best baseball postseason as favorites have gone 21-14 overall, so live dogs have been hard to find. In the ALCS, I won Game 1 with the Guardians +145 at the Rays, but they lost the series 4-2. In the NLCS, I lost the opener with the Dodgers as short dogs in Game 1, but at least flipped to the Brewers +135 as road underdogs in Game 3 but lost overall on both series.
But now the World Series starts Friday night, and we will try to end the baseball season on a high note (and hopefully there’s no lockout in the spring or a delay to the 2027 season).
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Series price: Brewers -185 / Rays +160
Game 1 odds: Brewers -175 / Rays +162, Over/Under 6.5 o-115
As I wrote in the intro, the Brewers had MLB’s best regular-season record and have been even more impressive, beating the Padres 3-1 in the NLDS and sweeping the two-time defending champion Dodgers 4-0 in the NLCS. They’re rightfully favored, but I do think they’re priced too high, especially with the 20-cent upward move since the matchup was set. So, as if you haven’t guessed by now, I see value in the Rays as +160 underdogs to win the Series.
The AL was down this year, but while everyone seemed to want to crown the Yankees as the champs or were talking about the Cinderella story of the White Sox, the Rays finished 4.5 games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East and a whopping 13 games ahead of the second-best AL division winner, the Guardians. The Rays swept the Yankees 3-0 in the ALDS while only favored in Game 1 and then beat the Guardians 4-2 in the ALCS, so they’re 7-2 so far in the playoffs compared to the Brewers at 7-1.
And by most other comparisons, this is a pretty even matchup as well. I’m not a stats or analytics guy (since the stats are usually in favor of the favorite, right?), but my VSiN colleague Adam Burke wrote in this series preview: “This is strength on strength in that regard. Rays pitchers didn’t walk batters and the Brewers are looking to walk. Rays hitters didn’t strike out and the Brewers are looking for punchouts, as they led the league with a 25.8% K%. The Rays were 14th at 22.3%. Milwaukee had the third-highest SwStr% (swinging strike percentage) as a staff, but the Rays offense had the lowest SwStr% at just 8.6%. Interestingly, despite the higher K% as a group, the Brewers only had a 9.6% SwStr% offensively.” The bullpens are also both very strong with no real edge.
It all comes down to the fact that the series odds should be closer to pick ’em, so I’m betting the Rays +160.
As for the individual games, I’m going to be on the Rays in any games as underdogs, starting with Game 1. Milwaukee, of course, is starting presumptive Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski, but the Rays have also been able to set their rotation and will start Nick Martinez. The Brewers have also been bet up in Game 1 from -165 to -175, but we’ll fade that move with the Rays +162 (the price at Circa Sports as of late Thursday night, though +165 at the South Point). Misiorowski hasn’t even been that dominant in the playoffs, and the Rays can make contact and play some small-ball.
I feel the same way in Game 2 vs. NLCS MVP Freddy Peralta, as the Rays should be live dogs. Just like most teams playing the first two games on the road, I’m hoping for a split as it will be profitable – and if they can win both that’s a bonus before the series moves to Tampa.
Since I do expect this series to go at least six games, I might flip to the Brewers as road dogs, but that might not even be the case (and I’m sure Miz will be a road favorite in Game 4 or 5, in which case I’d still be on the Rays as home dogs).
I’ll probably pass on the totals as I prefer Unders in playoff baseball, though Overs have led 17-16-3 so far (but note that Overs were 7-1-1 in the wild-card round, so Unders have gone 15-10-2 the last two rounds as the better teams have advanced. But I’m not crazy about going Under 6.5 (though it did open at 6).
World Series Best Bets: Rays +160 in series, plus Rays +162 or better in Game 1 and any game as underdogs; possibly flipping to Brewers as road dogs; Under if any total line at 7.5 runs or higher.
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