The 2023-24 NBA season is in full swing and we’re tackling it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Monday, March 11. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 11
2023 Record: 245-238-2 (-1.35 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – March 11
Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 pm ET
I’m not going to put a lot on the Bulls tonight, but I do like them to cover against the Mavericks. Dallas is obviously a very explosive team, so Chicago can’t afford to lose focus defensively. But I don’t see any reason to doubt the Bulls right now. They’re coming off a road trip in which they won three of their four games, and they were very competitive in Saturday’s loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. Chicago has a really good offensive duo of its own in Coby White and DeMar DeRozan. Those two should be able to do some damage against a mediocre Dallas defense. And Nikola Vucevic’s ability to draw bigs away from the basket will only put more responsibility on the Mavericks perimeter defenders.
Defensively, it’s nice that Chicago can throw Alex Caruso on Kyrie Irving and Torrey Craig on Luka Doncic. Neither one of those matchups will go 100% smoothly, but both Bulls defenders will do what they can to make the Mavericks stars work. That’s all you can ask for here. Dallas is also just 19-33 against the spread against Eastern Conference opponents over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Chicago is 16-14 when trying to avenge a loss to an opponent this season. And I like the fact that the Bulls will attempt to do so at home, where fans should be excited about watching this team again. Chicago is in a weird spot when it comes to a long-term plan, but the on-court product has been fun. These guys compete hard every single night.
Bet: Bulls +4 (-110)
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 pm ET
The other night, the Spurs went into the Chase Center and earned a 126-113 win over the Warriors. San Antonio was facing a Steph Curry-less Golden State team in that one, but the Spurs didn’t have Victor Wembanyama out there. Tonight, it seems like the Rookie of the Year favorite will play. And this game happens to be in San Antonio, so I have a hard time passing on the Spurs here. San Antonio is already 2-0 ATS against Golden State this season, and the team will have the best player on the floor tonight. The Spurs are also an impressive 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games, so they have been very competitive lately. With that in mind, I’m not overthinking this. I’m playing San Antonio to cover and also putting a unit on the moneyline.
With Curry out again, I just don’t see where Golden State will consistently find offense. Klay Thompson is still capable of getting very hot, but Devin Vassell is a good wing defender and should do a decent job of sticking him. And I’m not all that worried about Jonathan Kuminga or Brandin Podziemski here. Both players have been great for the Warriors this season, but I don’t see them leading the team to a win without one of the best players on earth. This line just feels a little off to me.
Bet: Spurs +4.5 (-110 – 2 units) & Spurs ML (+165)
Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 pm ET
I have been going to Toronto Overs a lot lately and I don’t see any reason to back off now. Over the last 10 games, the Raptors are 26th in the league in defensive rating. They’re also second in the league in pace in that same span. I said this in my writeup the other day, but this team is just begging for high-scoring games. And I don’t think they’ll get much resistance from the Nuggets, who are fifth in the league in offensive rating over the last 10 games. I simply don’t know what Toronto will be able to do to keep Denver from scoring with ease in this game. Nikola Jokic should absolutely pick this Raptors team apart, and he won’t even need to score to do it.
The only concern I have here is whether Toronto will be able to do its part. Denver is fifth in the league in defensive rating over the last 10 games, so the team is getting it done on both ends of the floor. But the Nuggets might have a little trouble locking in defensively in a game like this. Denver played a gauntlet of a schedule before facing the Utah Jazz last night, and that resulted in a 142-121 win for the Nuggets in a game with little defense played. This once might be very similar.
Bet: Over 231 (-110 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 11
Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 pm ET
Jusuf Nurkic has been a monster on the glass recently. Over the last nine games, Nurkic has had eight games with double digits in rebounds. He also went Over tonight’s 10.5-rebound total in seven of those. Tonight, Nurkic will go to work against a Cleveland team that will be without Evan Mobley. That will leave Nurkic with a lot of battles with Jarrett Allen. For as good as Allen is, he can be soft around the basket. That said, I’d be surprised if Nurkic doesn’t push him around. Also, Nurkic is averaging 22.8 rebound chances per game over the last 10 games. His rebounding is crucial to the Suns winning games, so he’s going to need to have a big game on the boards tonight. That’s why I’m going Over with tonight’s NBA player props. I’m also playing an alternate.
Bet: Nurkic Over 10.5 Rebounds (-115) & Nurkic To Record 14+ Rebounds (+260 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
Denver Nuggets -14.5 2H (-110 – 1.5 units) vs. Portland Trail Blazers
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