UFC Vegas 116 Predictions:
Back to the quaint confines of the UFC Meta APEX we go for this week’s UFC Vegas 116, an event scheduled for 13 bouts, with athletes ranging in size from 115-pound Strawweight ladies to heavyweights whose weight limit is 266 pounds.
This card is populated with relatively unrecognizable talent, but there are a handful of matchups on the card that will be more than compelling.
There are four larger-weight-class clashes taking place at 170 pounds and above. There are also seven fights with wide age gaps between the combatants (fighters five years younger or more than their adversary win at a 64% clip, and that rate rises as the age gap widens)!
The international athletes arrive mostly from varying locations in the United States. However, there are five fighters who must travel (Brazil and Ecuador) to the US to take on domestic athletes who do not have to endure global travel and the weight complexities that go with it.
Last week’s release of Canadian Mandel Nallo went down in flames as Jai Herbert finished the Canadian in short time.
We head into this card holding a 7-8-1 -2.35u tally.
Let’s fight!
Youssef Zalal -155 vs. Aljamain Sterling +130
Featherweight (145 pounds) main event
Seventh-ranked featherweight Zalal arrives at this fight riding the momentum of winning five straight UFC battles.
Zalal has dynamic athleticism; he is nimble on his feet, fast, fluid, and frenetic when he needs to be, while his cage generalship and strike defense are world-class, as evidenced by his 67% strike defense.
Zalal holds a black belt in BJJ, but opponents must not regard him as singularly equipped. Zalal’s mixed martial arts weaponry is complete, well-developed, and practiced with a great deal of ill intent.
Zala steps WAY up in class for this fight. His opponent is a former 135-pound champion and has looked forceful in his last two bouts.
For Aljo Sterling, this fight is but another test the UFC is putting him through because fighter traits like world-class wrestling, dogged determination, coupled with unending cardio, are not the traits the organization wants to see its fighters take.
After all, this is the age of Paramount, 100K fight bonuses, and anti-wrestling/grappling sentiment.
We understand that the UFC yearns for toe-to-toe, sledgehammer competitions where someone ends up quivering on the canvas. Unfortunately, world-class wrestlers like Sterling do not provide the fans with that form of entertainment.
Despite Sterling’s propensity to be overlooked, his striking has developed, and as always, his unrelenting forward pressure, his cardio, and his grip lock embraces are sophisticated and subtle enough to dominate anyone in the division.
Interestingly, Zalal, 29, will be the larger man in the cage Saturday, and that is sure to force Sterling into even more forward pressing pressure wrestling. Sterling will not stand for any length of time on the outside with Zalal without blitzing him like a linebacker in the Super Bowl.
Aljo is now 36 and is a man who has faced the absolute elite of two weight classes. He will force Zalal to defend against his advances every second of the fight, which will drain Zalal’s energy while leaving him without the space/time to strike.
Sterling, like many practiced mixed martial arts insiders, understands that world-class wrestling is kryptonite to world-class BJJ, so look for Sterling to immediately engage, while Zalal will strive to find room to breathe, let alone earn this space to strike.
These two have trained together before. They know one another well, which adds a dynamic to this confrontation.
This fight will be tightly contested, and while I hesitate to side with an athlete seven years older, I must recognize who Sterling is, his experience, and the fact that he has competed in many main events before, while Zalal is in his first.
Sterling came -200 at open, and now I can invest in him plus money?
UFC Vegas 116 Best Bet: Aljamain Sterling +130 circa
Total in this bout: 4.5 Over -185
Strong lean over, strong lean to a Sterling decision also.
Alexander Hernandez -125 vs. Rafa Garcia +105
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Firefight!
Garcia is a tough, durable Mexican mixed martial artist with an iron chin, unending cardio, and a blue belt in BJJ.
Garcia’s striking is based on volume, and he does possess accumulated power in his hands. The thing with Rafa is that when he fights standing, he is more than willing to take one in order to give one, and in this matchup, that may be dangerous.
Garcia’s plan in any fight is to tax the opponent with forward striking pressure, then initiate his apt clinching, takedown strategy. Once in the clasp and/or on the mat, Garcia works to suck the life out of opponents with his constant pressure wrestling/grappling.
Garcia completes 3.13 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time while being able to defend 76% of opponent takedowns. This means he often fights from the top position.
Garcia’s opponent, Alex Hernandez, takes this fight on the momentum of four straight wins, his latest a finish of Brazilian Diego Ferreira. Hernandez’s striking is his bread and butter.
Hernandez’s power is unusual, but like Garcia, he is more than willing to receive one in order to unleash one. Hernandez’s negative .50 strike differential (per minute) is poor, but he overcomes getting flushed so often because of the tremendous power he packs in his shots.
This fight introduces fighters who are both entering with confidence and who are fighting for position. The victor of this fight sees themselves in the top 20 of this stacked lightweight division.
Garcia will want to grapple and smear the floor with Hernandez, while Hernandez will strive to keep this fight standing, where he can attempt to maim the Mexican mauler.
Both men are confident in their expertise, and both stand to make substantial jumps in earning power with a victory Saturday night.
This fight will be highly competitive, and it’s my take that it is likely to go to a decision.
Total in this Fight: 2.5 Rds Over -220
Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast, currently on a tear, drops across all podcast platforms as well as at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading. Enjoy the bouts!
