UFC 310 Predictions:
This week’s UFC 310 event is the last PPV of the calendar year. It takes place from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. T-Mobile utilizes the larger 30-foot octagon. The event is scheduled for 14 bouts, with early prelims starting at 3 p.m. PT, prelims at 5 p.m. PT, and the five-fight main card at 7 p.m. PT.
This slate features an international composition of highly specialized fighters. Eight of fourteen fights will be held at 170 pounds and larger, which should equate to violence and finishes… which is the hope of both fans and the organization.
2024 has been a tough year on underdogs, as favorites in the UFC traditionally run about 62% to 63% percent. This year, favorites stand 347-134-14 or 70.01%.
Despite the run on chalk, digital results stand 26-25 +6.18u on the year, which equates to an average of +1.20 per win.
Alexandre Pantoja -280 vs. Kai Asakura +230
Flyweight (125 pounds) Championship
Champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title. In his last six bouts, Pantoja has dominated every elite threat in the division, in essence, ‘cleaning out’ the division’s highest-ranked fighters.
Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renowned MMA gym featuring numerous skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows him to refine his skill daily against every form of diversely trained mixed martial artist.
Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ, is a brilliant grappler supplemented with superior striking aptitude, deft evasion skill, and a depth of experience developed against the division’s ultimate threats.
He’s fast, strong, and athletic and of all his physical attributes, the trait that is most apparent in his fights is not physical; rather, it is mental, and I refer here to Pantoja’s mental toughness and his fight IQ.
Pantoja’s foe in this fight is an odd choice, to say the least.
In Japanese fighter Kai Asakura, the organization chose to bring in a bantamweight fighter from an outside fight organization who has only had a few fights since 2021.
Asakura is a large man for a 135-pound athlete, so whether he will be able to make the 125-pound championship weight will be of utmost importance. Asakura steps over other more qualified and pedigreed flyweight challengers to Pantoja’s crown.
Despite the dubious path to this debut title opportunity, Asakura does hold a three-inch advantage in height and a three-inch reach advantage over him.
Once this fight begins, I trust Pantoja to work the debuting athlete into the second round or further in order to both tax the young, strong, power-punching buzzsaw and usurp some of the spark from his strikes.
Once Pantoja can navigate this fight to and past the ten-minute mark, look for the champion’s mix of striking, kicks and grappling to begin to befuddle the hulking Asakura, who is nothing if he isn’t aggressive and forward-pressing.
In Asakura, we have the blunt force trauma of a power striker who stalks then attacks opponents, and in Alexandre Pantoja, we have the artistry of a world-class mixed martial artist who has numerous ways to confront any adversary and then dominate them.
This matchup seems to be a ‘brains versus brawn’ form of fight.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -135
Ciryl Gane -340 vs. Alexander Volkov +285
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Number two-ranked heavyweight Gane faces number three Volkov in a rematch of a 2021 fight that Gane won via unanimous decision.
In their previous fight, Gane’s footwork and deft striking/kickboxing allowed him to pick and peck at the lumbering Russian for a full five rounds. Volkov was unable to penetrate Gane’s defenses and earn an inside position, and in fact, he hardly tried that potentially successful means of attack.
In this fight, the difference is that Gane has become more experienced as a pedigreed elite heavyweight mixed martial artist, so he must be viewed as having improved since these two last tangled.
For Volkov, improvement has also been a staple of his last couple of years as he’s overwhelmed his last four legitimate adversaries after being finished by England’s interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall in 2022.
Volkov’s performance against Sergei Pavlovich in his last fight forces me to regard him as a more dangerous, calculated, powerful adversary for Gane than he was in their first foray.
Volkov’s wrestling/grappling ability first, then his size, reach, and experience advantages, together with his understanding that at 36, this may be his last viable run for a title position, should motivate him to perform at his aggressive peak against a world-class but more singularly versed opponent.
Their first fight was a five-round fight. This one is scheduled for three, which to me is the fulcrum for a Volkov release as there will be little time for ‘feeling out’ between these two.
Volkov’s mental/physical weaponry makes him most dangerous on Saturday. Current pricing does not accurately reflect Volkov’s chances of winning this fight.
UFC 310 Best Bet: Alexander Volkov +285
Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -300
Nate Landwehr -140 vs. Dooho Choi +120Â
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr fights with the force of a locomotive. Athletic with a wrestling/track background, Landwehr fights with an aggressive/unrelenting forcefulness. He hurls elbows, knees, fists and heels at opponents with the sole purpose of massive destruction. ‘The Train’ is durable, willing, and completely reckless in his pursuit to seek and destroy.
In Choi, the ‘Korean Superboy,’ we have the perfect dance partner for ’the Train’ as Choi is as nimble as a ballroom dancer on the feet. He’s lightning quick, and is able to effectively attack off of forceful, aggressive incoming opponents well. Choi is also highly mature and highly intelligent.
Like his compatriot before him, Chan Sung Jung, ‘the Korean Zombie,’ Choi served in Korea’s military, interrupting his fighting career. He returns with the focus and maturity of a fully grown, mature, physically equipped man.
In this fight, Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr, one of my favorite fighters, will struggle mightily to match the adroit, in-and-out, intrinsic, and inconsistent movement that Choi will employ. Let’s not forget that Choi opened -125 in this fight!
As Angelo Dundee would quip, ‘Styles make fights’… this is THE perfect example.
UFC 310 Best Bet: Dooho Choi +120
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -170
UFC 310 Best Bet: Heavy lean Over
Friday midday PT, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at https://www.gamblou.com/.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!
