UFC Vegas 104 Predictions – Vettori vs. Dolidze:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Vegas 104 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 4-1 (+3.65 Units, 62.93% ROI)
2025: 23-28 (-1.83 Units, -3.10% ROI)
Since 2020: 693-659 (+192.44 Units, 11.04% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 9-1 (90%)
2025: 64-29-1 (68.82%)
Article History: 320-213-1 (60.04%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Marvin Vettori (-166) vs Roman Dolidze (+140)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-230) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+175)
Middleweight Bout
Two years ago, Marvin Vettori won a unanimous (albeit controversial) decision over Roman Dolidze at UFC 286 in London. At the time, Dolidze was on a four-fight win streak (three via finish, all as an underdog). Despite the momentum, Dolidze was a solid +205 underdog, and I bet on him. I thought Dolidze won the fight due to the damage caused (as did 14/28 journalists on MMADecisions.com). Ultimately, the judges disagreed. And when you peel back the curtain and look at the statistics of that fight, it does appear Vettori landed 106 significant strikes to Dolidze’s 71 and was 12% more accurate. However, damage is the first scoring criterion, and by my eye, Dolidze achieved that. But enough about the last fight, let’s look at who these fighters are today.
Marvin Vettori gets nowhere near enough credit as an elite middleweight and a true division stalwart. The 31-year-old has been in the UFC for nearly nine years. He has put together a 9-5-1 record while fighting the best opposition the division has to offer. Vettori has lost to Israel Adesanya twice (first via split decision, then via unanimous decision in a title fight), Robert Whittaker, and Jared Cannonier. All three of those opponents are top-five ranked and former champions or title challengers.
Vettori wins because he knows how to score and is as durable as they come. He has a trapezoid-shaped neck that acts as a natural shock absorber, and it is also short, meaning he is tough to choke. At 6’, he is stocky in the division but generally finds a home for his strikes, both with his hands and feet. He never runs out of energy and has gone to a five-round decision six times in the UFC. He lands just over 4.5 significant strikes per minute while avoiding 56% of the action coming back his way. He is an opportunistic wrestler, landing 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, but this does not seem like a matchup where he will employ this strategy. It also should be noted that this is his comeback fight after a prolonged injury absence. He has not fought in the UFC since losing to Jared Cannonier in June of 2023.
I was the top Roman Dolidze fan in the world when he was on his three-fight win-via-finish streak. He was making me money, and he looked like he had the devastating power to knock any opponent out and the wrestling chops to mix things up. But he lost a ton of momentum when he lost that decision to Marvin Vettori. He followed that fight up with a majority decision loss over five rounds vs Nassourdine Imavov. I was disappointed in that result, but I will be the first to admit I was slow to hop on the Imavov hype train. After the back-to-back losses, he took a short-notice fight up a weight class at light heavyweight and won a dominant decision versus former training partner Anthony Smith. Then, in October of 2024, he defeated Kevin Holland, who injured his rib in the first round and could not continue. At 36 years old, Dolidze is a bit of a conundrum. He has freak strength and power to overwhelm most opponents. He also has a very rudimentary striking game that depends on him landing with power. His technique is rudimentary, and his hand speed is nothing to get excited about. But freakish power is freakish power.
I do expect this fight to go the distance, and I do expect Marvin Vettori to start a little slow after his prolonged layoff. That being said, I think his trapezoid neck and concrete skull will protect him from getting knocked out, and I think he will land much more frequently than his older opponent. This fight should go the distance, and the favorite should win.
FIGHT WINNER: Marvin Vettori
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: Marvin Vettori to Win Via Decision (+120, Fanduel), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
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Chidi Njokuani (+164) vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-198)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)
Welterweight Bout
Chidi Njokuani hates cutting down to the 171-pound welterweight limit, but his foray into the UFC’s middleweight waters did not end well. But even as an MMA veteran at 36 years old, Njokouani missed weight on Friday, coming in at 172.25 pounds. A bit disappointing for a fighter given the chance to reinvigorate his fan base in a co-main event. Overall, Njokuani is 24-10 as a professional and 4-3 in the UFC (2-0 as a welterweight). Both of his UFC wins at middleweight have been via KO, but both of his welterweight victories have come on the judges’ scorecards. He is a very accurate striker who is defensively sound. Additionally he is big and long at middleweight at 6’3” with a 80” reach.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos has been in the UFC since 2015, amassing an 11-4-1 record. Three of his four losses (and the draw) have come as an underdog, meaning that he is generally a dependable favorite to back. His stylistic background is in capoeira, allowing him to have fluid kicking techniques and extremely unique movement in the cage. Six of his UFC victories have gone to a decision, and he has only been finished once, a fluke KO loss to Li Jingliang back in 2019. Despite the fluidity of his strikes, he relies more on volume than accuracy. He gets hit slightly more than Njokuani, but his defense is still solid, especially considering the amount of minutes he has logged versus UFC competition. He is not an eager grappler but is capable in certain spots. If he can get Njokuani’s back to the cage, he may attempt to get the fight on the floor, but I would not expect that opportunity to present itself until the later rounds.
The longer this fight goes, the better it is for Zaleski. Njokuani generally slows down in the third round of fights, whereas Zaleski has a propensity for action the full 15 minutes. I do not foresee a finish in this fight and look to Zaleski to win, likely via decision.
FIGHT WINNER: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Alexander Hernandez (-218) vs Kurt Holobaugh (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Lightweight Bout
Alex Hernandez has bounced between the featherweight and lightweight classes for much of his UFC career. Overall, he is 7-7 and just 4-6 in his last ten fights dating back to 2020. Gas tank, regardless of the weight class he is fighting in, is always a question, as is fight IQ, and overall commitment to doing whatever it takes to win. He won his last fight via split decision versus Austin Hubbard, which is a less-than-stellar result for a guy who was once billed as a future contender. At age 32, Hernandez is in dire need of a big result if he ever wants to return to the glory he obtained after his UFC debut, a knockout victory over Beniel Dariush as a +350 underdog. That is a tall ask, considering he gets hit more than he lands and only employs takedowns in extremely select circumstances.
Kurt Holobaugh is a wily old veteran. He was cut from the UFC twice before this stint, once in 2013 and then again in 2019. He made his way back to the organization after participating in The Ultimate Fighter season 31, which he won. After winning the reality show, he lost a decision to Trey Ogden, then won via decision versus Kaynan Kruschewsky. He is 38 years old, hungrier than ever, smarter than ever, but still physically limited. He hunts for submissions, but if he wants to get one versus Hernandez, he must get him worn down first. I also expect him to be slower in hand speed than Hernandez, so defense will need to be a priority. Overall, I cannot bet on Alex Hernandez, but there are better places to put your money than on Kurt Holobaugh
BET WINNER: Kurt Holobaugh
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: Pass
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Da’Mon Blackshear (-425) vs Cody Gibson (+330)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Bantamweight Bout
Da’Mon Blackshear has had a very strange UFC career. He took a short-notice fight versus Youssef Zalal in 2022 and fought to a draw as a short +115 underdog. From there, he has been up and down. He has an excellent ground game, but his chin has to be questioned after he lost via KO in 18 seconds versus Montel Jackson last July. But, after the embarrassing loss, he rebounded nicely, submitting the veteran Cody Stamann as a solid favorite back in November. Overall, his striking from stand-up positions is a liability, but if he gets any opponent to the ground, it feels like only a matter of time before he will find a submission.
Cody Gibson is another fighter living out his second chance in the UFC. From 2014-2015 he went 1-3 in the UFC. After earning some wins on the regional scene, he got a chance to partake in The Ultimate Fighter season 31 and was the bantamweight runner-up. He has since gone 1-2 in the organization and has won his last two fights. He lacks overwhelming physical attributes but is extremely durable and a willing competitor who pushes until fight’s end. He has never been knocked out as a pro. However, four of his ten pro losses have come via submission. His path to victory in this fight is keeping it standing. Given the fact that he isn’t much of a knockout threat, I expect Blackshear to close the distance and get this fight where he wants it.
FIGHT WINNER: Da’Mon Blackshear
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: Parlay: Da’Mon Blackshear/Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-118), Risk 1.18 Units to Win 1
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Diyar Nurgozhay (-395) vs Brendson Ribeiro (+310)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Light Heavyweight Bout
Diyar Nurgozhay has made a terrible first impression in the UFC. He missed weight on Friday, and it wasn’t a small miss. He came in at 210.5 pounds in a division that allows competitors in non-title bouts to weigh in at 206. I don’t know what happened, but on the scale, he did not look depleted or injured. It looked like he simply decided not to put himself through the grind it takes to lose the final five pounds of water weight. It’s puzzling for someone who the UFC would love to back after he won on Contender Series via a violent head kick KO. He is 10-0 as a pro and 27 years old from the nation of Kazakstan, which is absolutely MMA-obsessed. He needs to put on a show if he wants to make up for this terrible faux pas.
Brendson Ribeiro is 1-2 in the UFC and coming off a controversial split decision victory versus Caio Machado. Machado landed more significant strikes in each round and more significant head strikes in two of three rounds, but for whatever reason, the judges decided Ribeiro did enough to win. I give this preface because despite having a UFC win, I do not think Ribeiro is UFC quality (neither is Machado, for what its worth). Ribeiro’s debut was a first-round KO loss to Mingyang Zhang, and he followed that up with a majority decision loss to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov. In three UFC fights, he has a negative strike differential and has not stopped an opponent’s takedown.
FIGHT WINNER: Diyar Nurgozhay
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: Pass
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Seungwoo Choi (+400) vs Kevin Vallejos (-535)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+120)
Featherweight Bout
Seungwoo Choi is 4-6 in the UFC and 1-4 in his last five fights. Three of those losses have come inside the distance. He has terrible striking defense, allowing over 50% of his opponents’ attempts to find a home, and his striking is inaccurate. He profiles as someone who does not belong in the UFC. Kevin Vallejos is 14-1 as a pro. The 23-year-old Argentine’s one loss came a year and a half ago in Contender Series, via decision, versus Jean Silva (now 4-0 in the UFC with four knockouts). Silva actually outstruck Silva in the first round and slowed down as the fight progressed. In his second UFC fight, he was able to get the first-round knockout. This fight feels like it will result in Vallejos knocking Choi’s head off.
FIGHT WINNER: Kevin Vallejos
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: Kevin Vallejos Win via KO in R1/R2 (+100, Bovada) vs Choi, Risk 1 Unit to win 1 Unit
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Waldo Cortes Acosta (-198) vs Ryan Spann (+164)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-180 | Under 1.5 Rounds (+140)
Heavyweight Bout
Waldo Cortes Acosta is an annoying heavyweight to watch. Not because he isn’t skilled or physically impressive, but because he is far too aware of what it takes to win fights. He doesn’t take many risks and is not concerned with entertaining the fans. He doesn’t chase the knockout despite having impressive hand speed. But his methods are effective. He is 5-1 in the UFC with four wins via decision. His one KO was against one of the worst opponents in the division, Lukasz Brzeski, and his decisions have come against four fighters who are no longer in the organization (Robelis Despaigne, Andrei Arlovski, Chase Sherman, Jared Vanderaa). Ryan Spann has been in the UFC for nearly seven years, but this octagon walk will be his first in the heavyweight division. He has a tall and long 6’5” frame and, on the scale, looked comfortable at 249 pounds Friday morning. His chin has failed him multiple times in the past but without a weight cut. Against a fighter who isn’t exactly known for devastating power, he will be confident in his durability. He has a much more sophisticated ground game than Cortes Acosta, so if it gets there, he will have an advantage.
FIGHT WINNER: Waldo Cortes Acosta
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: Pass
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SuYoung You (-520) vs AJ Cunningham (+390)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+100)
Bantamweight Bout
SuYoung You is 1-0 in the UFC after a successful appearance victory in the Road to UFC championship in November of last year. Generally speaking, I do not give much credit to Road to UFC champions because many fighters have gotten their chance in the big show and fallen straight on their face. That being said, AJ Cunningham was a late replacement fighter in his debut vs. Ludovit Klein and got KO’d in the first round. Between that and his Contender Series KO loss, Cunningham’s significant strike defense is among the worst I’ve seen in a two-fight sample (11.90 absorbed per minute). But Su Young You is a chain grappler who doesn’t want to fight standing. This fight has the potential to be closer than the line, but both these guys are tough to evaluate, given their strength of schedule.
FIGHT WINNER: SuYoung You
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: PASS
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Carlos Vera (+525) vs Josias Musasa (-750)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+140)
Bantamweight Bout
Carlos Vera is a grappling specialist with an 0-1 UFC record. He also lost to Brad Katona in the first round of Season 31 of The Ultimate Fighter. Prior to the UFC, he faced very low-level competition. He didn’t get out of the starting blocks in his debut versus Rinya Nakamura, who was recently exposed as an extremely one-dimensional opponent. Yet, these odds are pretty ridiculous, given Musasa’s lack of experience. Josias Musasa is 26 years old and 8-0. The Congolese fighter is nicknamed “The KO Wizard” and lived up to the name, until his Contender Series matchup last September. In that fight, Musasa won via split decision as a +160 underdog while finishing the fight with a negative strike differential, negative takedown differential, and a significant deficit when it comes to striking accuracy. He did avoid 12 of 16 takedown attempts and was able to maintain 4:06 of control time to his opponent’s 3:51. That is all good, but Vera has never been knocked out and has five wins via submission. If this fight gets into grappling exchanges, Musasa is likely to be a fish out of water.
FIGHT WINNER: Josias Musasa
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: Pass
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Stephanie Luciano (-205) vs Sam Hughes (+170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-620) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+400)
Women’s Strawweight Bout
Stephanie Luciano is 1-0 in the UFC. She fought to a draw vs Talita Alencar in Contender Series, but she was awarded a contract anyway. Then she was able to get the rematch in her first UFC fight. She is young at 25 years old but put on a veteran performance in her debut, winning every round in straightforward fashion. She was the dominant striker in both fights and projects to land plenty of significant strikes versus Sam Hughes. With a 4-5 record in the UFC, Sam Hughes has been up and down in the organization, but she has seen a variety of talented opponents. I give Luciano a decided advantage on the feet, and potentially in grappling as well. I think the only way Hughes wins this fight is veteran prowess, which I cannot rule out.
FIGHT WINNER: Stephanie Luciano
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: Pass
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Daniel Barez (+370) vs Andre Lima (-485)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
Flyweight Bout
Daniel Barez is 1-1 in the UFC. He lost via submission to the dangerous Jafel Filho in his debut, but he was able to rebound and eke out a decision win versus the always-game Victor Altamirano as a short underdog. Andre Lima is 10-0 as a professional and 3-0 in the UFC. Everyone he has fought in the UFC has been his age (26) or younger, and his debut win was quite controversial. His opponent was disqualified for biting. Both of these guys can strike, but Lima is probably a little better defensively. Barez is much more likely to employ takedowns and mix things up. I think that this line is far too wide, and I think Lima’s undefeated record could be at risk in this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Daniel Barez
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: Daniel Barez (+385, BetOnline) vs Andre Lima, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.85
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Josiane Nunes (-175) vs Priscila Cachoeira (+145)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-245) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+185)
Women’s Bantamweight Bout
Josiane Nunes is a bowling ball-shaped women’s bantamweight. She’s 5’2”, 135 pounds, with a disproportionate 67” reach. She is a tough matchup for most in the division. She is an excellent striker and hard to take down because of her low center of gravity. She can sometimes have trouble landing strikes because she cannot always close the distance (even despite her reach). She began her UFC career 3-0 but has lost two in a row, first as a favorite, then as a +225 underdog via split decision versus Jacqueline Cavalcanti. Priscilla Cachoeira is 36 years old and 4-6 in the UFC. She has lost two fights in a row, both of whom are much more willing grapplers. This fight should take place on the feet, and Nunes will likely score much more.
FIGHT WINNER: Josiane Nunes
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: Josiane Nunes (-175) vs Priscilla Cachoeira, Risk 1.75 Units to Win 1
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Yuneisy Duben (+240) vs Carli Judice (-298)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Yuneisy Duben is an undefeated fighter making her UFC debut. The 28-year-old Venezuelan won via KO in Contender Series as a +450 underdog. Her five previous opponents had a combined professional record of 0-0. That type of perfection in matchmaking is rare and needs to be respected. Just kidding, it’s insane. She was supposed to go down easy versus Shannon Clark in Contender Series but flipped the script. Now, she gets a chance to prove that the last victory was not a fluke. Carli Judice is 26 years old and just 3-2 as a pro, 0-1 in the UFC. She lost in Contender Series via split decision versus Ernesta Kareckaite, who isn’t exactly setting the UFC on fire with her striking prowess. She then lost via split decision to Gabriella Fernandes, who is now up to 2-2 in the organization. Judice landed 168 and 169 significant strikes in her two fights tracked by official UFC stats. That is insane output, but she did not get her hand raised on either occasion. Meanwhile, Judice was able to put out her Contender Series opponent with just 25 strikes. Both women are extremely inexperienced versus UFC level competition, and I would not back Judice at this price versus anyone.
FIGHT WINNER: Yuneisy Duben
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BET: Pass
UFC VEGAS 104 BEST BEST BETS RECAP
– Marvin Vettori to Win Via Decision (+120, FanDuel), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
– Parlay: Da’Mon Blackshear/Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-118), Risk 1.18 Units to Win 1
– Kevin Vallejos Win via KO in R1/R2 (+100, Bovada) vs Choi, Risk 1 Unit to win 1 Unit
– Daniel Barez (+385, BetOnline) vs Andre Lima, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.85– Josiane Nunes (-175) vs Priscilla Cachoeira, Risk 1.75 Units to Win 1
