UFC 317 Topuria vs. Oliveira Predictions:
This Saturday, mixed martial arts returns to Las Vegas for UFC 317 from T-Mobile Arena, where an eager Vegas crowd, a large 30-foot cage, and 24 world-class fighters converge.
UFC 317 is scheduled for 12 bouts, but only four will be waged at welterweight (170 pounds) and above. Kickoff for the early prelims is 3 p.m. PT with preliminary action at 5 p.m. PT and the PPV portion of the event starting at 7 p.m. PT.
Thus far in 2025, favorites are realizing a 65.4% rate of success. That is after underdogs went 6-6 last week in a rare display of upsets.
Digital results last week went 1-1 +.10u, so this column stands 12-16 -5.05u to date.
Let’s cash some tickets!
Ilia Topuria -430 vs. Charles Oliveira +350
Lightweight (155 pounds) Championship
Oliveira needs little introduction. He’s a former lightweight champion and an adroit mixed martial artist, decorated with a 4th-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a black belt in Muay Thai. Oliveira arrives with an arsenal of weaponry and a deep desire to recapture the title.
Oliveira has faced the elite of two divisions in his time in the UFC. He moved to the lightweight division some time ago and has now transitioned his body into full lightweight form, meaning that he will weigh at least 175 pounds on fight night.
Oliveira is long and large for 155 pounds, experienced against the elite of the division, and dangerous on his feet or off his back.
Oliveira’s strength is his grappling, as his significant strike differential per five minutes of fight time is just slightly positive. His takedown offense is potent, but it is in the press against the fence, the grappling, and his wrestling that Oliveira can envelop adversaries, neutralize their defenses, then find a neck, an arm, or a leg to hyperextend.
Former featherweight title holder Ilia Topuria has shown himself to be a special/unique mixed martial artist. By nature, he is extremely aggressive and has highly advanced boxing/striking. Topuria’s strike differential per five minutes of fight time is a positive .83 and is supplemented by profuse power.
Topuria’s footwork is attributed to his ability to create angles for his devastating strikes. His grappling is also world-class, as evidenced by the fact that he was the first Georgian black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Topuria’s move up into the lightweight division for this title opportunity speaks enough to the respect he has gained/earned thus far in his UFC tenure.
Oliveira will be the larger athlete in the cage physically. He is three inches taller and has a five-inch reach advantage (arms) and four inches (legs).
Those physical attributes provide a great advantage in striking bouts, but in this bout, Oliveira will need to transition this fight against the fence and then onto the floor for him to compete in his forte.
Topuria will aggressively walk down Oliveira with the intention of bashing the Brazilian’s body. As Angelo Dundee used to chime, “kill the body and the head follows.”
Topuria’s boxing is elite, and his wrestling was founded during his childhood in Russian Georgia. His focus is keenly set on taking this title and then chasing down Dagestani former lightweight titlist Islam Makhachev.
Topuria is the deserved favorite in this spot based on his seven-year youth advantage, his mixed martial arts weaponry, and the fact that Oliveira is on the other side of his prime fighting days.
Oliveira has advantages in this fight. Two fights back, he took Arman Tsarukyan (who has fallen from grace in this division for reasons other than his cage performances) to a split decision. I recognize Tsarukyan as a very similar foe to Topuria, at least as far as wrestling goes.
Oliveira is a legitimate lightweight; he is the taller, longer fighter, but Topuria is an elite, diversely equipped talent who brings unusual skills and immense momentum into this fight.
Total in this bout 1.5 Rds Over -135
I believe it takes a short time for Topuria to overwhelm Oliveira. For that reason, I find the total in this fight spot on.
Alexandre Pantoja -270 vs. Kai Kara-France +230
Flyweight (125 pounds) Championship
New Zealand’s Kara-France enters this fight with tremendous momentum after dominating Aussie Steve Erceg in his last fight. His confidence is high. At 32 years old, Kara-France understands how foundational this UFC 317 opportunity is for his title aspirations.
A former bantamweight now competing at the pinnacle of the flyweight division, Kara-France has heavy hands, fluid movement, and is decorated with a blue belt in BJJ.
Kara-France is 4-2 in his last six UFC fights. He has faced the top ten of the division in his last several bouts, but with the flyweight division, the talent pool is paper-thin and not as stacked as the lightweight division or any other division in the organization.
Kara-France enters this fight with the understanding that this will be his finest/final opportunity to compete for this flyweight title for the division is stale and in need of fresh faces and new talent plus it will cost France considerable time should he be defeated and have to climb his way back through the relatively thin set of flyweight foes.
Kara-France will do all he can to keep this fight on the feet and at his strength. City kickboxing head coach Eugene Bareman is as competent a head coach as there is in MMA, and he will have prepared Kara-France for this terrific opportunity to hold a title.
Current flyweight champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title. In his last seven bouts, the relatively undersized Pantoja has dominated the few competent threats in the division, in essence ‘cleaning out’ its highest-ranked fighters save for France.
Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renowned MMA gym featuring an abundance of skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows Pantoja to refine his already elite fighting skills on a daily basis.
Pantoja’s dominance in the division reflects the high-energy competition he faces daily at ATT.
Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ, is a brilliant grappler with superior striking aptitude, deft evasion/defensive skills, and a depth of experience that has been developed against the division’s ultimate threats over the course of a decade plus.
The smallish Pantoja is quick, strong, and athletic for his age, but of all his physical attributes, the trait that is most apparent in his fights is not his physicality; rather, it is his mentality.
Pantoja’s mental toughness, fight IQ, and zeal to hold this title after struggling for so many years to capture it all together comprise the fabric of his fight arsenal.
Once this fight begins, Kara-France will initiate the exchanges. He will approach the champion with forward-pressing aggression early because his advantage is his power on the feet.
Should Kara-France get too aggressive, he could easily stroll directly into a takedown, which will mark the beginning of Pantoja’s dominance. On the feet, these men are equally versed, but on the mat, this fight becomes one-sided and favors the champion Pantoja.
Pantoja’s title reign may sometime be in jeopardy because of his size, his age, and the attrition he has accrued in his career. However, the division is so thinly populated with talent that the possibility remains remote that he may be overtaken by anyone outside of Kara-France or perhaps Manel Kape.
Totals in this bout: 3.5 Rds Over -130
Renato Moicano -130 vs. Beneil Dariush +110
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Moicano is a long, tall Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist who has developed the necessary footwork and striking skills to rise to the top of this division. He has earned black belts in both BJJ and Muay Thai, a combination that, applied to Moicano’s body type and aggressive mentality, delivers exciting fights featuring an abundance of blood and violence.
Moicano’s personality is vivacious, and he is a character when on the microphone after his bouts. His effervescent personality has allowed him to make a resurgence in his career, coupled with the fact that Moicano’s striking and grappling are elite despite what was displayed in his short-notice loss to former champion Islam Makhachev in his last bout.
For Beniel Dariush, this is a perfect opportunity. Dariush, 36, enters this bout off a couple of losses—one to champion Makhachev and the second to the aforementioned Charles Oliveira. Prior to that Oliveira fight, Dariush had rattled off eight straight UFC victories against renowned, rated, and formidable competition.
Like Moicano, Dariush is a black belt in BJJ and Muay Thai. He has power in his hands and is ultra-dangerous on the floor.
Dariush was finished in both of his previous two bouts, which is of some concern. However, Moicano does not possess near the raw power or overall striking aptitude of those two foes, so this confrontation sets up to be one competitive fight between a couple of grizzled, grappling veterans.
For the victor of this UFC 317 fight, there are more lucrative fights ahead and a potential path to a title fight. However, for the loser, there will be few spoils as this division, unlike the flyweight division, is one of the most competitive in the UFC.
Outside of their differing body types, these two men have remarkably similar fight weaponry, IQ, and ability, which is why the line on this fight has dropped from Moicano originally being a -180 chalk to his current pricing of -130, with the takeback on the Iranian Dariush is +110.
Dariush is in an advantageous spot to surprise in this bout against an athlete in Moicano who has parlayed his personality into a run of UFC wins, propelling him up the rankings, but a man whose timing has been better than his actual ability.
Against Beneil Dariush, no amount of Moicano trash talk or social satire will help him defend Dariush’s mixed martial arts prowess.
UFC 317 Best Bet: Beneil Dariush +110
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -120
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops only at GambLou.com this Friday at midday. Catch all my UFC 317 releases there and enjoy the fights!
