Every night of the 2025-26 NBA season gives us a fresh set of games and numbers to pick apart. This daily column digs into the best sides and totals on the board, using in-depth basketball analysis, betting trends, and our VSiN NBA betting splits to spot value. We’ll also be tackling these slates relentlessly on our live VSiN programming, which is why basketball fans should really consider a VSiN Pro subscription. Below you’ll find some NBA picks and predictions for November 21.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today – Friday, November 21
Pacers +14.5 (-110) vs. Cavaliers
Pacers at Cavaliers – 7:00 pm ET
There’s a good chance the Pacers become a profitable ATS team over the next couple of weeks. With a 2-13 record, public bettors will be looking to fade them — especially knowing Tyrese Haliburton is out for the year. However, now that Bennedict Mathurin is back, Indiana should be tough on a nightly basis.
The Pacers are coming off a game in which they put up 127 points against the Hornets, and they essentially did it in 100 possessions. It was an offensive masterclass for Indiana, and there’s no reason this team can’t be decent on that end of the floor all year. Mathurin is a big, athletic wing that can score at all three levels, Pascal Siakam is an All-Star with serious offensive versatility, and Andrew Nembhard is very reliable at the point guard spot. The Pacers also have some solid rotational pieces, plus Rick Carlisle has a player-friendly offensive system.
Tonight, I can just see Indiana being good enough offensively to stay within this large number. The Pacers have been a thorn in the side of the Cavaliers over the years, and they knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago. Cleveland has also been a little worse than expected offensively this season, plus the defense isn’t anything too special.
The Cavaliers are also without Sam Merrill tonight, joining Max Strus in street clothes. Those are two of the best shooters on the Cleveland roster, and Darius Garland, Jaylon Tyson, and Jarrett Allen are all questionable here. If any of those guys miss this one, the Cavaliers won’t be in great shape.
Steve Makinen, our VSiN analytics expert, also had an estimated line of -10.5 for this game. That suggests the 14.5 for the Pacers is strong value — even with the NBA Cup format encouraging teams running up the score.
Bulls -2 (-110 – 1.5 units) vs. Heat
Heat at Bulls – 8:00 pm ET
The Heat have some key players on the injury report tonight, as Andrew Wiggins and Nikola Jovic will be joining Tyler Herro as inactives. Well, that’s a pretty rough start in what’s already a tough matchup. The Bulls have a +4.5 net rating at home this season, while the Heat have a net rating of -0.4 on the road. Chicago is also 61-48-2 against the spread as a home favorite under Billy Donovan, and the crowd should be a factor here. The Bulls just returned from a four-game road trip — and sixth road game in seven contests — so the fans should be fired up to see them — especially in an NBA Cup game.
I also like the stylistic matchup for Chicago here. Miami’s new offense has been good about generating good looks from the corners, plus the Heat like to take a lot of short mid-range shots (thanks to Bam Adebayo). Well, the Bulls have been very good at defending corner 3s this year, plus they’re doing a good job of keeping opponent field goal percentage down on all mid-range attempts.
Suns +5.5 (-138) vs. Timberwolves
Timberwolves at Suns – 9:00 pm ET
The Suns are 6-2 with a net rating of +12.9 at home this season. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have a net rating of only +3.4 on the road. Minnesota is also winless against teams with winning records this season, making this an interesting game.
This is one in which a lot of bettors will be flocking to the Timberwolves side — and our VSiN betting splits back that up. Minnesota has been to two consecutive Western Conference Finals, and nobody really buys Phoenix’s hot start. However, it does look like sharp bettors are on the Suns.
The Suns also have some ways they can trouble the Wolves. For starters, opponents are averaging 16.7 turnovers per game against Phoenix this year. That’s the sixth-highest mark in the league. That should be scary for Minnesota, as the team currently has Anthony Edwards playing point guard. Having Edwards on ball isn’t the worst thing in the world. He’s one of the best players in basketball. However, he’s not the greatest decision-maker on the planet, and this team was definitely hoping some of the actual point guards on the roster would be better. As things stand, Phoenix might be able to turn Minnesota over a lot. I also think the Suns can get to the Timberwolves with their offensive rebounding. Phoenix has been good on the offensive glass this year; Minnesota hasn’t been good about keeping opponents off it.
I am, however, buying some points in this game, getting the Suns up through the key number of 5. I was able to find that at -138 — and you might be able to do better. I’d prefer the tiny bit of juice on a better number than just going with the +4.
Added Best Bets (Parlays, Teasers, Futures)
Celtics 14.5 (-120) vs. Nets
PARLAY: Pelicans Alt +10.5 vs. Mavericks & Warriors ML vs. Trail Blazers (-130 – 1.5 units)
