The start of the 2024-25 NBA season is officially here. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who writes up his best bets daily. Also, try and listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Wednesday, October 30th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on October 30th
NBA Best Bets Today – October 30th
New York Knicks at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
The Knicks haven’t looked great to start the year, as they got blown out by the Celtics on Opening Night, rebounded to earn a big home win over the Pacers and then lost to the Cavaliers at Madison Square Garden. New York’s advanced stats profile still looks quite strong, as the team is top 10 in both adjusted offensive rating (114.0) and adjusted defensive rating (111.0). However, the Knicks have predictably seen a big drop in rebounding percentage this year. They’re down from 45.2% in 2023-24 to 40.0% in 2024-25. That move took them from fifth in the league last year to 28th in the league this year. Losing Isaiah Hartenstein, along with some of the overall grit from last year’s roster, will do that to you. And I’m just not sure this current version of the Knicks matches up as well against lunch pail teams like the Heat.
It used to be impossible to out-grit Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks team, but this year’s team can be pushed around. New York leaned heavily into being an offensive-minded team in moving Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo for Karl-Anthony Towns. Well, Miami is still a very good defensive team, as the core of last year’s fifth-ranked adjusted defensive rating defense is back. However, the Heat are also making some real offensive improvements this season. They have really modernized their offense, as they’re taking 38.3 triples per game after shooting only 33.7 per game last year. Miami is also getting a lot more going when driving to the basket.
The Heat’s new-look offense should allow them to find some success against a Knicks team that is no longer impossible to score on. I’m specifically interested in seeing Terry Rozier here. With Miami, people generally talk about Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, but don’t be surprised if Rozier makes a big impact. He has been a walking paint touch this season, and he could have the Knicks scrambling a bit tonight. However, I will say something about Adebayo. This is a matchup in which he should absolutely feast. Adebayo’s strength and motor should give Towns a lot of problems around the basket — on both ends of the floor. Don’t be surprised if he turns in a big night, while also getting Towns in foul trouble.
Of course, Miami has to account for Jalen Brunson, who is one of the best scorers in the league. But I actually think Erik Spoelstra will play Brunson straight up and have the rest of his team stay at home. He won’t want Miami overcommitting and giving up good looks from 3.
In addition to liking the on-court matchup here, the Knicks are also just 15-17 on the road with lines of +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. So, for as good as they have been lately, this situation has given the team trouble.
Bet: Heat +1.5 (-105 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – October 30th
Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 pm ET
RJ Barrett looked good in his return the other night, scoring 20 points in 29 minutes of action against the Nuggets. Barrett didn’t seem limited at all from the injury he suffered in preseason, and he should get back to playing 35 or so minutes tonight. With that in mind, I don’t see any reason not to play him to go Over 21.5 points here. For starters, Barrett averaged 21.8 points per game in 32 contests with the Raptors last season, so this is a bar he has cleared regularly since being traded to Toronto. And Barrett also happens to be going up against a Charlotte team that is 28th in the league in adjusted defensive rating (114.8). So, this matchup is a good one for the Canadian, and it’s not like he’ll have to fight for touches tonight. Toronto will be without Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley here. So, Barrett’s usage rate should be very high. That said, I’m playing him to score 22 or more, but I’m also putting a little something on him to have 25.
Bet: Barrett Over 21.5 Points (-120) & To Score 25+ Points (+145 – 0.5 units)
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 pm ET
Ivica Zubac has been a monster this season. The Clippers big man is averaging 22.7 points, 14.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game. Those numbers probably aren’t sustainable. But Zubac has always been a very good player, and he’s just playing a much bigger role for his team now that Paul George is in Philadelphia and Kawhi Leonard is injured. And as long as his role remains unchanged, there’s really no reason not to play the Over on numbers like this. Zubac averages 41.0 total points, rebounds and assists per game, which is way higher than tonight’s total of 31.5. So, with tonight being a meeting with a Blazers team that is just 21st in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (113.5), I’m rolling with Zubac to go Over the mark. He has done it in all three of Los Angeles’ games this season.
Bet: Zubac Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
Added Plays
Pacers +7 (-105 – 1.5 units) vs. Celtics & Pacers ML (+228 – 0.5 units) – I’m taking a shot on the Pacers here. Boston isn’t going to go undefeated this year, and these are the types of games you can expect the Celtics to lose. Playing on the road against good opponents is tough. And it’s especially tough when you’re playing a team that you beat in the playoffs the year before. Indiana is going to want a little revenge. This Pacers team hasn’t looked great to start the season, as they’re 1-3 and aren’t in the top 10 in either adjusted offensive rating or adjusted defensive rating. But we know Indiana is going to eventually be there on offense, and I trust the Pacers to score against this Celtics defense. Indiana is also 34-24 against the spread as a home underdog under Rick Carlisle, and the team is 25-9 ATS against teams with winning percentages of 70.0% or higher under him. I just can’t imagine this being a blowout, and I believe the Pacers are live.
_________________________________________________
2024-25 NBA Record: 21-14 (+8.35 units)
