This week the UFC returns to the APEX for UFC Vegas 116, headlined by a former bantamweight champion, now at featherweight, against a hungry contender on an 8 fight win streak. Two fights on the breakdown, a card that demands patience, and a few conditional spots worth watching as the lines settle into fight week.
Last week the model went 2–2–1, and with only one actual bet on the card — a Live Dog that didn’t cash — it’s hard to call it a bad week. Small cards produce variance, and treading carefully on thin slates is exactly how you protect a record over the long haul.
The 2026 Model record now sits at 47–20–4 (70%) on the year. Regression is always expected on lighter APEX cards, and the discipline that built this bankroll is the same discipline that keeps it from sliding.
Dave Ross and I broke down the fight card on this week’s First Strike — give it a listen/watch before you finalize your card.
Let’s dig in.
Norma Dumont vs Joselyne Edwards
Two fighters on legitimate win streaks, both with eyes on the bantamweight title picture, and a matchup where the numbers are closer than you might expect, but still point clearly in one direction.
Norma Dumont has been on a tear since dropping a decision to Macy Chiasson back in 2022. Six straight wins since then, most recently a victory over Ketlen Vieira in November of 2025. Joselyne “La Pantera” Edwards enters on a four-fight win streak of her own, bringing genuine finishing ability into the cage with two submission wins and two knockout wins in the UFC, and she has never been stopped inside the octagon.
Dumont holds the xR% edge at 68% compared to Edwards’ 56%. A meaningful gap that reflects how consistently Norma controls the pace and wins rounds. Edwards’ 56% is workable, but it tells you she gives away more rounds than someone with her record might suggest.
The striking profiles paint a picture of two fighters who approach the cage differently. Dumont lands 3.89 significant strikes per minute with a remarkable +1.77 differential, absorbing only 2.12 significant strikes per minute. She is genuinely difficult to hit, and that 74% head strike defense is one of the cleaner defensive numbers you’ll find in the division. Edwards brings more volume at 4.61 significant strikes per minute with a +1.37 differential, absorbing slightly more at 3.24 per minute. Her 63% head strike defense is also solid but just a step below Dumont’s.
Both women have scored knockdowns and carry power, but the defensive profiles suggest this fight is unlikely to end dramatically unless Edwards can find that one clean shot.
The grappling picture mirrors the overall trend, Dumont edges Edwards in most categories without dominating any of them. Dumont holds a 56% control rate with 17 takedowns at 57% accuracy. Edwards checks in at 40% control rate, 14 takedowns at 40% accuracy, and has spent 31% of her fight time being controlled. Both women defend takedowns respectably, and neither is going to dramatically alter the fight through wrestling alone.
Running it through the model, Norma Dumont receives a 63.43% win probability and the prediction is clear. The problem is the price. Her moneyline has climbed all the way to –250, implying roughly 71%. The model doesn’t support that number.
Where the value may exist is in the method. If you need to find a way to bet this one, Dumont by decision is currently sitting around –160, and given her profile — zero UFC finishes, elite defensive metrics, a grinding style that wins rounds rather than ends fights — that prop reflects how this fight is most likely to play out if the model is right. We’re watching that number closely as fight week props settle here in Vegas. If it lands in a decent spot, it goes on the slip. If not, this is a fight we predict without a ticket attached to it.
No official play just yet, but keep an eye on that decision prop.
Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal
Aljamain Sterling’s legacy is complicated, and that’s not an insult, it’s just the truth.
He became bantamweight champion via disqualification after an illegal knee from Petr Yan. He went on to silence a few doubters, winning the rematch against Yan cleanly, and defended the belt twice more against Dillashaw and Cejudo before dropping it to Sean O’Malley by knockout in 2023. Whatever you thought of how he got the belt, he hopefully proved he belonged with it.
Since moving up to featherweight he’s gone 2–1, most recently handling Brian Ortega last August (a fight that should’ve been cancelled). Now 36 years old, he steps in against a contender who is making a very loud case for himself at 145.
Youssef Zalal is 29 years old and riding an eight-fight win streak. His road here is worth acknowledging. He made his UFC debut in 2020, hit a three-fight losing streak capped by a draw in 2022, left the organization, put together three straight wins on the outside, and came back to the UFC in 2024 with something to prove. He’s been proving it ever since, most recently submitting Josh Emmett in October.
Of note, his stats carry across both UFC runs, though we don’t collect data from his three Sparta fights in between.
The physical edge goes to Zalal. Three inches of height at 5’10, and a one-inch reach advantage at 72 inches. Sterling carries size well at featherweight, but it’s worth noting.
The xR% gap is modest. Sterling checks in at a strong 74%, reflecting the controlling, methodical style he’s built his career on. Zalal is right behind at 69%. Impressive in its own right and a reflection of a fighter who has matured considerably since his first UFC run.
Both men mix their styles well, spending roughly half their time at distance. Sterling lands 4.45 significant strikes per minute with an excellent +2.24 differential, absorbing only 2.21 per minute, an elite avoidance profile at any weight class. Zalal lands fewer strikes at 3.03 per minute but posts a +1.25 differential while absorbing just 1.78 significant strikes per minute. He is an exceptionally difficult target to hit, and that number stands out.
The knockdown history deserves attention. Zalal has scored two knockdowns in the UFC, while Sterling has been dropped five times in his career. He hasn’t been caught since moving to featherweight, but that history lives in the data.
The grappling picture is remarkably even. Both men hold 61–65% control rates, both attempt close to five takedowns per five minutes, and both carry 13 submission attempts apiece. The one number that sticks out is takedown defense. Zalal sits at 59% while Sterling checks in at only 45%. The question is whether Zalal has faced a takedown offense as relentless as Sterling’s. Almost certainly not.
Running it through the model, the result lands on the former champion. Aljamain Sterling receives a 63% win probability, but the confidence level from the model is right on the line between a Tier 2 and Tier 3 underdog designation. That distinction matters. Tier 2 dogs (Puncher’s Chance) in the model are 1–1 on the year. Profitable but not strong yet. Tier 3 dogs (Dead Dogs) are 1–3, and there’s a reason we leave those alone.
At +125 locally here in Vegas, the number doesn’t quite justify the play given where the model’s confidence lands. If that line drifts back towards +140, a small play on FunkMaster becomes worth the conversation. At +125, we’re watching from the sideline for now.
A light week on the slip. No forced action, no chasing.
The model sits at 47–20–4 on the 2026 season, and patience on a card like this is just as valuable as any pick we put on the slip.
Dave Ross and I covered the fight card on this week’s First Strike. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and on YouTube so you never miss an episode.
Follow along on X for live reactions, odds movement, and any last-minute updates heading into fight night. Find me at @TheRobbeo and Dave at @drosssports.
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
Model Prediction | Win Prob.% | Tier
- Aljamain Sterling | 63.13% | T3 Dead Dog
- Norma Dumont | 63.43% | T5 Trap Fav
- Rafa Garcia | 58.15% | T3 Dead Dog
- Montel Jackson | 65.17% | T5 Trap Fav
- Julia Polastri | 63.93% | T5 Trap Fav
- Cody Durden | 58.53% | T3 Dead Dog
