It’s officially time for the NBA Playoffs. We’ve been working hard to get you ready for some of these awesome opening-round matchups, so make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Saturday, April 19th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 19th
NBA Best Bets Today – April 19th
Game 1: Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks – 6:00 pm ET
This is going to be a fascinating series to watch. A lot of smart people are taking the Over on the series’ 5.5-game total, and it isn’t hard to figure out why. Detroit went 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread in four meetings with New York this season, and two of those outright victories came at Madison Square Garden. This Pistons team is fearless and feels like it has what it takes to beat the Knicks. And while I’m not sure that’s the case, I at least admire the gall.
I’m ultimately a little nervous about Detroit’s lack of firepower around Cade Cunningham, which is why I’m not looking to be on the Pistons side of any series-long plays — or series total plays. Say what you want about New York, but Jalen Brunson will be the best offensive player in this series. And while Cunningham is probably second, the Knicks also have Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby as reliable bucket-getters. In the end, that should make the difference. But that doesn’t mean New York is going to be blowing Detroit out on a game-by-game basis. I see this series having a couple of absolute dogfights. And I think we see that from the jump, which is why I’m taking Detroit with the points.
While there are plenty of things to love about the advantage the Knicks have when it comes to shot creation, the reality is that very little separates these teams statistically. This season, New York has an adjusted net rating of +3.4 and Detroit isn’t far behind at +1.6. The reason for that is that the Pistons are a stronger defensive team, and they aren’t too much worse when it comes to adjusted offensive rating. Also, since the All-Star break, Detroit has a net rating of +4.9. New York’s is down at 0.3. So, for the last couple of months, the Pistons have been the stronger team. Some of that has to do with Brunson being out for New York, but it’s not something that can be thrown out completely.
It’s also hard to ignore Detroit being 22-19 with a net rating of +2.4 on the road this season. This was a competitive group when playing away from home, so I’m not sure I see the Pistons being too overwhelmed by the environment at MSG.
This is also a series in which there are serious question marks when thinking about New York’s defensive scheme. If Towns is in drop coverage for extended periods of time, Cunningham is going to destroy the Knicks with his ability to knock down 3s off the dribble. And that’s something that I see hurting New York early in the series, when things are fresh and big adjustments haven’t been made.
Detroit has also been great with rest this season, going 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS when playing four or fewer games in 10 days. The team is also 3-1 both SU and ATS when playing with three or more days of rest. So, I expect JB Bickerstaff to have his team ready to fight.
Bet: Pistons +7.5 (-115)
NBA Player Props Today – April 19th
Game 1: Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets – 3:30 pm ET
James Harden is on a tear heading into the postseason. The Clippers star has scored at least 23 points in four of his last five games, and he even had a 39-point performance in a massive showdown with the Warriors on April 13th. Harden has now scored 24.6 points per game over his last 11 contests, and I don’t see him slowing down against a Nuggets team that is in amongst the league’s worst in adjusted defensive rating since the start of March.
In four meetings with Denver this season, Harden averaged 23.3 points per game. He also happened to play the Nuggets four times before the All-Star break. Well, before the break, the Nuggets had a defensive rating of 113.7 in 55 games. In the 27 games that Denver played after the break, the team had a defensive rating of 117.8. This has just been an unorganized Nuggets group on that end of the floor, and Harden is one of the most gifted offensive players in league history. And a lot of that has to do with his basketball IQ. Well, if Harden sees anything he can exploit in this series, he’s going to do it. And with so many miserable defenders in Denver’s rotation, I’d be stunned if there aren’t some big Harden games. He’s going to call ball-screen after ball-screen, looking to find matchups to attack. And I like him to start right away.
Bet: Harden Over 22.5 Points (-110)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Pacers ML vs. Bucks & Timberwolves Alt +10.5 vs. Lakers (-104 – 1.5 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 370-374-2 (-0.29 units)
