The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff games on 5/10 and 5/11. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus an opponent averaging 114 PPG or more have had their totals go Over at a 32-18 (64%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-LAL (o/u at 213.5)

* Second round smaller road favorites of -4.5 or fewer (or pick ’em) have struggled over the last decade-plus, having gone 16-25 SU and 14-27 ATS (34.1%) since 2013.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-1.5 at PHI), SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 at MIN)

* #1 seeds are on a 6-17 SU and 9-14 ATS (39.1%) skid as underdogs in the second round.
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+3.5 at CLE)

Trends by Line/Total Range

Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 22-12 SU but just 11-23 ATS (32.4%) since 2016! This is in direct contrast to the first round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 76-53-1 ATS (58.9%) in that span.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-3.5 vs DET)

Second round smaller road favorites of -4.5 or fewer (or pick ’em) have struggled over the last decade-plus, having gone 16-25 SU and 14-27 ATS (34.1%) since 2013.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-1.5 at PHI), SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 at MIN)

Last Game Trends

Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off same-series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 15-32 SU and 19-28 ATS (40.4%) in the follow-up contests in their last 47 playoff tries.
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+3.5 at CLE)

Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 35-20 ATS (63.6%) since 2021.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 vs NYK), MINNESOTA (+4.5 vs SAS), LA LAKERS (+10.5 vs OKC)

There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 41-26-1 Under (61.2%) the total in the last 68.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAS-MIN (o/u at 217.5), DET-CLE (o/u at 212.5)

Second round teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored 127+ points are just 9-13 SU and 6-16 ATS (27.3%) in the follow-up contest. Fourteen of the last 16 of those games have also gone Under the total (87.5%).
Trend Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at LAL)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-LAL (o/u at 213.5)

Trends by Game Number

Oddsmakers pave the road for game 4 profits – An interesting trend that has developed over the last nine playoff seasons finds that second round game 4 favorites are on a surge of 30-13 SU and 24-18-1 ATS (57.1%).
Trend Matches: PLAY ALL FOUR FAVORITES IN GAME 4

Game 3 winners have most often become game 4 winners as well, as they are 15-6 SU and ATS (71.4%) in their last 21 tries.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-1.5 at PHI), SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 at MIN), CLEVELAND (-3.5 vs DET), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at LAL)

Teams up in the series are just 17-23 SU and 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) in their last 40 game 4 tries.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-1.5 at PHI), SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 at MIN), DETROIT (+3.5 at CLE), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at LAL)

Trends by Seed Number

#1 seeds have failed to build on second round momentum in the last five postseasons, going 11-14 SU and 8-17 ATS (32%) in last 25 tries when coming off a same series win.
Trend Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at LAL)

#1 seeds are on a 6-17 SU and 9-14 ATS (39.1%) skid as underdogs in the second round.
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+3.5 at CLE)

#3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 42-24-1 (63.6%) in the last 67.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-PHI (o/u at 215.5)

Teams seeded at #3 in the NBA playoffs have been awful on the road in the second round of late, winning just 16 of their L45 games while going 18-27 ATS (40%).
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-1.5 at PHI)

Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 18-45 SU and 25-37-1 ATS (40.3%) as such since 2015.
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+10.5 vs OKC)

The last 14 #4 seeds trying to fend off elimination in a second round series are just 6-11 SU and 7-10 ATS (41.2%).
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+10.5 vs OKC)

Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 15-28 SU and 18-25 ATS (41.9%) coming back after a same series defeat since 2014.
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+10.5 vs OKC)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination
There is a certain level of pressure that comes with being a heavy favorite in a closeout game. Teams looking to finish a series and favored by 5.5 points or more are 20-10 SU but just 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) since 2013.
Trend Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at LAL)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 104-60 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-PHI (o/u at 215.5), SAS-MIN (o/u at 217.5), OKC-LAL (o/u at 213.5)

* SAN ANTONIO is 20-19 SU and 15-24 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 at MIN)

* DETROIT is 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS (81.3%) as an underdog this season
* CLEVELAND is just 24-27 SU and 16-35 ATS (31.4%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+3.5 at CLE)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 103-22 SU and 73-49-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
* LA LAKERS are 43-17 SU and 40-20 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since January 2024
Trends Match: 1 PLAY ON OKLAHOMA CITY, 1 PLAY ON LA LAKERS

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Sunday, May 10, 2026

(505) NEW YORK at (506) PHILADELPHIA
* Road teams are on 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS run in the PHI-NYK divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-1.5 at PHI)

(507) SAN ANTONIO at (508) MINNESOTA
* Over the total has converted in six of the last eight meetings between MIN and SAS
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SAS (o/u at 217.5)

Monday, May 11, 2026

(509) DETROIT at (510) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 15-4 in the last 19 of the Cavs-Pistons divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (o/u at 212.5)

(511) OKLAHOMA CITY at (512) LA LAKERS
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 9-1 SU and ATS surge against LAL since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at LAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 193-71 SU and 153-110-1 ATS (58.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CLEVELAND vs DET (-3.5 CURRENTLY)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 145-127 (53.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 364-297 (55.1%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-LAL (spread +10.5, total 213.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, home underdogs of 5 points or less have gone 16-42 SU and 19-37-2 ATS (33.9%) since late-April 2021.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 vs NYK)

Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 28-20 OVER (58.3%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-CLE (o/u at 212.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 115-76 SU and 107-81-3 ATS (56.9%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 vs NYK)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 109-25 SU and 74-57-3 ATS (56.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at LAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 40-10 SU but 18-32 ATS (36%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 32-18 (64%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at LAL)
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-LAL (o/u at 213.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 341-390-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 45-179 SU and 98-120-6 ATS (45%).
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at LAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, SAN ANTONIO, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, MINNESOTA ML, DETROIT ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

Game 4 NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+2.1)
2. LA LAKERS +10.5 (+1.5)
3. MINNESOTA +4.5 (+1.1)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +4.5 (+1.3)
2. DETROIT +3.5 (+0.8)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -1.5 (+3.4)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -10.5 (+0.4)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-MIN OVER 217.5 (+1.6)
2. OKC-LAL OVER 213.5 (+0.1)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-PHI UNDER 214.5 (-1.1)
2. DET-CLE UNDER 212.5 (-0.7)

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+2.4)
2. LA LAKERS +10.5 (+1.1)
3. DETROIT +3.5 (+0.5)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-MIN OVER 217.5 (+2.1)
2. DET-CLE OVER 212.5 (+1.4)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-PHI UNDER 214.5 (-4.0)

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