NBA Betting System:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, December 15, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home teams playing a 3rdin8+Days game are 32-10 SU & 28-12-2 ATS (70%) hosting teams playing a 2DaysRest game over the L4 seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (-7 vs NOP), WASHINGTON (+17.5 vs BOS)
*NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 66-49 SU & 63-50-2 ATS (55.8%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-4.5 at LAL)
* Home teams on 3+DaysRest are 26-12 SU & 23-8-7 ATS (74.2%) versus teams playing on a 4thStraightRoad game over the L3 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+3 vs DAL)
* NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 167-62 SU & 125-101-3 ATS (55.3%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-11 vs POR)
* HOME TEAMS are 11-3 in L14 of DAL-GSW h2h series
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (+3 vs DAL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the HANDLE has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, NEW YORK, MINNESOTA, MEMPHIS
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DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority HANDLE backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK
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DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning NUMBER of BETS. When 70% or more of the NUMBER of BETS has been on a HOME side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA
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DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority HANDLE groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with HANDLE groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, NEW YORK, MINNESOTA, PHOENIX, MEMPHIS
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DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a MASSIVE disparity of success levels for majority groups on HANDLE when they back the HOME OR ROAD team on MONEY LINE wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and a ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and a ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – INDIANA ML, PHOENIX ML
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DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority HANDLE groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, a R.O.I. of -39.2%. while majority NUMBER OF BETS groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, a R.O.I. of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until somethings changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON ML
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These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of HANDLE bettors were backing the UNDER in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking OVER’s. When any majority number have favored the UNDER option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-ORL, DAL-GSW
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DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for NUMBER OF BETS majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and a R.O.I. of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-LAL
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DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority HANDLE bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority NUMBER of BETS groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NYK-ORL, MIN-SAS
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing a 3rdin8+Days game are 70-40 SU & 67-41-2 ATS (62%) versus teams playing a 2DaysRest game over the L4 seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (-7 vs NOP), WASHINGTON (+17.5 vs BOS)
* Home teams playing a 3rdin8+Days game are 76-50 SU & 70-53-3 ATS (56.9%) hosting road teams on OneDayRest over the L4 seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 vs MIN), PHOENIX (-11 vs POR), LA LAKERS (+4.5 vs MEM)
* Home teams playing on 3+DaysRest are 46-21 SU & 41-23-3 ATS (64.1%) hosting teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game over the L3 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+3 vs DAL)
* Home teams on 3+DaysRest are 26-12 SU & 23-8-7 ATS (74.2%) versus teams playing on a 4thStraightRoad game over the L3 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+3 vs DAL)
* Home teams on OneDayRest are 48-37 SU & 47-35-3 ATS (57.3%) hosting teams playing on a 3rdGamein8+Days game over the L4 seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, WASHINGTON, SAN ANTONIO, PHOENIX, LA LAKERS
* Home teams playing a 3rdin8+Days game are 32-10 SU & 28-12-2 ATS (70%) hosting teams playing a 2DaysRest game over the L4 seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (-7 vs NOP), WASHINGTON (+17.5 vs BOS)
* UNDER the total was 76-45 (62.8%) over the L4 seasons when one team was on 2DaysRest and the opponent was playing a 3rdin8+Days game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-IND (o/u at 231), BOS-WSH (o/u at 233)
* UNDER the total was 39-18 (68.4%) over the L3 seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a 3rdin8+Days game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-IND, BOS-WSH, MIN-SAS, POR-PHX, MEM-LAL
* UNDER the total was 66-34 (66%) since start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4thGamein10+Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rdin8+Days game, in other words two pretty rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all seven games
* UNDER the total was on a 40-14 (74.1%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4thGamein10+Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a OneDayRest game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-IND, BOS-WSH, MIN-SAS, POR-PHX, MEM-LAL
* UNDER the total was 33-17 (66%) since start of last season when both teams in a NBA matchup were in the same 3rdin8+Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all seven games
* WASHINGTON is on 1-15 SU & 4-12 ATS skid when playing a 3rdin8+Days game
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+17.5 vs BOS)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, UNDER the total has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 168-143 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 236-177 (57.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOS-WSH (o/u at 233), POR-PHX (o/u at 230.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
2) Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 210-122 SU but 149-177-6 ATS (45.7%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 30-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-4.5 at LAL)
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Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
4) NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 66-49 SU & 63-50-2 ATS (55.8%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-4.5 at LAL)
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Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
8) NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 262-205 SU but 203-252-12 ATS (44.6%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-7 vs NOP)
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Unusual shooting performance systems
11) NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 275-232 (54.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-WSH (o/u at 233)
13) Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 270-253 SU & 234-276-11 ATS (45.9%) the next game over the L4 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-17.5 at WSH), PHOENIX (-11 vs POR)
14) NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 137-161 SU & 134-157-7 ATS (46%) in that next contest over the last 6 seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-17.5 at WSH)
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Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
15) NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 167-140 SU & 170-128-9 ATS (57%) run.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+3 vs DAL)
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Unusual defensive performances
17) Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 167-62 SU & 125-101-3 ATS (55.3%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-11 vs POR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +3 (+2.2)
2. WASHINGTON +17.5 (+1.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -4.5 (+1.1)
2. MINNESOTA -4.5 (+0.5)
3. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +3 (+4.8)
2. SAN ANTONIO +4.5 (+2.7)
3. ORLANDO +4.5 (+0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -17.5 (+1.9)
2. MEMPHIS -4.5 (+1.1)
3. INDIANA -7 (+0.4)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-ORL OVER 214 (+1.1)
2. MIN-SAS OVER 214.5 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEM-LAL UNDER 235 (-2.8)
2. BOS-WSH UNDER 233 (-2.2)
3. NOP-IND UNDER 231 (-1.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +3 (+2.4)
2. WASHINGTON +17.5 (+1.3)
3. NEW ORLEANS +7 (+1.0)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -4.5 (+1.1)
2. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.3)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-IND OVER 231 (+2.5)
2. MIN-SAS OVER 214.5 (+1.8)
3. NYK-ORL OVER 214 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-WSH UNDER 233 (-4.3)
2. MEM-LAL UNDER 235 (-2.4)
3. DAL-GSW UNDER 229 (-1.1)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(517) NEW ORLEANS at (518) INDIANA
* UNDER the total is 4-1 in L5 games between nonconference foes NOP and IND in Indiana
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(521) MINNESOTA at (522) SAN ANTONIO
* SAN ANTONIO has covered L5 h2h matchups with Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS
(523) PORTLAND at (524) PHOENIX
* UNDER the total is 5-1 in L6 h2h games between POR and PHX at Phoenix
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(525) MEMPHIS at (526) LA LAKERS
* OVER the total is 6-0 in all six MEM-LAL h2h matchups since the start of last season
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(581) DALLAS at (582) GOLDEN STATE
* HOME TEAMS are 11-3 in L14 of DAL-GSW h2h series
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS
