Tuley’s Takes: MLB Wild Card Series Best Bets:
I believe all my readers know football season is our favorite time of year in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but the excitement increases even more when we start the MLB postseason, which starts in September this year (plus horse racing’s Breeders’ Cup at the end of next month).
And don’t get me started on how my time-management skills were stretched to their limits when the World Series of Poker held the final table of the Main Event – called the November Nine – from 2008 to 2016 when I was at Daily Racing Form and then ESPN.com.
But I digress.
Postseason baseball has always been a love of mine, even growing up as a die-hard Cubs fan in the Chicago suburbs in the 1970s and early ‘80s when that meant watching teams from other cities battle it out in the league championship series and Fall Classic until the Cubs made the postseason in 1984. That year, the Cubbies won the first two games at home against the Padres (who, ironically, they face in the wild-card round this week in a rematch from last year) and then lost the last three games in San Diego to break my little heart (OK, I was 18 at the time, but it still hurt!). I still remember Kmart selling a Cubs-Tigers World Series T-shirt, but I figured I could get one later.
Sorry, I digress again. Baseball makes one nostalgic.
The current wild-card format has the top two division champs in each league getting a bye, and the third division champ and the top wild-card teams hosting the last two wild-cards in best-of-three series that run Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (if necessary), with the divisional round starting its best-of-five series on Saturday with the four winning wild-cards at the four bye teams.
Let’s give my “dog or pass” takes on each of the four wild-card matchups and then I’ll return on Friday with my divisional takes (all odds from Circa Sports as of Monday afternoon, Sept. 28). Basically, I see live dogs in both NL series and the AL as being chalky.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Series price: Braves -130/Phillies +110
Game 1 odds: Braves -187/Phillies +173, Over/Under 6.5 o-120
For the longest time, it looked like the Phillies would be facing the Cubs as the top two NL wild-card teams if they weren’t able to catch the Braves in the NL East. But they went into a major slump, were passed by the Padres, and they had to hold off the Diamondbacks, who they led by 6.5 games at the start of the month, for the final NL wild-card spot.
As of Sunday, the Phillies were in danger of not making the playoffs in what would have been an all-time collapse as they were 8-15 (.381) in September before beating the Rays 7-3 on the season’s final day to punch their ticket and send the Diamondbacks golfing.
Longtime readers of mine will recognize the Phillies as a “swagger” play after their recent woes – and a four-game losing streak before the final day – and getting their swagger back, as I think they’ll return to better form with a veteran team that hits for power and also works counts and draws walks (though they will miss Luis Arraez, out with a sprained left ankle).
Granted, they have to go on the road against their divisional rival, and the Braves went 9-4 in the season series. The Braves also have Chris Sale going in Game 1, which is why we have a much higher line in the opener than the series price; however, the Phillies have the better pitcher going in Game 2 with Cristopher Sanchez vs. Tyler Mahle and then, assuming they at least split the first two games, have their ace in the hole, Zack Wheeler (14-5, 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), who they had to use Sunday to get in the postseason.
MLB Wild-Card Best Bet: Phillies +110 to win series and +173 in Game 1, plus any games as underdogs.
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
Series price: Astros -145/White Sox +125
Game 1 odds: Astros -130/White Sox +110, Over/Under 8 o-115
I wasn’t high on either team heading into the season. The White Sox have had an impressive turnaround from an all-time bad 41-121 record in 2024 to 84-78 this season and making the playoffs. Astros Under 84.5 Wins was one of my Best Bets before the season, and I cashed that as they went just 81-81, but that was still enough to win the AL West as they set the record for the worst record (I sound like a broken record) for a playoff team in a full 162-game season.
While the White Sox were the surprise team of the season, neither team is seen as a legitimate World Series contender, so they’re kinda tempting as an underdog, but I just can’t pull the trigger. I mean, the Astros are certainly a few steps below how good they were the last decade and had a losing home record at 39-42, but the Sox are also sub-.500 on the road at 36-45, so I don’t trust them to take advantage.
In addition, the Astros won the season series 5-2, including 3-1 a month ago in Houston from Aug. 31-Sept. 3, and they have a huge edge in playoff experience with their holdovers from that era.
MLB Wild-Card Best Bet: Pass.
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Series price: Yankees -150/Red Sox +130
Game 1 odds: Yankees -135/Red Sox +115, Over/Under 6.5 u-120
This is the other divisional matchup with both finishing behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East and renewing one of the longest-running rivalries in baseball. The Yankees have been on pace to make the playoffs all year, though the Rays pulled away to win the division by 4.5 games as the AL’s top seed, while the Red Sox were more doubtful but benefited from the overall weak junior circuit, as few teams made a run after the White Sox.
The Yankees have the edge on offense, especially if Aaron Judge returns like he wants to, and were also playing better down the stretch without him at 15-8 in September while the Red Sox coasted into the playoffs at 12-12. The pitching staffs are pretty even, but in a short series I give the edge to likely Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler, Max Fried and Gerrit Cole.
If Judge doesn’t return, maybe I would take a flier on the Red Sox just because the Yankees might have a letdown, though I’m guessing the price would drop. And it would also go against how I usually love teams in the “fallen star” role, as the rest of the team usually picks up the slack (though those are usually underdogs).
MLB Wild-Card Best Bet: Pass
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Series price: Padres -125/Cubs +105
Game 1 odds: Padres -125/Cubs +112, Over/Under 7 o-115
Here’s the series I’ve been waiting for. In addition to cashing the Cubs Over 88.5 Wins (though they needed to win a meaningless game on Sunday to get to 89 for me!), I also have them at 9-1 to win the National League and 18-1 to win the World Series from back in March. Of course, that’s not really betting value as they’re right around the same prices now (9-1 and 18-1), as I was certainly hoping/expecting them to win the NL Central and have a bye this round.
As alluded to in the intro, the Cubs won the NL wild-card series last year 2-1 at Wrigley Field, which is where they certainly wanted to be playing this but went 11-13 in September while the Padres went 18-6 to pass them for home-field advantage this time.
Regardless, I still believe this Cubs’ offense has the power and the speed to be the best in the National League (“Go Cubs Go” reference in case you didn’t catch that), though the pitching (both starting and relief) has been the Achilles’ heel all season. Having said that, the starting pitching looks pretty even with the Chicago’s Matthew Boyd, Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes vs. San Diego’s Michael King, Nick Pivetta and Robbie Ray, but the Padres do have a big edge in the bullpen, which is concerning, so I wouldn’t talk anyone out of the Cubs First Five wagers to shorten the games before it gets to the relief pitchers.
MLB Wild-Card Best Bet: Cubs +112 in series and +112 in Game 1 and any game as underdogs.
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