We’re nearing the end of the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Monday, March 17th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 17th
NBA Best Bets Today – March 17th
Miami Heat at New York Knicks – 7:30 pm ET
The Heat have lost seven games in a row coming into this one, and this streak really couldn’t have come at a worse time. Miami had a golden opportunity to win the division, but this skid has the Heat sitting 2.5 games behind the Hawks. And honestly, it’s hard to see a scenario in which Miami even makes it interesting down the stretch. Having said that, this is still a team that should be competitive the rest of the way, and we actually just saw the Heat play the Knicks close on March 2nd. That was a game in which Miami had a massive lead, let it get away and eventually fell by four. But it was also a game in which Jalen Brunson was out there. The New York star won’t be playing tonight.
With no Brunson, it’s just hard to see the Knicks busting this game open and winning by eight or more. Sure, the Knicks were able to earn victories over the Kings and Blazers last week, and they also happened to play the Warriors close on Saturday. But this is going to be a tough matchup. Bam Adebayo is one of the best defensive bigs in the league, and he should be able to do a decent job of defending Karl-Anthony Towns. That means that the Heat should be in good shape as long as they can prevent Mikal Bridges from going off. Well, if Andrew Wiggins suits up, he should be able to do a solid job of containing Bridges. And if he doesn’t, perhaps we’ll see more Haywood Highsmith. He’s another good wing defender.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if Erik Spoelstra looks for opportunities to play Adebayo with rookie Kel’el Ware here. We have seen this season that New York can struggle with teams that have size and hit the offensive glass hard.
Bet: Heat +7.5 (-110)
Chicago Bulls at Utah Jazz – 9:00 pm ET
The Jazz got trounced by the Timberwolves yesterday, and they also might have burned a game in which the rest of the starters were graced with Lauri Markkanen’s presence. I’m just not sure Utah will play the 27-year-old two days in a row, and we could also see some other Jazz players sit this one out. However, I’m also not sure the Bulls should be laying a significant amount of points on the road against anyone right now. And that’s especially true with Josh Giddey listed as doubtful. Chicago is already without Lonzo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu, so the talent level isn’t all that high with the Bulls at the moment.
While Chicago has won four of its last five games — and covered in all five — this team is 4-6 both straight-up and against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this year. The Bulls are also just 5-16 SU and 8-13 ATS in non-conference games. Meanwhile, the Jazz are 13-9 ATS in the second half of the season, and they’re also 25-13 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points. These teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to performing against tonight’s number.
We also saw the Jazz earn a 135-126 win over the Bulls in Chicago back in November, when Billy Donovan’s team had much better players. So, I’m taking a shot on Utah to win this one in Salt Lake City. I was able to get a good price on +7.5, so I grabbed that instead of +6. But I’m also taking some moneyline.
Bet: Jazz +7.5 (-139 – 1.5 units) & Jazz ML (+185 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 17th
Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 pm ET
I was on Jaden McDaniels to go Over his combined points, rebounds and assists prop last night, and he did it in the first half of his meeting with the Jazz. McDaniels has now gone Over his PRA number in 18 of his last 21 games. Our NBA Prop Bet Analyzer did a great job of turning me onto this hot stretch for the Minnesota wing, and I don’t see any reason to turn away from it tonight. The total is actually set one number higher than it was last night, but McDaniels has mostly been going way Over when hitting. So, I’m not too concerned. Also, this is a meeting with a Pacers team that is merely average defensively, and Indiana also plays at a top-10 pace in the league. So, it’s hard not to view this as another plus matchup for McDaniels.
Bet: McDaniels Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 pm ET
It feels weird going Over on Austin Reaves’ point total at a number as high as 23.5, but the 26-year-old has been cooking as a scorer lately. Reaves had 28 points against the Bucks on March 13th, 37 against the Nuggets the following night and then 28 against the Suns yesterday. Reaves is now averaging 27.5 points per game in the four games since LeBron James went down with an injury. He has also taken 47 shots over the last two games, with 20 of those attempts being triples. It’s just clear that JJ Redick wants Reaves to feel empowered as a scorer right now, and that’s a good thing heading into a meeting with the Spurs. San Antonio is 25th in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (116.1). This is one of the best matchups a guard can ask for, so I’m playing Reaves to keep it rolling.
Bet: Reaves Over 23.5 Points (-110)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Suns ML vs. Raptors & Kings Alt +7.5 vs. Grizzlies (-154 – 1.5 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 307-313-3 (-3.95 units)
