MLB Best Bets Today September 29
There is nothing like the Major League Baseball postseason. Every single pitch has the chance to swing the game and the drama and intensity just get higher and higher the deeper a team gets into October. It is simultaneously terrifying and intoxicating if your team is participating. If your team isn’t, well, you can just enjoy the beauty of the sport in a pressure-packed environment.
Throughout the playoffs, I’ll look at every game on the schedule, even if I don’t have any bets. I’ll typically do this on the morning of the games, trying to achieve as much lead time as possible. Bullpen usage is critically important in the postseason, so I’d be doing a major disservice to do anything before the games are finished and that usually means writing up my thoughts in the morning.
Here we go. Game 1 across all four Wild Card series.
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Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 29:
Phillies vs. Braves (-205, 6.5)
2 p.m. ET
Phillies-Braves Series Preview
Right away, we can see the difference between clinching on the final day of the regular season and having your affairs in order with time to spare. The Braves are a substantial favorite in this game because they can send out ace Chris Sale, while the Phillies turn to Jesus Luzardo, whose one inning on Sunday in a mop-up appearance is the only inning he’s thrown since September 7.
Luzardo fanned 12 over a complete game two-hitter against the Braves in that September 7 start and then hit the IL, going 20 days between appearances. He only threw four pitches in that appearance on Sunday in the clincher against the Rays, so it’s not like he got to go deep into his bag or get stretched out. Luzardo has been termed an opener by manager Don Mattingly, so we’ll see if that legitimately means an inning or maybe he can push a little farther than that. He did not make any minor league appearances en route to returning.
Luzardo was outstanding with a 2.86 ERA, 2.83 xERA, and a 2.78 FIP over 179.2 innings of work, but it’s absolutely fair to wonder how sharp he will be here. The expectation is that Andrew Painter will work in some kind of bulk capacity after Luzardo. Whether that means he follows him right away or the team has to get some leverage outs before giving him a clean slate remains to be seen. Painter finished the regular season with a 5.40 ERA, 4.40 xERA, and a 4.67 FIP over 126.2 innings pitched, but was much better after he returned to the Majors on July 31. Painter had a 3.65 ERA with a 3.56 xERA and a 3.78 FIP over 61.2 innings across those 11 starts.
The plan in place for Atlanta is far simpler, as Sale, who finished the regular season with a 2.16 ERA, 2.97 xERA, and a 2.29 FIP will go as long as he can and as long as he’s effective. Sale does own a 6.35 ERA over 34 career playoff innings, but I don’t put a lot of stock in those small sample sizes. He has given up seven homers, but also has 47 strikeouts, so the stuff has been good, but he’s given up a few long balls. Also, he hasn’t pitched in the postseason since 2021.
The Phillies slashed .244/.311/.397 against LHP in September. The Braves were actually the league’s worst offense against southpaws in the final month of the regular season, so it’s a shame for the Phillies and their fans that Luzardo isn’t stretched out to work all that long, as it could have been a good opportunity for them to possibly sneak a game through without the use of Cristopher Sanchez or Zack Wheeler, who should be able to go on Wednesday and Thursday.
My lean here is Over 6.5. At time of writing, the price was juicy at -122, but temps will be in the low 80s and we could get some carry here. Plus, there’s a lot of familiarity for the hitters with the pitchers that will be deployed in this series. The two teams averaged 8.4 R/G in the 13 head-to-head meetings in the regular season. I’m a bit worried about Luzardo going max effort in just his second appearance and also concerned about Painter in his first postseason outing. If the Phillies can scratch out something against Sale, we should be in good shape. I’ll decide closer to first pitch if I want to go with this or not after diving a bit deeper.
Lean: Over 6.5 (-122)
White Sox at Astros (-123, 8)
5 p.m. ET
White Sox-Astros Series Preview
Hagen Smith and AJ Blubaugh will start bullpen games for both sides in this one. The White Sox had the division hanging in the balance until Saturday, so they weren’t able to set up their playoff rotation accordingly. Similarly, the Astros punched their playoff ticket by winning the AL West on Sunday. As a result, Hunter Brown is not quite available and so we see Blubaugh and a Johnny Wholestaff game.
This is quite a rapid ascent for Smith, who was drafted fifth overall in the first round in 2024. Over 28 innings, he pitched to a 1.29 ERA with a 2.45 xERA and a 2.35 FIP, allowing just 11 hits out of 110 batters faced. He did walk 16, but also struck out 41. The 23-year-old out of Arkansas was a dominant college pitcher and he’s looked great in small doses for the Pale Hose thus far. Over his 18 appearances, Smith has worked two innings seven times and three innings once. We’ll see how far Will Venable can push him here. Smith last pitched on the 25th, but only faced three batters. He threw 48 pitches in his MLB debut on August 9 and hasn’t thrown more than 35 since August 25, so we’re probably looking at around 25-30 tosses.
Smith was hell on righties, holding them to a .069/.239/.121 slash in 71 PA. He struck out 31 and walked 13, as he only surrendered four hits. Given how right-handed-heavy the Astros are, that’s the split I’m most focused on for the early going.
Given that Erick Fedde allowed a .490 SLG to right-handed batters with 16 of the 23 homers he gave up, I am worried about what happens immediately after Smith leaves and whether or not it will be Fedde or another reliever. The leverage index and the part of the lineup will probably dictate how Venable plays it. In the Wild Card Round, teams can load up on relievers, so these bullpen games are a bit less taxing.
Blubaugh worked on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, throwing 49 pitches over those three days, but he did not pitch in either of the weekend games, so he’s well-rested here. He was a viable multi-inning relief weapon, throwing 96 innings over 64 appearances with a 3.66 ERA, 4.25 xERA, and a 4.31 FIP. He topped out at 15 batters faced on May 3 and has only thrown two innings once since the end of August, which came back on September 23.
In other words, this is a true bullpen game for the Astros as well. Blubaugh is a smart opener, as lefties only hit .183/.268/.355 against him with a .275 wOBA in 214 plate appearances. That said, they did post a 40.7% Hard Hit% and a 10.7% Barrel%, so we’ll see if the left-handed-heavy Sox can take advantage of the hard contact that Blubaugh does allow. He actually allowed a 14.1% Barrel% in the second half with 14 Barrels in 99 batted ball events.
With Houston saving Brown for Game 2, Ethan Pecko, Peter Lambert, and Hayden Wesneski are probably all unavailable after pitching on Saturday and Sunday. Beyond Blubaugh, the other multi-inning option is Tatsuya Imai, the Japanese import who had a 4.93 ERA with a 4.59 xERA and a 4.25 FIP over 76.2 innings of work. Imai had a 15.2% BB% against LHB during the season and, as I wrote about in my series preview, the White Sox make a lot of smart swing decisions and work counts well.
My starting position here is the White Sox +102 with the potential to be able to live bet this game and trade in and out as the game goes along. Smith is a really tough customer and, despite all the right-handed bats, I prefer him to Blubaugh in the early going here. If the White Sox can grab a lead, the Astros will flip to the underdog. At that point, we can read how things are going and see if it’s worth it to take Houston at some point.
Pick: White Sox +102
Red Sox at Yankees (-145, 6.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
Red Sox-Yankees Series Preview
These two teams were able to get their affairs in order early so that they could set things up for the postseason. As a result, we get our first true starting pitcher matchup, as Payton Tolle goes for the Red Sox and presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner Cam Schlittler gets the call for the Yankees.
Normally you’d worry about a 23-year-old rookie starting Game 1, but Tolle’s demeanor and attitude should keep him pretty even-keel in this one. The 2024 second-rounder out of TCU had a 3.03 ERA with a 2.69 xERA and a 3.04 FIP in his 148.2 innings of work. Like so many Red Sox, Tolle had strong home run prevention numbers, which is precisely what you need to find success in the postseason. He struck out 171 with 40 walks and only allowed 15 homers with an 8.4% HR/FB%. Those are good ratios for a playoff starter.
Tolle did face one batter in last year’s postseason, so this isn’t brand new for him, but this role in the playoffs is. He faced the Yankees twice at Fenway Park, allowing one run on four hits with an 18/3 K/BB ratio over 13 innings of work, but his most recent start against them was on June 26. Obviously the storyline of all storylines in this series is whether or not Aaron Judge will be able to go and how effective he will be if he does. He’s a guy whose presence alone changes the dynamic of turning over the lineup, even if he has been a guy who has struggled by and large in the postseason.
Because the Red Sox got everything squared away early, their bullpen is exactly where they want it to be, including one tune-up appearance for Aroldis Chapman on Wednesday in his return from injury.
Schlittler was a star in two starts last postseason, allowing just two earned runs on 13 hits with a 14/0 K/BB ratio. After 14 excellent starts in the regular season, the Yankees leaned on him in the playoffs, though he was a tough-luck loser in one of those outings. But, Schlittler rode the wave of that impressive rookie campaign into a stellar 2026, as he posted a 1.95 ERA with 239 K in 193.2 innings of work. He had a 2.85 xERA and a 2.56 FIP while limiting walks, inducing an above average rate of ground balls, and keeping the ball in the park.
I don’t see a big edge in this game one way or the other. Obviously Schlittler appears to be the more trustworthy guy based on what he’s done so far as a big leaguer and how it’s better than Tolle’s returns, even with the southpaw’s great performance as a rookie. The Yankees did have some relief woes later in the season and Boston’s bullpen was one of the strongest in baseball, but I’m not sure which side, if either, will have a lead to protect late.
I do like that Tolle is left-handed given the short porch in the Bronx and all of the lefties with power in the lineup, but not enough to take a pregame position on Boston. As great as Schlittler is, the Red Sox have arguably been the better team for a while now, so I’m not eager to lay the pregame number there either.
But, every postseason game has live betting opportunities, so there may be something to do in-game.
Cubs at Padres (-126, 7)
10:10 p.m. ET
The Cubs led the league in runs during the regular season, had the highest wOBA and wRC+, and finished third in home runs. There’s a lot to like about this offense, and the position player group as a whole. Collectively, Chicago had 37.8 wins above replacement player, 11 more than any other team. That’s a nod to how buttoned up they were defensively, leading the league by a wide margin in FanGraphs’ all-encompassing Def metric and also Statcast’s Outs Above Average.
In some respects, you could consider them the best team in baseball. But, here they are on the road in the Wild Card Round against the Padres. When you consider San Diego’s inherent handicap – 81 games at Petco Park – they were a top-10 offense by wRC+, which does adjust for park factor. Comparatively, they slashed .244/.319/.398 to Chicago’s .251/.339/.428, so there are some noteworthy offensive differences between the teams. We’ll see if those show up in this best-of-three series.
The reason why the Cubs find themselves on the road for the Wild Card is because of how they finished the season, but also because the pitching staff didn’t hold up its end of the bargain, even with the league’s most elite group of fielders. There are a lot of pitchers like Matthew Boyd up and down the roster, a guy whose ERA was better than his xERA and FIP. Boyd had a 3.91 ERA, but a 4.65 xERA and a 4.21 FIP over 126.2 innings of work. Pitching to contact is not a luxury afforded to all pitchers, but Boyd was able to get around a very poor 18.5% K% because his defense was so good at converting batting balls into outs.
Based on contact quality against, batted ball types, and other factors, Boyd finished the regular season with a .264 xBA, .423 xSLG, and a .330 xwOBA. In actuality, he had a .241 BA against with a .372 SLG against and a .303 wOBA against. So, he drastically overperformed thanks to the defense behind him. Boyd ranked in the 25th percentile in xERA, 16th percentile in xBA, 26th percentile in Whiff%, and 23rd percentile in K%.
Here, Boyd draws the best lineup against lefties from the month of September by batting average and third by wOBA, as the Padres slashed .300/.361/.469 in that split. If we widen it out to the entire second half, the Padres were sixth in wOBA. The Cubs were first, but Michael King is not left-handed. Of course, they were also second in wOBA against RHP. But, guess who they trailed? The Padres.
So, in a lot of ways, San Diego had the best offense in baseball in the second half. The Cubs had the best offense in baseball for the entirety of the season.
King, like Boyd, was reliant on his defense for help. He had a 3.21 ERA, but a 4.40 xERA and a 4.13 FIP over 185 innings of work. Post-injury, his K% didn’t really come back, as he only had a 21% K% to go with a 9.2% BB%. At least Boyd was better about limiting walks.
This game could have a wide range outcomes with two pitch-to-contact starters and two quality defenses. The Cubs were better across the entirety of the sample size of the season offensively and defensively, but the Padres were above average in both areas.
But, with a rested bullpen, the Padres are the pick for me here. Their bullpen is a difference-maker. San Diego’s bullpen led all relief corps in WAR with 8.9, while the Cubs were 28th with -0.6. I will caution that bad relievers don’t pitch in the playoffs, so the guys who really dragged the Cubs down won’t be out there, but still. San Diego had the deeper and more dynamic pen all season long, led by Mason Miller.
Even though the Cubs bullpen also enjoyed the spoils of the defense, posting a much lower ERA than xERA and FIP, I’ll trust San Diego’s pen at a short favorite price here.
Pick: Padres -126
